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Further Weakness as IQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ) Drops 6.0% This Week, Taking Three-year Losses to 82%

Simply Wall St ·  09/20 23:45

It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ); the share price is down a whopping 82% in the last three years. That would be a disturbing experience. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 61% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 29% in the last 90 days. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

With the stock having lost 6.0% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for iQIYI

iQIYI isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last three years, iQIYI saw its revenue grow by 1.6% per year, compound. Given it's losing money in pursuit of growth, we are not really impressed with that. Nonetheless, it's fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 22%, compound, over three years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. Of course, revenue growth is nice but generally speaking the lower the profits, the riskier the business - and this business isn't making steady profits.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growthNasdaqGS:IQ Earnings and Revenue Growth September 20th 2022

iQIYI is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for iQIYI shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 61%. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 15%, likely weighing on the stock. Shareholders have lost 22% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for iQIYI that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: iQIYI may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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