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The Five-year Underlying Earnings Growth at China Shengmu Organic Milk (HKG:1432) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 30, 2022 03:20

Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Spare a thought for those who held China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited (HKG:1432) for five whole years - as the share price tanked 77%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 42%. Furthermore, it's down 23% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 20% in the same period.

After losing 14% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for China Shengmu Organic Milk

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, China Shengmu Organic Milk moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 6.6% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growthSEHK:1432 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 30th 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on China Shengmu Organic Milk's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 26% in the twelve months, China Shengmu Organic Milk shareholders did even worse, losing 42%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Shengmu Organic Milk that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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