After the Biden administration was accused of manipulating data to drive down oil prices, it was questioned that non-farm data were "falsified".

A report released by the Labor Department on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls grew sharply in July and the labor force participation rate fell slightly, but wages rose strongly, highlighting the continued strength of the US labour market.

However, some analysts pointed out that the job market situation is not so optimistic, some problems surfaced, 1.8 million unexplained employment gaps, and the number of workers reached an all-time high. The differences and inconsistencies between institutional and household surveys have just reached the "escape speed" (to avoid recession) and seem to be "intentional".

There are signs that the employment data are very abnormal.

There have been some very strange developments in the US non-farm reports in June and July, in which there is a clear gap between household and institutional surveys in the monthly employment report, which has been declining since March while the latter has been rising every month.

For the first time, the number of new jobs surveyed by the agency was unusually hot, not only surging when the US entered a "technical recession" last week, but also reaching a five-month high of 528000, double the consensus forecast of 250000. Wage increases have also been higher than expected, leading many to believe that calls for a recession are too early.

But this contradicts third-party data such as new job losses and recent layoffs at major companies, which have soared since May but are unexpectedly not reflected in the Labor Department data.

Second, even if external data sources are ignored, when judging from the Labor Department's household survey, the change in jobs was much smaller in June, at 179000, compared with 315000 last month.

The number of workers has reached an all-time high. The labor market is not optimistic.

At the same time, the report showed that full-time jobs fell sharply, while the number of workers employed soared to an all-time high. Institutional surveys have been rising steadily since around March, while household surveys show no progress at all, with 1.8 million unexplained employment gaps.

In fact, since March, institutional surveys show that employment has increased by 1.68 million, while household surveys show a decrease of 168000.

Of these, the decline in household survey employment is the result of a decline in the number of full-time and part-time workers, with 141000 full-time employees and 78000 part-time workers falling since March. The Labor Department agency survey shows that the full-time labor force in the United States has decreased by 71000, while the number of low-income part-time workers has increased by 384000.

Although the total number of employees (household surveys) is stagnant, the number of multiple workers has been growing steadily, reaching a new high of 263000 in June, in sharp contrast to the sharp decline in full-time staff.

What's more, the record number of workers in junior and intermediate jobs is not characteristic of a strong job market where people can resign at will. Fewer and fewer people are working, but more and more people are engaged in more than one job.

Analysts point out that because institutional surveys are much slower to detect nuances in the composition of jobs, household surveys have been stagnant since March, driven by the White House (especially now that the economy is in a technological recession). Make it look as if the economy is growing strongly, when in fact, all they are doing is applying the wrong seasonal adjustment.

Zerohedge, a notoriously venomous financial blog, joked that although the labour market is no longer optimistic, it will take months for the BLS data to reflect this before the government can accept the fact of a "recession", probably after the mid-term elections.