Original title: the international gold price is difficult to rise, and the US dollar urgently needs to be pointed out by the Federal Reserve.
On Friday (September 3), international gold prices rose, but the US index is expected to stop its decline, which limits the upside of gold prices. Investors are waiting for US non-farm payrolls data to judge the Fed's plan to start scaling back its asset purchases.
16:03 Beijing time, spot gold rose 0.13% to $1812.13 / oz; COMEX gold futures contract rose 0.14% to $1814.1 / oz; and the dollar index rose 0.2% to 92.196.
The dollar index hit an intraday low of 92.151 since Aug. 5, or fell for the second straight week.
Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said: "We are seeing people who are likely to bet on non-farm payrolls data to position in advance on a small scale. If the data is weak, it could be quite good for gold prices, as it will reinforce Powell's more cautious view of the outlook for the US economy. If the data are strong, we may see gold fall below the $1800 mark. "
The U.S. Labor Department will release its August non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. Previous data showed that initial jobless claims in the US fell last week and layoffs fell to a 24-year low in August.
Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said last week that policymakers may start to cut back on asset purchases this year if jobs continue to grow, but will remain cautious in deciding to raise interest rates. Although gold is seen as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, low interest rates also reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yield asset.
The direction of the dollar is unclear as financial markets wait for the Fed to provide a clearer path, according to the survey. While analysts expect the dollar to give up most of its gains in the coming year, they are divided over expectations for the dollar over the next three months.
JPMorgan Chase & Co"when we look at the dollar, we see two important forces," said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at asset management. The first is the global recovery and the momentum we have seen recently, and the second is obviously the reaction of central banks to this, because these two forces are currently competing with each other, so our views on the direction of the dollar are relatively neutral. "
Morgan StanleyDavid Adams, head of FX Strategy for North America, said: "in the end, we think this is likely to be good for the dollar as real yields continue to rise in the coming months. We continue to be bullish on the dollar, especially against the low-yielding yen and euro. "
Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank in London, said: "when risk appetite prevails, the dollar tends to weaken and money flows into emerging markets, and what we have seen recently is that the Delta variant is really shaking up Asian markets, while talk of curtailing stimulus amplifies the level of uncertainty. It is the combination of these two factors that makes the money flow back to the dollar. In order for the dollar to weaken again, we have to have a lot of money flowing into emerging markets, and I don't think that's going to happen right away. "