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Investors Five-year Losses Continue as Country Garden Holdings (HKG:2007) Dips a Further 8.9% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 19, 2022 23:15

Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (HKG:2007) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 81%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 64% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 50% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

Check out our latest analysis for Country Garden Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Country Garden Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.9% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 28% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 4.05.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growthSEHK:2007 Earnings Per Share Growth September 20th 2022

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Country Garden Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Country Garden Holdings' TSR of was a loss of 74% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 21% in the twelve months, Country Garden Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 63%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Country Garden Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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