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7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again

7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again

在市場再次崩盤之前應避開7只大盤股
InvestorPlace ·  2022/05/24 06:41

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  • While large-capitalization firms are generally solid bets, during recessionary cycles, they're liable for heart-wrenching drops, making them stocks to avoid.
  • Apple (AAPL): Guaranteed to arouse anger, it's nevertheless worrying that famed investor Michael Burry is short Apple.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Another crowd favorite, TSLA is sure to rise again but for now, market conditions make it one of the large-cap stocks to avoid.
  • Meta Platforms (FB): Neither the social media firm's transition to the metaverse nor its core business looks appealing at the moment.
  • Comcast (CMCSA): As competition in the digital entertainment space intensifies, CMCSA increasingly looks lost, thus being one of the stocks to avoid.
  • Nike (NKE): Although it's one of the world's most recognizable brands, the market is sending bad signals for NKE, justifying its inclusion on this list of stocks to avoid.
  • United Parcel Service (UPS): With competition intensifying and e-commerce declining as a whole, UPS is likely one of the large-cap stocks to avoid.
  • Salesforce (CRM): Against a backdrop of rising inflation and reduced economic sentiment, CRM seems liable for a sharp correction.
  • 儘管大盤股公司通常是穩健的賭注,但在衰退週期中,它們可能會出現令人心碎的下跌,這使它們成爲值得避開的股票。
  • 蘋果AAPL):這肯定會引起憤怒,但令人擔憂的是,著名投資者邁克爾·伯裏做空蘋果。
  • 特斯拉TSLA):另一個受衆喜愛的TSLA肯定會再次上漲,但就目前而言,市場狀況使其成爲值得避開的大盤股之一。
  • 元平臺FB):目前,這家社交媒體公司向元宇宙的過渡及其核心業務看起來都沒有吸引力。
  • 康卡斯特CMCSA):隨着數字娛樂領域競爭的加劇,CMCSA越來越顯得迷失方向,因此成爲值得避開的股票之一。
  • 耐克NKE):儘管它是世界上最知名的品牌之一,但市場正在向NKE發出了不好的信號,證明將其列入這份應避免的股票清單是合理的。
  • 聯合包裹服務UPS):隨着競爭的加劇和電子商務的整體下滑,UPS可能是值得避開的大盤股之一。
  • 銷售部隊CRM):在通貨膨脹率上升和經濟景氣低迷的背景下,CRM似乎有可能出現大幅調整。
Source: Shutterstock
來源:Shutterstock

In arguably most normal circumstances, investing in large-capitalization companies often represents a solid deal since you're directing funds toward the most established and proven businesses. But in acutely negative circumstances — say right before a recession, depression or black swan event — many firms in this rarefied category can become stocks to avoid.

可以說,在大多數正常情況下,投資大市值公司通常是一筆不錯的交易,因爲你要將資金引向最成熟和最成熟的企業。但是,在嚴重負面的情況下,比如在經濟衰退、蕭條或黑天鵝事件之前,許多屬於這種稀缺類別的公司可能會成爲值得避開的股票。

Essentially, these investments suffer from a math problem. I'm sure you've heard of the phrase, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Well, it's the same principle with large-cap stocks to avoid. During the good times, they accrue massive amounts of investor dollars. But when things go awry, this segment can suffer an avalanche of volatility.

從本質上講,這些投資存在數學問題。我敢肯定你聽說過這句話,它們越大,摔得越難。好吧,避開大盤股的原則也是一樣的。在景氣時期,他們積累了大量的投資者資金。但是,當事情出現問題時,該細分市場可能會遭受巨大的波動。

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Second, the major blue chips often play the role of de-facto economic indicators. For instance, all eyes were glued to the earnings reports of big-box retailers Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT), regardless of whether they owned shares or not. For observers, these companies provide the pulse of the American consumer economy and their poor results further support the argument about large-cap stocks to avoid.

其次,主要藍籌股往往發揮着事實上的經濟指標的作用。例如,所有人的目光都集中在大型零售商的收益報告上 沃爾瑪(Walmart) (紐約證券交易所:WMT) 和 目標 (紐約證券交易所:TGT),無論他們是否擁有股份。對於觀察者來說,這些公司提供了美國消費經濟的脈搏,其糟糕的業績進一步支持了關於應避免的大盤股的論點。

Ticker
Ticker
Company
公司
Current Price
當前價格
AAPL
AAPL
Apple $137.59
蘋果 137.59 美元
TSLA
TSLA
Tesla $663.90
特斯拉 663.90 美元
FB
FB
Meta Platforms $193.54
Meta Platforms 193.54 美元
CMCSA
CMCSA
Comcast $42.01
康卡斯特 42.01 美元
NKE
NKE
Nike $108.00
耐克 108.00 美元
UPS
UPS
United Parcel Service $171.04
聯合包裹服務 171.04 美元
CRM
CRM
Salesforce $159.65
Salesforce 159.65 美元

Apple (AAPL)

蘋果 (AAPL)

As anybody who has written about the investment sector can appreciate, mentioning anything negative about consumer electronics giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) can be hazardous to your inbox. So, I'm going to weasel my way out of the criticism by proverbially throwing Michael Burry under the bus. You see, the trader from The Big Short has made yet another bold move, this time shorting AAPL stock.

