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The Five-year Loss for China Cinda Asset Management (HKG:1359) Shareholders Likely Driven by Its Shrinking Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  {{timeTz}}

For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. (HKG:1359), since the last five years saw the share price fall 65%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 15% in the last 90 days.

While the stock has risen 3.8% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for China Cinda Asset Management

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, China Cinda Asset Management's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 7.5% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 19% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 3.26.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growthSEHK:1359 Earnings Per Share Growth August 17th 2022

We know that China Cinda Asset Management has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of China Cinda Asset Management, it has a TSR of -50% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that China Cinda Asset Management returned a loss of 16% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 17%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Cinda Asset Management (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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