Saga Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:SGA) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 26%.

Following the firm bounce in price, Saga Communications may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.7x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 8x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's lofty.

For example, consider that Saga Communications' financial performance has been poor lately as it's earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Saga Communications

How Is Saga Communications' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Saga Communications would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 12% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 39% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 7.4% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Saga Communications is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in Saga Communications' shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Saga Communications revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Saga Communications (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Saga Communications. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that sit on P/E's below 20x and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.