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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' (NYSE:KNX) Three-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 20, 2022 08:00

It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) share price down 11% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been respectable. In that time the stock gained 40%, besting the market return of 36%.

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During three years of share price growth, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 31% per year. The average annual share price increase of 12% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.93.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growthNYSE:KNX Earnings Per Share Growth September 20th 2022

It is of course excellent to see how Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was 44%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings returned a loss of 3.7% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 15%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

We will like Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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