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BYD's (HKG:1211) Investors Will Be Pleased With Their Enviable 439% Return Over the Last Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 24, 2022 20:30

BYD Company Limited (HKG:1211) shareholders might understandably be very concerned that the share price has dropped 32% in the last quarter. But over the last three years the stock has shone bright like a diamond. The longer term view reveals that the share price is up 438% in that period. As long term investors the recent fall doesn't detract all that much from the longer term story. The thing to consider is whether there is still too much elation around the company's prospects.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for BYD

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

BYD was able to grow its EPS at 9.8% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 75% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 101.28.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growthSEHK:1211 Earnings Per Share Growth September 25th 2022

We know that BYD has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that BYD shares lost 13% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 22%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 24% for each year. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - BYD has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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