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Australia raises interest rates for first time in more than a decade

Australia raises interest rates for first time in more than a decade

澳大利亞十多年來首次加息
Moomoo News ·  2022/05/03 02:35

By James Glynn and David Winning

詹姆斯·格林和大衞獲勝

SYDNEY -- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, acting to tame elevated inflation that is threatening the country's economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

悉尼--澳大利亞儲備銀行十多年來首次上調基準利率,採取行動馴服高企的通脹,這種通脹正在威脅該國從新冠肺炎大流行中的經濟復甦。

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 0.35%, from 0.10%, and signaled further increases are likely as it seeks to bring long-term inflation back toward its 2%-3% target. It represents a significant gear shift by the RBA, which as recently as March had been signaling patience even as other global central banks laid the groundwork for aggressive moves to tighten monetary policy.

澳大利亞央行將現金利率從0.10%上調至0.35%,並暗示可能會進一步加息,以求將長期通脹率拉回2%-3%的目標。這代表着澳大利亞央行的重大轉變。就在今年3月,就在其他全球央行還在為大舉收緊貨幣政策奠定基礎的時候,澳大利亞央行還發出了保持耐心的信號。

The Federal Reserve has signposted a rapid series of interest-rate increases as U.S. inflation runs at its fastest pace in decades and the labor market remains extremely tight. The Bank of Canada recently lifted its target for the overnight rate by a half-percentage point from 0.50% to 1.0%, its biggest rate increase in over two decades. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by a half-percentage point last month, and left the door open to another similar oversize increase at its May meeting.

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)宣佈了一系列快速加息的信號,因為美國通脹正以數十年來最快的速度運行,勞動力市場仍然極其緊張。加拿大央行最近將隔夜利率目標從0.50%上調0.5個百分點至1.0%,這是20多年來最大幅度的加息。新西蘭儲備銀行上個月將政策利率上調了0.5個百分點,並在5月份的會議上為再次進行類似的超大規模加息敞開了大門。

Australia shows how inflation can become a problem even while an economy benefits from higher prices of key exports, such as iron ore and coal, as the war in Ukraine heightens concerns around shortages of key commodities and Covid-related lockdowns in the key manufacturing hub of Shanghai disrupt supply chains.

澳大利亞的情況表明,即便一個經濟體受益於鐵礦石和煤炭等關鍵出口商品價格的上漲,通脹也可能成為一個問題,因為烏克蘭戰爭加劇了人們對關鍵大宗商品短缺的擔憂,以及關鍵製造業中心上海因霜凍導致的封鎖擾亂了供應鏈。

The consumer-price index rose 5.1% on year in the first quarter, with core inflation also soaring above the RBA's inflation target at 3.7% on year. Economists noted that quarterly inflation has only been higher once in the past three decades: when Australia introduced a 10% goods and services tax in July 2000.

第一季度消費者價格指數同比上漲5.1%,核心通脹率也飆升至3.7%,高於澳大利亞央行的通脹目標。經濟學家指出,在過去30年中,季度通脹率只有一次比這更高:2000年7月,澳大利亞引入了10%的商品和服務税。

The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time. This will require a further lift in interest rates over the period ahead."

- RBA Gov. Philip Lowe said in a statement explaining the central bank's decision on Tuesday. 

董事會致力於採取必要措施,確保澳大利亞的通脹率隨着時間的推移回到目標水平。這將需要在未來一段時間內進一步提高利率。

--澳洲央行總裁洛威週二在一份解釋央行決定的聲明中稱。

Mr. Lowe forecast core inflation of around 4.75% this year, with headline CPI of around 6%. The RBA expects both inflation measures to return to around 3% by the middle of 2024, he said.

洛威預計,今年的核心通脹率約為4.75%,整體CPI約為6%。他説,澳洲央行預計到2024年年中,這兩項通脹指標都將回到3%左右。

Australian businesses are having a tough time riding out the impact of elevated inflation, while surveys suggest consumers are increasingly downbeat and tightening budgets. The RBA's interest-rate rise also comes at a sensitive time politically, with the rising cost of living becoming a key issue in Australia's national election later this month.

澳大利亞企業很難安然度過高通脹的影響,而調查顯示,消費者越來越悲觀,預算收緊。澳大利亞央行加息的時機也很敏感,生活成本上升將成為本月晚些時候澳大利亞全國大選的一個關鍵問題。

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd., which collects household trash in cities including Sydney, on Tuesday warned that rising fuel prices and labor shortages meant it was likely to miss expectations for annual profits. Recent flooding in Australia's east coast has also pushed up costs by damaging property, vehicles and equipment while forcing a landfill site to close temporarily.

