Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (HKG:168) defied analyst predictions to release its half-yearly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.4% to hit CN¥19b. Tsingtao Brewery also reported a statutory profit of CN¥1.27, which was an impressive 83% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tsingtao Brewery

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tsingtao Brewery's 30 analysts is for revenues of CN¥32.4b in 2022, which would reflect an okay 4.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 9.6% to CN¥2.38 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥32.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.34 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$84.75. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tsingtao Brewery at HK$105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$64.91. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tsingtao Brewery's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tsingtao Brewery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Tsingtao Brewery is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Tsingtao Brewery's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tsingtao Brewery analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tsingtao Brewery has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.