It's been a pretty great week for Glaukos Corporation (NYSE:GKOS) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$108 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$86m beat expectations by a respectable 7.5%, although statutory losses per share increased. Glaukos lost US$0.82, which was 27% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Glaukos' 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$362.7m in 2024. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$2.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$356.7m and losses of US$2.33 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 5.5% to 106.64615, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Glaukos, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$125 and the most bearish at US$100.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Glaukos is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Glaukos' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Glaukos to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Glaukos. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Glaukos going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Glaukos that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.