Recently, Dongpeng Beverage disclosed the records of institutional research in September, and the names of many Yi Fangda fund / investment managers such as Zhang Kun, Fu Hao, Wang Yuanchun, Wuyang and Lin Gaobang appeared on the list of participants. In addition, star fund managers such as Fu Youxing and Wu Xingwu of Guangfa Fund also appeared.

In addition to Dongpeng drinks, since September, a number of consumer stocks have been organized by institutions to investigate. From September 1 to October 12, the CSI's main consumer index has rebounded 15.3% from its lows, of which Luzhou laojiao rose 32.44% and Shengnong Development rose 30.81%. In addition, there are new hope, food negotiations, quality stores, Fuling mustard and other consumer stocks rose more than 20%.

After the adjustment in the second or third quarter, is the consumer sector going to "the return of the king"? Is the recent consumer stock market short-term rebound or a complete reversal? From an institutional point of view, public funds generally believe that it is difficult to reproduce the overall trend of the consumer sector in the past few years, but there are many investment opportunities in alternative consumption, emerging consumption and other directions.

Zhang Kun led a number of fund managers to investigate Dongpeng drinks.

Recently, Dongpeng Beverage disclosed the records of institutional research in September, and the name of Zhang Kun, the number one public offering elder brother, appeared in the list of participants. Although the name of the company was not marked, it was followed by Fu Hao, Wang Yuanchun, Wuyang, Lin Gaopang and other Yi Fangda fund / investment managers. Zhang Kun is the most familiar Zhang Kun to investors.

In addition, Fu Youxing and Wu Xingwu, two star fund managers of the Guangfa Fund, also appeared on the survey list, with a total of about 46 participants, which were received by Liu Lihua, secretary of the board of directors, and several staff members of the board of directors office. Although it is an online communication, both Yi Fangda and Guangfa have sent big names, which shows that they attach great importance to it.

As a representative of functional drinks, Dongpeng drink said in the survey that the company's main target consumers are drivers, couriers, takeout workers, white-collar workers and so on. In order to reach these consumers, the company will have corresponding cost inputs: for example, advertising implantation in Gaode and DiDi Global Inc. drivers; corresponding expenses for drivers such as trucks and truck drivers; campus projects aimed at young people; advertising promotion in channels reached by young people such as Bilibili Inc. and Little Red Book; and advertising to reach the audience group of new products with special drinks by echelons and other advertising methods.

Dongpeng Beverage said that the gross profit margin increased in the first half of this year, on the one hand, the lock price of raw materials, last year the company has locked the price of PET materials this year. On the other hand, the scale effect of products, the Huapeng production base established in Guangdong Province now has four production lines to meet the needs of Guangdong Province at the same time, including the production capacity of Anhui production base has now reached the higher level since the establishment of the factory. As the new production base is put into production, our large-scale efficiency will gradually appear, and this scale will also lead to the improvement of gross profit margin.

There will not be much change in the second half of the year. The big difference in the first half of the year is mainly due to the additional promotion expenses of more than 6000 yuan for listing promotional films and an increase of about 97.1413 million yuan for channel promotion such as freezer launch and Shang Chao promotion over the same period last year. if the fees excluding these two pieces are actually basically the same as those in the same period, they will be the same in the second half of the year as in the same period last year.

Dongpeng Beverage was listed on May 27 this year, and its share price peaked at 283.56 yuan on July 7, but then entered a continuous pullback and did not stabilize until September. Dongpeng Beverage rebounded 16.75% from September 1 to October 12.

The fund has conducted intensive research on consumer stocks since September

In addition to Dongpeng drinks, since September, consumer stocks are gradually returning to the horizons of investors, institutions have begun intensive research on consumer stocks. Data show that easy, Shuai Feng Electrical Appliances, Zhou Dasheng, Weixing shares and other 13 consumer stocks have ushered in more than 50 institutional research.

For example, Pixuan has accepted six institutional surveys since September, with a total of 193 participating institutions, including ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, Yinhua Fund, Xingshi Investment and other fund companies. the main research content focuses on new product development, customer portraits, overseas market development and other issues.

Li Gao Food has ushered in the research of rich country fund Wang Yuanyuan, aware assets Yu Haifeng and other star fund managers; the cold chain leader ice wheel environment has also been investigated by a number of institutions, including the South Fund, Warburg Fund, Yongwin Fund, Shen Wanling Fund and other six fund companies. Ice wheel environment said in the survey, benefiting from the upgrading of food consumption and new infrastructure policies, the exuberant market situation of cold chain system continues.

