Chinanews.com, Oct. 21-according to a comprehensive report, two well-known economists recently issued a joint paper warning: a key consumer index shows that the US economy is falling into recession, which may be as serious as the 2008 financial crisis.
According to reports, the consumer expectation index of the University of Michigan (UM) and the World Federation of large Enterprises (CB) can reflect the income forecast, employment situation and economic expectations of the American people in the future. In 2021, the UM index fell 18.4 points and the CB index fell 25.3 points; during the global financial crisis in 2008, the two indices fell 21 points and 19 points, respectively.
David Blanchflower, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College (Dartmouth College) and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social sciences at the University of London, pointed out that consumer confidence indices of CB and UM tend to predict recession in the United States 18 months in advance. The consumer confidence index of the CB and UM has fallen by more than 10 percentage points in every US recession since the 1980s, and this time it is a clear warning that the US will fall into recession by the end of 2021.
Blanche Frauer and Bryson said that the two indices can immediately reflect market conditions and help to understand the economic situation. They believe that US gross domestic product (GDP) lags behind by nearly a year, and unemployment figures are also inaccurate due to the impact of unpaid leave. The study pointed out that the Biden administration intervened in the labor market in a way never seen before, allowing the unemployment rate to recover quickly, but consumer expectations have fallen significantly over the past six months despite growth in employment and wages. Consumer confidence in the United States has basically collapsed, indicating that the United States is entering a recession, they said.
Blanche Frauer and Bryson said: "of course these indices may be inaccurate, but in 2007, economists and the government omitted these variables, resulting in a heavy price." We hope that we will not make the same mistake again this year, and we must look at these quantitative data trends carefully. "
Through the peak of COVID-19, the rapid expansion of the global economy and the large bail-out funds and higher wages of the US federal government mean that there will be huge consumer demand. However, enterprises are facing the problem of shortage of workers and materials, and it is still unknown when the supply chain crisis will be lifted.
The paper predicts that fears associated with the COVID-19 epidemic persist and continue to hamper economic growth, with people still afraid of contracting the virus on their way to and from work and in the workplace. They believe that the emergence of the Delta variant virus has exacerbated this concern.