在悉尼等城市收集生活垃圾的Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd.週二警告稱,不斷上漲的燃料價格和勞動力短缺意味着該公司可能達不到對年度利潤的預期。澳大利亞東海岸最近發生的洪災還破壞了財產、車輛和設備,並迫使一個垃圾填埋場暫時關閉,從而推高了成本。

Joshua Phipps said he is having to offer bigger wages to retain staff at MarketMakers, the small residential blinds and curtains supplier that he co-founded in southwest Sydney. At the same time, shipping costs for imported supplies from factories in China have quadrupled, he said.

約書亞·菲普斯説,他不得不開出更高的工資來留住做市商的員工,這是一家他在悉尼西南部與人共同創立的小型住宅百葉窗和窗簾供應商。他説,與此同時,從中國工廠進口物資的運輸成本增加了四倍。

The talk that there hasn't been wage rises is garbage as far as I'm concerned. We've paid all staff 5% for the last two years."

- said Mr. Phipps, 51.

在我看來,沒有加薪的説法是無稽之談。在過去的兩年裏,我們向所有員工支付了5%的工資。

--51歲的菲普斯説。

Still, he said business is booming for now and the company has been able to pass on some of the increased costs to customers.

儘管如此,他説,目前業務正在蓬勃發展,公司已經能夠將增加的部分成本轉嫁給客户。

Higher borrowing costs will test the stability of Australia's housing market, which is one of the most indebted in the developed world. The RBA last raised interest rates in November 2010. Around one million homeowners with mortgages across the country have never experienced a time when interest rates were going up.

借貸成本上升將考驗澳大利亞房地產市場的穩定性,該國是發達國家中負債最高的國家之一。澳洲央行上次升息是在2010年11月。全國約有100萬擁有抵押貸款的房主從未經歷過利率上升的時期。

Emma Edmonds is one of them. The 30-year-old got a first foothold on the property ladder around a decade ago and took on a mortgage of 700,000 Australian dollars, equivalent to $494,000, three years ago when moving to the South Sydney home where she lives with her family, including three children.

艾瑪·埃德蒙茲就是其中之一。這位30歲的女士大約十年前在房地產階梯上第一次站穩腳跟,三年前搬到她和包括三個孩子在內的家人住在悉尼南部的家中時,獲得了70萬澳元的抵押貸款,相當於49.4萬美元。

Having not seen a rate rise in the 11 years of having a mortgage you get comfortable and you do forget that it could always go up at any second." 

- she said.

在擁有抵押貸款的11年裏,你沒有看到利率上升,你會感到舒服,但你確實忘記了,利率總是可能在任何時候上升。

--她説。

Ms. Edmonds said she knows many people with several credit cards from different banks who are vulnerable to rising borrowing costs. "I know that if the rates go up, they are going to be not comfortable at all," she said.

埃德蒙茲説,她認識許多人,他們擁有幾張來自不同銀行的信用卡,很容易受到借貸成本上升的影響。“我知道,如果利率上升,他們會感到很不舒服,”她説。

Market bets suggest the RBA could raise interest rates by around 2.5 percentage points by December, inclusive of Tuesday's increase.

市場押注顯示,包括週二的加息在內,澳大利亞央行可能在12月前加息約2.5個百分點。

While many people have used the extended period of record-low interest rates to get ahead in their mortgage repayments, others could become increasingly stressed financially. The impact could be amplified if house prices fall in response to rising rates and people curb their spending because they feel less wealthy.

雖然許多人利用延長的創紀錄低利率來提前償還抵押貸款,但其他人可能會變得越來越有經濟壓力。如果房價因利率上升而下跌,而人們因為感覺不那麼富有而限制支出,那麼這種影響可能會放大。

The RBA last month sounded a warning that the housing market is looking more fragile, as more households have taken on high levels of debt relative to their incomes. Its modeling suggests a two-percentage-point rise in the benchmark interest rate would lead to house prices falling by 15%.

澳大利亞央行上個月發出警告稱,隨着越來越多的家庭揹負相對於收入水平較高的債務,房地產市場看起來更加脆弱。它的模型顯示,基準利率上調兩個百分點將導致房價下跌15%。

Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com and David Winning at david.winning@wsj.com

寫信給James Glynn:james.glynn@wsj.com和David Winning:david.winning@wsj.com

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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