正如任何寫過有關投資領域的文章的人都可以理解的那樣,提及任何關於消費電子巨頭的負面信息 蘋果 (納斯達克:AAPL) 可能對您的收件箱有危險。所以,俗話說,我要把邁克爾·伯裏扔到公共汽車下來擺脫批評。你看,來自的交易者 大空頭 又採取了大膽的舉動,這次是做空AAPL股票。

Gaining fame and notoriety for betting against the housing bubble and profiting handsomely during the subprime mortgage crisis, Burry purchased put options against 206,000 Apple shares. Notably, he's going head to head with the Oracle of Omaha himself, Warren Buffett, who purchased $600 million worth of AAPL stock last quarter.

伯裏因押注房地產泡沫並在次級抵押貸款危機期間獲利豐厚而聲名狼藉,他購買了20.6萬股蘋果股票的看跌期權。值得注意的是,他將與奧馬哈甲骨文本人沃倫·巴菲特正面交鋒,後者在上個季度購買了價值6億美元的AAPL股票。

So, who's going to win in the battle of the titans? If I were a betting man, I'm going to go with Burry. From a technical perspective, AAPL is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid, shedding 24% of its market value on a year-to-date basis. Fundamentally, rising inflation poses huge restrictions on discretionary purchases, making AAPL less credible in 2022.

那麼,誰會在泰坦之戰中獲勝呢?如果我是一個博彩愛好者,我會選擇伯裏。從技術角度來看,AAPL是值得避開的大盤股之一,今年迄今已下跌其市值的24%。從根本上講,通貨膨脹率上升對全權購買構成了巨大限制,使得 AAPL 在 2022 年的可信度降低。

Tesla (TSLA)

特斯拉 (TSLA)

Another publicly traded security that arouses intense loyalty among its fans, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) — the house that revered entrepreneur Elon Musk built (or at least that's the popular narrative) — is currently suffering from un-Tesla like volatility. On the recent May 18 session, TSLA imploded by a magnitude of nearly 7%. If that wasn't worrying enough, shares are down almost 44% YTD.

另一種在粉絲中引起強烈忠誠的公開交易證券, 特斯拉 (納斯達克:TSLA)——受人尊敬的企業家埃隆·馬斯克建造的房子(或者至少這是流行的說法)——目前正遭受Un-Tesla等波動的影響。在最近的5月18日交易中,TSLA暴跌了近7%。如果這還不夠令人擔憂的話,股價年初至今下跌了近44%。

So, from a technical perspective, Tesla is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid. But doesn't that make it a compelling discount? After all, electric vehicles are the future. Moreover, Tesla commands brand cachet that will be difficult — some might say impossible — to usurp.

因此,從技術角度來看,特斯拉是值得避開的大盤股之一。但這不是一個引人注目的折扣嗎?畢竟,電動汽車是未來。此外,特斯拉的品牌聲望很難被篡奪,有些人可能會說這是不可能的。

Well, for starters, the aforementioned cachet will be put to the test with several premium EV startups poised to challenge Tesla's throne. On a broader level, though, it's possible that Tesla has already reached peak sales under the present paradigm. Simply put, EVs remain out of the reach of many households and rising inflation will exacerbate this challenge.

好吧,首先,上述聲望將受到考驗,幾家高端電動汽車初創公司準備挑戰特斯拉的王位。但是,在更廣泛的層面上,在目前的模式下,特斯拉可能已經達到銷售峯值。簡而言之,電動汽車仍然是許多家庭無法獲得的,通貨膨脹率上升將加劇這一挑戰。

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Tesla can come back from the malaise but I'd probably wait for a better signal.

特斯拉可以從不景氣中恢復過來,但我可能會等待更好的信號。

Meta Platforms (FB)

Meta Platforms (FB)

I'm torn about Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) because its core Facebook business is social media done right (or right-ish). True, the social network has courted more than its fair share of controversies. However, the scope of influence is unprecedented and Facebook offers a utilitarian profile that competing platforms lack. Arguably, this is the main reason why Facebook's age demographics are more evenly distributed and less peaky than its rivals.

