Inflation in the United States is close to its highest level in 40 years, posing challenges for households, businesses and government policy makers. Is the abnormal wave of price rise nearing its peak? If so, how long will inflation slow? Most importantly, where will inflation stabilize in the long run?

Economists give several signals to anticipate US inflation:

1. Short-term inflation momentum

The most closely watched inflation data is the year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of price increases for a month compared with the same period a year ago. Lou Crandall, chief analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the indicator helped measure longer-term inflation trends, it was likely to focus too much on past inflation levels. He and other economists depict the changes in CPI, which better reflect recent inflationary trends, from three months ago and from the same period last year.

2、PotentialInflation rate

These short-term factors of rising oil or food prices do not reflect overall price pressures in the economy. But economists have developed data that identify inflation in the economy as a whole. Alex Lin, senior US economist at Bank of America Corporation Global Research, recommends looking at the Cleveland Fed's 16% truncated average CPI (16% trimmed-mean CPI), which excludes the most extreme price movements, leaving most of the price movements in the middle, which can better explain how inflation is formed.

3、The commodities spree is over.

In the early stages of the epidemic, demand for manufactured goods surged, while demand for services fell sharply. At the same time, due to the disruption of the supply chain related to the epidemic, there is an imbalance between supply and demand, resulting in a serious shortage of commodities and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to measure whether this is happening is to track changes in the balance of the two main categories of expenditure in the monthly personal consumption expenditure report of the Ministry of Commerce.

4、An overheated labor market
As consumers shift back to services, it will be important to focus on wage growth, which tends to be more dependent on labour than goods production, Alex Lin said. He said:

If you chart the trend over a period of time, you will find that wages and service inflation complement each other.

He recommends keeping a close eye on the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking system, which also allows users to filter data by salary level, demographic group and other factors. A more useful comparison is the number of job-hoppers and the number of workers left in place.

5. RentCost

Rapid wage growth will increase the income of Americans and push up the price of everything-especially the cost of housing. Housing prices are key to understanding the direction of inflation, as housing costs account for nearly 1/3 of CPI. Aichi Amemiya, an American economist at Nomura Securities, suggests looking at Zillow's rent index and Apartment List's rent estimates to better understand housing cost trends.

6. The automobile market is the key

Amemiya says prices in the car market have accounted for a large proportion of overall inflation over the past year. Cars and parts accounted for 1.3% of the 8.3% CPI growth in April. Among them, second-hand cars are the biggest factor. If inflation is to fall sharply, the price of used cars must fall. Amemiya recommends looking at Manheim's used-car value index, which tends to be a month or two ahead of the CPI series.

7、易The part affected by the epidemic
Tourism in particular-particularly air tickets, hotels and car rentals-is vulnerable to the epidemic. One way to measure consumer attitudes to the epidemic is through the number of passengers at airport checkpoints announced by the U.S. Transportation Safety Administration, Amemiya said. The data is updated every day and is close to the real-time indicator.

8. Oil futures

Soaring energy prices have been the main cause of inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit an all-time high this year. If you look at the price of US crude oil futures contracts, you can roughly see where oil prices are likely to reach in a few months or a year. In the short term, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) updates retail gasoline prices every week. The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides state and national gasoline prices on a daily basis.

Us regular gasoline, all gasoline retail prices:

9. Inflation expectations
Once people begin to notice inflation, it will inflate itself. That's why so-called inflation expectations are a cause for concern, says Alex Lin. The median inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey are indicators of inflation expectations that resent good ones. He said:

We have seen some kind of rebound-their levels seem to be in line with the 2 per cent inflation the Fed is trying to set, but if they continue to climb, they will cause more panic.