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Shares of Amazon dropped 7% on Thursday morning

Shares of Amazon dropped 7% on Thursday morning

亞馬遜股價週四上午下跌7%
DowjonesNews MarketWatch ·  2022/02/03 10:13  · 異動

$Amazon(AMZN.US)$ said on its last earnings call that there was no Prime pricing announcement, but it's something the company thinks about Amazon.com may raise the price of a Prime membership in the near future to help offset some of the headwinds the e-commerce giant is facing, according to Jefferies analysts in an earnings preview note published Monday.

$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$傑富瑞(Jefferies)分析師在週一發佈的收益預覽報告中表示,亞馬遜在上一次財報電話會議上表示,沒有Prime定價聲明,但該公司認為,亞馬遜可能會在不久的將來提高Prime會員價格,以幫助抵消這家電商巨頭面臨的一些不利因素。

Shares of Amazon dropped 7% on Thursday morning. Amazon is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

亞馬遜股價週四上午下跌7%。亞馬遜定於週四收盤後公佈第四季度收益。

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Jefferies notes that Amazon raised the price of Prime membership in March 2014 and again in May 2018. Prime was launched in 2005.

傑富瑞指出,亞馬遜在2014年3月和2018年5月分別提高了Prime會員的價格。Prime於2005年推出。

"Increasing the fee again this year seems reasonable and would maintain the latest cadence of about four years," wrote analysts led by Brent Thill.

以Brent Thill為首的分析師寫道:“今年再次提高收費似乎是合理的,將保持大約四年的最新節奏。”

"Both prior increases have been for $20, so that's a reasonable conservative base-case assumption (from $119 to $139), although a new increase would likely be larger since Amazon is facing substantial wage inflation."

“之前的兩次漲價都是20美元,所以這是一個合理保守的基本假設(從119美元到139美元),儘管新的漲幅可能會更大,因為亞馬遜面臨着嚴重的工資上漲。”

In the interest of growing Prime adoption abroad, Jefferies says the increase would likely be just in the U.S. Jefferies estimates there are 140 million Prime subscribers in the U.S.

傑富瑞表示,考慮到越來越多的海外用户採用Prime,這一增長很可能只發生在美國。據Jefferies估計,美國有1.4億Prime訂户。

Amazon, like many retail and consumer companies, is being challenged by higher labor costs, supply chain disruption, and other hurdles. Still, Jefferies rates Amazon stock a buy with a $4,000 price target that is 34% above its current price.

與許多零售和消費公司一樣,亞馬遜也面臨着勞動力成本上升、供應鏈中斷和其他障礙的挑戰。儘管如此,傑富瑞(Jefferies)仍將亞馬遜股票評級為買入,目標價為4,000美元,較當前價格高出34%。

"We see Amazon as a 2H22 story, aided by easing comps, improved cost visibility, moderating capacity build-out, continued momentum at high-margin businesses (AWS/advertising), and 40% multiple compression since mid-2020," the note said.

報告稱:“我們將亞馬遜視為一個2小時22秒的故事,這得益於降低成本、提高成本可見性、減緩產能建設、高利潤率業務(AWS/廣告)的持續勢頭,以及自2020年年中以來40%的倍數壓縮。”

Amazon's Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said on the third-quarter earnings call in October that he had "nothing to discuss or announce around Prime price increases," according to a FactSet transcript. However, it is an option.

根據FactSet的文字記錄,亞馬遜首席財務官布萊恩·奧爾薩夫斯基(Brian Olsavsky)在10月份的第三季度財報電話會議上表示,他“沒有什麼要討論或宣佈的關於Prime價格上漲的事情”。然而,這是一種選擇。

"[W]e always look at that. We look at the value. It's generally a country-by-country discussion. We look at the value we've built. We look at the time since our last price increase. There's a lot of strategic factors involved obviously."

"[W]我們總是看着它。我們看的是它的價值。這通常是一個國家一個國家的討論。我們看看我們創造的價值。我們看看上次漲價以來的時間。很明顯,這牽涉到很多戰略因素。“

JPMorgan analysts also expect the Prime membership fee and fees for other Amazon services will rise.

摩根大通分析師還預計Prime會員費和亞馬遜其他服務的費用將會上漲。

"We also believe Amazon will take selective price increases as we have already seen through the recent 5% increase in FBA fulfillment fees (typically 2-3%), which should add an incremental $3 billion of third-party revenue in 2022," analysts wrote.

分析師寫道:“我們還相信亞馬遜將有選擇地提價,因為我們已經看到最近FBA提價5%(通常為2%-3%),這將在2022年增加30億美元的第三方收入。”

"Amazon likely delayed some price increases as the company managed through elevated pandemic-driven demand, & we believe a Prime price increase is likely in 2022."

“亞馬遜可能推遲了一些價格上漲,因為該公司設法應對了由流行病引發的高需求,我們認為Prime價格可能會在2022年上漲。”

JPMorgan rates Amazon stock overweight with a $4,350 price target.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)對亞馬遜股票的評級為增持,目標價為4350美元。

MKM Partners fee hike commentary echoes JPMorgan, with analysts expecting higher prices across Prime, Fulfillment by Amazon and other areas of the business.