我被嚇壞了 元平臺 (納斯達克:FB)因爲其Facebook的核心業務是社交媒體做得對(或做對了)。誠然,該社交網絡引發的爭議遠遠超過了應有的爭議。但是,影響範圍是前所未有的,Facebook提供了競爭平臺所缺乏的功利主義形象。可以說,這是Facebook的年齡人口結構比競爭對手分佈更均勻、不那麼高峰的主要原因。

But the thing is, we must set aside our personal feelings about our prospective investments and recognize when certain initiatives are simply not working. The fact that FB has suffered a 43% decline YTD and is down 40% over the trailing year may be enough for some folks to put it in a list of large-cap stocks to avoid.

但問題是,我們必須拋開對未來投資的個人感受,認識到某些舉措何時根本行不通。FB年初至今下跌了43%,在過去的一年中下跌了40%,這一事實可能足以讓一些人將其列入需要避免的大盤股名單。

Another issue that works against Meta Platforms is its transition to the metaverse. Personally, I've joined the chorus of critics that say the innovation is overhyped. In a world of shortened attention spans, it's possible that Meta is betting big on a passing fad. Therefore, you might want to stay away.

另一個不利於Meta Platforms 的問題是它向元宇宙的過渡。就我個人而言,我加入了批評者的行列,他們說這項創新被誇大了。在注意力跨度縮短的世界中,Meta 可能將賭注押在過時時尚上。因此,你可能想遠離。

Comcast (CMCSA)

康卡斯特 (CMCSA)

In the rough and tumble world of Wall Street boardrooms, cynical thinking dominates. Therefore, more than one high-profile investor likely thought that the damage done to Disney (NYSE:DIS) should bode well for rival Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA). The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that jazz.

在華爾街董事會的艱難世界中,憤世嫉俗的思維占主導地位。因此,可能有不止一位知名投資者認爲損害對他們造成了損害 迪士尼 (紐約證券交易所:DIS) 對競爭對手來說應該是個好兆頭 康卡斯特 (納斯達克:CMCSA)。我敵人的敵人是我的朋友和所有爵士樂。

Unfortunately in some cases, the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy. While CMCSA is "only" down 17% YTD — compared to the awful 34% YTD loss for DIS — it's not much of a consolation. Further, while the political winds don't favor Disney due to its stance on certain issues, let's not forget that Comcast isn't exactly winning over hearts and minds.

不幸的是,在某些情況下,我敵人的敵人仍然是我的敵人。儘管CMCSA年初至今 “僅” 下降了17%,而DIS年初至今的虧損爲34%,但這並不令人安慰。此外,儘管由於迪士尼在某些問題上的立場,政治風向並不偏向迪士尼,但我們不要忘記康卡斯特並沒有完全贏得民心。

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Fundamentally, the media and entertainment giant appears to be running out of ideas to distinguish itself in a crowded field. For instance, a few weeks ago, CMCSA slumped due to slowing broadband subscriber growth. Further, it might lack the legs to be truly competitive in the content front. There are only so many sequels and spinoffs of the Fast and Furious franchise that you can milk before consumers get tired of it.

從根本上講,這家媒體和娛樂巨頭似乎已經沒有甚麼想法可以在擁擠的領域中脫穎而出。例如,幾周前,由於寬帶用戶增長放緩,CMCSA 暴跌。此外,它可能缺乏在內容方面真正具有競爭力的能力。的續集和衍生作品只有那麼多 速度與激情 特許經營權可以在消費者厭倦之前擠奶。

Nike (NKE)

耐克 (NKE)

One of the most powerful consumer brands in the world, Nike (NYSE:NKE) benefitted handsomely from the new normal. With millions of corporate employees forced to work from home to mitigate the wider impact of the coronavirus, office wear was out and casual attire was in. Well, nothing spells casual — with a splash of sophistication — than Nike.

世界上最強大的消費品牌之一, 耐克 (紐約證券交易所:NKE)從新常態中受益匪淺。數以百萬計的企業員工被迫在家工作,以減輕冠狀病毒的更廣泛影響,辦公服已經過時,休閒服裝開始流行。好吧,沒有甚麼比耐克更具休閒氣息的了。

However, it's quite possible that work from home may soon come to an end. Some managers have expressed frustration with the lack of accountability that telecommuting can at times engender. While most worker bees are not happy about getting recalled to the office, here's the thing: with layoffs increasing due to recessionary pressures, not going back to the office can make one stand out for all the wrong reasons.

但是,在家工作很可能很快就會結束。一些經理對遠程辦公有時會導致缺乏問責製表示沮喪。雖然大多數工蜂對被召回辦公室並不滿意,但事實是:由於衰退壓力,裁員人數增加, 出於種種錯誤的理由,回到辦公室可能會讓人脫穎而出。

If this scenario plays out at scale, we'll see a pivot in consumer habits: out with casual wear, in with office-acceptable attire. Factor in rising inflation and it's not difficult to understand why NKE is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid: the negativity in the charts is confirming the pessimistic pivot in the consumer economy.

