Original title: international crude oil is lower, NYMEX oil price is expected to fall to US $73.83, OPEC+ may further relax the "oil lock"
International oil prices fell on Friday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies may step up planned increases to ease supply concerns. NYMEX crude fell to $73.83.
Crude oil futures fell 0.76 per cent to $74.46 per barrel, while ICE Brent futures fell 0.65 per cent to $77.80 per barrel.
All eyes in the market are now focused on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and the Russian-led partner (OPEC+) next Monday. In addition to the existing agreement to increase production by 400000 b / d in November and December, oil-producing countries are expected to discuss other options.
Four OPEC+ sources said it was possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or month. Another OPEC+ source said it could increase by 800000 b / d in the coming month and not increase production in the following month.
It is not clear what caused the change in tone, but before that, OPEC+ federation technologyThe JTC held a meeting to assess the market outlook and predicted a surplus of 1.4 million b / d in the oil market next year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 1.6 million b / d.
Ahead of the online meeting of the OPEC+ on October 4th, negotiations between member states continued and there was no guarantee that they would agree to an additional increase in production. OPEC members Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates have said in recent weeks that the organization does not see the need to take special measures to change the existing agreement.
"given that oil prices are so high, they are likely to further increase production," said Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The last time we saw an oil price of $80, there was a lot more supply than we have now, and I think the international market may need some extra supply now, given the global energy crunch. "
Energy Aspects, a consultancy, expects OPEC+ to extend its decision to increase production by 400000 b / d a month between August and December. Virendra Chauhan, an analyst at the agency, said
Brent crude oil
It needs to stay above $80 to get OPEC+ to make such a change.
"the OPEC+ meeting to be held next Monday will be crucial to the direction of oil prices next week," ANZ Research analysts said in a report. If production increases by more than 400000 b / d, it will ease the upward pressure on oil prices in the short term. "
White House Press Secretary Pusaki said the Biden administration expressed concern about high oil prices, which was discussed when National Security adviser Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Salman earlier this week.
As global natural gas prices soar, power producers are turning to fuel oil or diesel to generate electricity, pushing up oil prices. Power plants in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Middle East have begun to change fuel.
"this suggests that we should continue to witness strong oil demand in the coming months, which means that oil supply and demand will be tighter than expected before the end of the year," ING commodities analysts said in a report.
On the daily chart, US Oil is in an upward ((3)) wave starting from 61.74 US dollars, and the recent resistance above looks toward the 23.6% target of 78.37 US dollars. On the hour chart, oil prices are in the downward (c) wave that began at US $76.07, and the market is expected to fall below the 61.8% target of US $74.26 and the 76.4% target of US $73.83. (C) waves are the sub-waves of downlink ((iv)) and ((iv)) upstream waves started at $76.67 and $67.58 respectively.