In addition, some consumer stocks predicted good results in the third quarter. For example, Yiyatong, a logistics concept stock, predicted that the upper limit of year-on-year growth in net profit in the first three quarters of this year could reach 420%. Yiyatong has been investigated by a number of public offerings, such as Guangfa Fund, Beixin Ruifeng Fund, Guojin Fund, Chinese Merchant Fund, Jiahe Fund, Jiutai Fund and so on.

"double-section" data shows a moderate recovery in consumption

Before the "double section", the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for August, of which consumption data showed the largest decline, with retail sales of consumer goods ("Social Zero") totaling 3.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 percent over the same period last year, down 6 percentage points from July. The two-year average growth rate was 1.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from July.

However, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day undoubtedly stimulated residents' willingness to spend, and the data continued to pick up, especially in food and beverage, entertainment and other industries.

Among them, cinema chains, theme parks, catering and other typical intra-city consumption-related transactions increased significantly. According to data from the Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 13:00 on Oct. 7, the total real-time box office (including pre-sale) of the 2021 National Day file exceeded 4.1 billion yuan, surpassing 3.967 billion yuan in 2020. According to a report by Meituan and BABA, the consumption of superstores across the country increased by nearly 40 percent over the previous month, and the number of orders that bought food through Meituan's App group and went to restaurants increased by 49 percent compared with last year's National Day.

However, data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism show that tourism travel on the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is still relatively weak, which may be related to the local epidemic situation in China. Among them, the cumulative number of domestic trips on the Mid-Autumn Festival returned to 87.2% in 2019, while income returned to 78.6% in 2019, which was no significant improvement compared with this year's Dragon Boat Festival and Qingming Festival. During the National Day holiday, 515 million domestic tourists traveled nationwide, down 29.9% from the same period in 2019. Domestic tourism revenue reached 389.061 billion yuan, down 40.1% from the same period in 2019.

Overall, in the six days before the National Day holiday in 2021, UnionPay + Internet UnionPay online transactions totaled nearly 8.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction value of 1.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.9 percent and 61.5 percent respectively over the same period in 2020 and 2019.

More attention has been paid to alternative consumption, emerging consumption and other directions.

Is the recent consumer stock market short-term rebound or a complete reversal? Is the market sustainable? From an institutional point of view, public funds generally believe that it is difficult to reproduce the overall trend of the consumer sector in the past few years, but there are many investment opportunities in alternative consumption, emerging consumption and other directions.

For example, the China Europe Fund believes that after the adjustment in the second and third quarters, the overall valuations of consumer stocks except cars and the pharmaceutical industry as a whole have initially returned. It is recommended to pay attention to pharmaceutical segments and optional consumer leaders whose valuation performance-to-price ratio is near the historical average.

Xu Wenhui, a mixed fund manager on the consumption theme of Agricultural Bank of China, believes that October will enter the period of disclosure of results in three quarters, and the third and fourth quarters are the peak season for many consumer goods companies, and most of them have basically set the tone of their transcripts this year. Catering chain and travel chain struggle to survive in the epidemic repeatedly; under the background of wealth differentiation, diversification of channels, and diversification of marketing media in the post-epidemic era, optional consumption remains resilient, and the transfer of required consumption costs is still at the bottom. Low-penetration emerging consumer categories maintain prosperity but competition intensifies.

Therefore, in terms of investment direction, Xu Wenhui suggested that we should pay attention to the performance of the three quarterly reports and the trend in the coming year, and choose sub-industries with high economic continuity and probability of economic reversal, such as optional consumption such as spirits, jewelry, medical beauty, pets and other emerging consumptions. choose the direction of reasonable valuation and fundamental recovery of opportunity layout, such as the food and catering supply chain. In addition, pay attention to the potential high growth direction from other areas in festival consumption in the fourth quarter.

Boshi Fund believes that the consumption track, the recovery of consumption after the epidemic is divided into two stages, one is 20Q4 cars, home appliances and other optional consumption to achieve excess income, and the other is that 21Q2 high-end consumption is generally lower than expected. The difficulty of short-term recovery will affect the industry beta, but under the influence of new people, new aesthetics and new culture, the industry alpha still exists. It is suggested that the energy of consumption and investment will be spent on mining the income of alpha.