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Spirit Realty Capital, Inc.'s (NYSE:SRC) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 12, 2023 06:25

Spirit Realty Capital (NYSE:SRC) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 18% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Spirit Realty Capital's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Spirit Realty Capital

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Spirit Realty Capital is:

5.7% = US$260m ÷ US$4.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.06 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Spirit Realty Capital's Earnings Growth And 5.7% ROE

At first glance, Spirit Realty Capital's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.9%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. On the other hand, Spirit Realty Capital reported a moderate 19% net income growth over the past five years. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

As a next step, we compared Spirit Realty Capital's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 12%.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:SRC Past Earnings Growth January 12th 2023

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Spirit Realty Capital's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Spirit Realty Capital Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Spirit Realty Capital seems to be paying out most of its income as dividends judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 82%, meaning the company retains only 18% of its income. However, this is typical for REITs as they are often required by law to distribute most of their earnings. Despite this, the company's earnings grew moderately as we saw above.

Moreover, Spirit Realty Capital is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of nine years of paying a dividend. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 186% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, it does look like Spirit Realty Capital has some positive aspects to its business. Namely, its high earnings growth. We do however feel that the earnings growth number could have been even higher, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings and paid out less dividends. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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