Despite AK Medical Holdings Limited's (HKG:1789) recent earnings report having lackluster headline numbers, the market responded positively. Sometimes, shareholders are willing to ignore soft numbers with the hope that they will improve, but our analysis suggests this is unlikely for AK Medical Holdings.
A Closer Look At AK Medical Holdings' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to December 2023, AK Medical Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.24. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥162m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥182.1m. We saw that FCF was CN¥121m a year ago though, so AK Medical Holdings has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On AK Medical Holdings' Profit Performance
AK Medical Holdings' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that AK Medical Holdings' true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing AK Medical Holdings at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for AK Medical Holdings you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of AK Medical Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.