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We Think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002453) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 9, 2023 19:20

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Great Chinasoft Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002453) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd

What Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had debt of CN¥836.4m, up from CN¥710.4m in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥555.9m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥280.6m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002453 Debt to Equity History January 10th 2023

How Strong Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.31b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥24.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥555.9m and CN¥716.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥59.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This state of affairs indicates that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥10.3b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's net debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Shareholders should be aware that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's EBIT was down 90% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last two years, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

Neither Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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