Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Shenzhen HeungKong Holding Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600162) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd
What Is Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd had CN¥5.63b of debt in September 2022, down from CN¥6.82b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥3.26b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥2.36b.
How Healthy Is Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd had liabilities of CN¥15.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥3.94b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.26b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.20b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥14.7b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥6.50b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While we wouldn't worry about Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.7 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Shareholders should be aware that Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's EBIT was down 41% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's free cash flow amounted to 47% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Shenzhen HeungKong HoldingLtd (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.