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The one-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Canggang Railway (HKG:2169) shareholders as stock falls 22% over the past week

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 6, 2022 19:40

It's been a soft week for Canggang Railway Limited (HKG:2169) shares, which are down 22%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been pleasing. In that time we've seen the stock easily surpass the market return, with a gain of 35%.

In light of the stock dropping 22% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.

View our latest analysis for Canggang Railway

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year, Canggang Railway actually saw its earnings per share drop 3.0%.

Sometimes companies will sacrifice EPS in the short term for longer term gains; and in that case we may be able to find other positives. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the Canggang Railway's share price. The slightly diminished revenue is not particularly impressive, at a glance, so that doesn't explain the share price boost.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growthSEHK:2169 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2022

Take a more thorough look at Canggang Railway's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Canggang Railway, it has a TSR of 42% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Canggang Railway shareholders should be happy with the total gain of 42% over the last twelve months, including dividends. Unfortunately the share price is down 13% over the last quarter. Shorter term share price moves often don't signify much about the business itself. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Canggang Railway is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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