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Earnings are growing at FinVolution Group (NYSE:FINV) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 1, 2022 10:55

FinVolution Group (NYSE:FINV) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been less than pleasing. In fact the stock is down 36% in the last year, well below the market return.

After losing 9.7% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for FinVolution Group

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Even though the FinVolution Group share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

FinVolution Group managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growthNYSE:FINV Earnings and Revenue Growth August 1st 2022

We know that FinVolution Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling FinVolution Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, FinVolution Group's TSR for the last 1 year was -33%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

FinVolution Group shareholders are down 33% for the year (even including dividends), falling short of the market return. The market shed around 11%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Investors are up over three years, booking 8% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for FinVolution Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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