According to a research report published by Daiwa, even in the face of seasonal factors, that is, merchants are out of business during the Lunar New year, the total payment volume (GPV) of 09923.HK still achieved a good annual and monthly recovery in January, so the company's GPV is expected to grow by 10 to 15 per cent year-on-year for the whole year.
Mobile card management revealed that the industry real yield (Take Rate) is continuing to recover, and there is a lot of room for an increase in QR code payment commission, while the company's overall real yield has rebounded from 10.7bp in 2021 to 12bp in the first half of last year and is expected to reach 14 to 16bp this year. As for gross profit margin, due to the high commission paid by merchants, business development requires incentives, and Daiwa does not expect gross profit margin to rise in the short term.
Daiwa also pointed out that compared with Meituan-W (03690.HK) as a local integrated living service provider, charging various fees from merchants, the card transfer mainly helps merchants get exposure in a short period of time and share according to the actual situation, which is more cost-effective for small and medium-sized businesses.
Due to the longer-than-expected impact of the epidemic, Daiwa cut its mobile card revenue forecast by 8% to 19% from 2022 to 2024, and cut its adjusted net profit forecast by 0.2% to 70% due to increased spending on new business and increased profitability. Daiwa raised its target price from 26 yuan to 30 yuan and reiterated its "outperform" rating.