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Earnings are growing at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002839) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 22, 2022 19:58

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (SZSE:002839) share price managed to fall 62% over five long years. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 5.6%.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

While the share price declined over five years, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 13% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SZSE:002839 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 22nd 2022

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was -58%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 10% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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