A week ago, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:AROW) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.9% to hit US$37m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.75, some 5.6% above whatthe analyst had expected. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Arrow Financial

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Arrow Financial from sole analyst is for revenues of US$147.5m in 2022 which, if met, would be a satisfactory 4.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.98, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$145.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.93 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analyst has updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$34.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analyst, with revenue forecast to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.6% annually. So although Arrow Financial is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analyst holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to sales forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.