如果這種情況大規模發生,我們將看到消費者習慣的轉變:穿休閒裝,改穿辦公室可以接受的服裝。將通貨膨脹率上升考慮在內,不難理解爲甚麼NKE是值得避免的大盤股之一:圖表中的負面情緒證實了消費經濟的悲觀支點。

United Parcel Service (UPS)

聯合包裹服務 (UPS)

When Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) sparked the e-commerce revolution, United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) was a go-to recipient of downwind benefits. Indeed, the more widgets and gadgets that Amazon sold, the busier UPS was delivering them to households across America. It was a beautiful relationship until Amazon had the grand idea of shipping its own products.

甚麼時候 亞馬遜 (納斯達克:AMZN)引發了電子商務革命, 聯合包裹服務 (紐約證券交易所:UPS)是順風補助的首選接受者。事實上,亞馬遜出售的小部件和小工具越多,UPS就越繁忙地將其運送到美國各地的家庭。在亞馬遜有了發貨自己的產品的好主意之前,這是一段美好的關係。

With Amazon's Prime delivery service, the e-commerce giant is further competing with UPS and rival FedEx (NYSE:FDX), arguably another name among large-cap stocks to avoid. Anecdotally, Amazon-branded couriers have become rather ubiquitous. And if you think about it, each sighting represents a loss of market share for UPS and its ilk.

藉助亞馬遜的Prime配送服務,這家電子商務巨頭正在進一步與UPS和競爭對手競爭 聯邦快遞 (紐約證券交易所:FDX),可以說是大盤股中值得避開的另一個名字。有趣的是,亞馬遜品牌的快遞已經變得無處不在。如果你仔細想想,每一次目擊都意味着UPS及其同類產品的市場份額的損失。

But perhaps the bigger issue with UPS is that Covid-19-related spike in e-commerce transactions was relatively short-lived. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, e-commerce as a percentage of all retail sales peaked in the second quarter of 2020 at 15.7% Since then, this metric has steadily declined, with the most recent count in Q4 2021 sitting at 12.9%.

但也許UPS最大的問題是,與COVID-19相關的電子商務交易激增相對較短。根據美國人口普查局的數據,電子商務佔所有零售額的百分比在2020年第二季度達到峯值,爲15.7%。此後,該指標穩步下降,2021年第四季度的最新數據爲12.9%。

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Frankly, that's not helpful at all for UPS stock.

坦率地說,這對UPS股票根本沒有幫助。

Salesforce (CRM)

銷售部隊 (CRM)

A cloud-based software company specializing in customer relationship management (CRM) platforms, Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is one of the biggest success stories in the technology realm, demonstrating the power of wagering on a great idea before the big wave hits. But now that this wave has already materialized, investors may want to consider an exit plan.

一家專門從事客戶關係管理 (CRM) 平臺的基於雲的軟件公司, 銷售部隊 (紐約證券交易所:CRM)是科技領域最大的成功案例之一,展示了在巨浪來臨之前押注一個好主意的力量。但既然這波浪潮已經出現,投資者可能想考慮退出計劃。

On a YTD basis, CRM stock has lost over 38% of market value. Over the trailing six months, it has tanked nearly 46%. Since 2018, CRM looks like it is charting a bearish broadening wedge formation, which implies that following a dead-cat bounce, the equity unit is liable to even more sharply. Problematically, the fundamentals don't provide much encouragement for stakeholders.

年初至今,CRM股票已下跌超過市值的38%。在過去的六個月中,它已經下跌了近46%。自2018年以來,CRM似乎正在形成看跌的擴大楔形形態,這意味着在出現死貓反彈之後,該股票單位的漲幅可能會更加劇烈。問題是,基本面並沒有給利益相關者帶來太大的鼓勵。

Although Salesforce and cloud computing are relevant, the pressing issue is that a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and brewing fears of a recession could impact the company's clients in terms of software spending. That would then trickle back up to Salesforce, forcing the software provider to lean out its own operations.

儘管Salesforce和雲計算很重要,但緊迫的問題是,高通脹、利率上升和對經濟衰退的擔憂可能在軟件支出方面影響公司的客戶。然後,這將滲透回Salesforce,迫使軟件提供商精簡自己的業務。

It's just not a great look, making CRM one of the large-cap stocks to avoid for now.

這看起來不太好,這使CRM成爲目前值得避開的大盤股之一。

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

出版之日,Josh Enomoto 沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com的約束出版指南

The post 7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again appeared first on InvestorPlace.

《在市場再次崩盤之前應避開的7只大盤股》一文首次出現在InvestorPlace上。

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