MKM Partners上調費用的評論呼應了摩根大通(JPMorgan),分析師預計Prime、亞馬遜和其他業務領域的價格都會上漲。

MKM rates Amazon stock buy with a $4,000 price target.

MKM對亞馬遜股票購買的評級為4,000美元目標價。

Amazon has an average buy rating and average target price of $4,105.35, according to 52 analysts polled by FactSet.

根據FactSet調查的52位分析師,亞馬遜的平均買入評級和平均目標價為4,105.35美元。

Here's what else to know about Amazon heading into the earnings report:

以下是即將發佈的收益報告中關於亞馬遜的其他信息:

Earnings: The FactSet consensus is for earnings per share of $3.63, down from $14.09 last year.

收益:FactSet的共識是每股收益為3.63美元,低於去年的14.09美元。

Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts, hedge-fund managers, executives, academics and others, is forecasting EPS of $4.75.

Estimize從賣方和買方分析師、對衝基金經理、高管、學者和其他人那裏眾包估計,該公司預計每股收益為4.75美元。

Amazon missed the FactSet EPS consensus in the last quarter, but beat the consensus the five quarters before that.

亞馬遜在上個季度沒有達到FactSet每股收益共識,但在之前的五個季度超過了共識。

Revenue: The FactSet consensus is for revenue of $137.68 billion, up from $125.56 billion last year.

營收:FactSet的共識是營收為1376.8億美元,高於去年的1255.6億美元。

The Estimize outlook is for $138.74 billion.

Estimize的前景為1387.4億美元。

Amazon missed the FactSet revenue consensus the last two quarters.

亞馬遜在過去兩個季度未能實現FactSet營收共識。

Stock price: Amazon shares have tumbled 9.4% over the last three months, and are down 11.2% for the past year.

股價:亞馬遜股價在過去三個月裏下跌了9.4%,過去一年下跌了11.2%。

The S&P 500 index  is down 0.9% over the last three months, but has gained 20% over the last 12 months.

標準普爾500指數在過去三個月裏下跌了0.9%,但在過去12個月裏上漲了20%。

Other items:

其他項目:

--Analysts say labor inflation and supply chain disruptions will cut into results even as Prime membership continues to grow. "4Q results are expected to be negatively impacted by $2.0 billion in labor inflation, of which 50% is attributed to wages and 50% to incentives, and $2.0 billion in operational disruptions, mainly attributed to transportation costs," wrote Stifel analysts.

分析人士表示,儘管Prime會員人數繼續增長,但勞動力通脹和供應鏈中斷將影響業績。Stifel分析師寫道:“第四季度業績預計將受到20億美元勞動力通脹的負面影響,其中50%歸因於工資,50%歸因於激勵措施,以及20億美元的運營中斷,主要歸因於運輸成本,”Stifel分析師寫道。

-Amazon stock will benefit from gains in AWS and advertising business, Stifel says. Sales comparisons for the e-commerce arm of the business will be impacted by the Prime Day shopping event the year prior, according to analysts.

-Stifel表示,亞馬遜股票將受益於AWS和廣告業務的收益。分析師表示,該業務電子商務部門的銷售比較將受到去年黃金日購物活動的影響。

Stifel rates Amazon stock a buy with a $4,400 price target.

Stifel將亞馬遜股票評級為買入,目標價為4400美元。

JPMorgan gives Amazon credit for managing a "challenging operating environment" during the holiday season, but "Amazon becomes a cleaner story through 2022."

摩根大通稱讚亞馬遜在假期期間管理了一個“具有挑戰性的經營環境”,但“到2022年,亞馬遜將成為一個更乾淨的故事。”

MKM also sees market share gains ahead for Amazon's cloud and advertising businesses.

MKM還預計亞馬遜的雲和廣告業務未來的市場份額將會增加。

"While tougher comps through 1Q22 might weigh on Amazon's fundamental optics early on, we believe Amazon could break out of its current range in 2H22 as optics and fundamentals improve as the year progresses (accelerating top line and flattish op margins)," MKM wrote in a recent report.

MKM在最近的一份報告中寫道:“雖然22年第一季度的艱難競爭可能會在早期拖累亞馬遜的基本面業績,但我們相信,隨着業績和基本面隨着時間的推移而改善(營收加速,運營利潤率持平),亞馬遜可能會在2h22年內突破目前的業績區間,”MKM在最近的一份報告中寫道。

-One-day shipping should pick up even more steam. Amazon's faster one-day shipping isn't new, but rolling it out has taken time, writes Credit Suisse.

-一天的發貨應該會有更多的動力。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)寫道,亞馬遜更快的單日送貨速度並不是什麼新鮮事,但推出它需要時間。

"[W]ith the planned retention of the seasonal 4Q hiring into 2022, we believe we are one step closer to seeing greater proliferation of faster delivery after two years of capacity constraints," analysts said.

"[W]隨着計劃將季節性第四季度招聘保留到2022年,我們相信,在經歷了兩年的產能限制後,我們離看到更快交付的更大擴散又近了一步。

Credit Suisse rates Amazon stock at outperform with a $4,000 price target.

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)對亞馬遜股票的評級為強於大盤,目標價為4000美元。

-Tonya Garcia

--託尼·加西亞(Tonya Garcia)

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