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Seven Things You Need to Know About the Australian Property Market

Seven Things You Need to Know About the Australian Property Market

關於澳大利亞房地產市場,你需要知道的七件事
sharecafe ·  04/09 01:23

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP, discusses the property market.

AMP投資策略主管兼首席經濟學家謝恩·奧利弗博士討論了房地產市場。

Key points

關鍵點

  • The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be.
  • Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it's very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates still matter; but it's been chronically undersupplied for years; forecasting home prices is very hard; and housing has similar long-term investment returns to shares.
  • The surge in immigration is estimated to push the housing shortfall to around 200,000 dwellings this financial year.
  • Price gains are expected to be around 5% this year with high rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices. The risks are finely balanced.
  • 澳大利亞的房地產市場仍然比樂觀主義者和末日主義者所描繪的要複雜得多。
  • 澳大利亞的住房價格昂貴且負債累累;但它非常多樣化;抵押貸款拖欠額仍然很低;利率仍然很重要;但多年來長期供應不足;很難預測房價;住房具有與股票相似的長期投資回報。
  • 據估計,移民的激增將使本財政年度的住房短缺增加到約20萬套住房。
  • 預計今年價格將上漲約5%,高利率拖累,但供應短缺支撐了價格。風險是微妙平衡的。

Introduction

導言

The Australian housing market has started the year on a solid note with national home prices up 1.6% over the first three months according to CoreLogic. We had thought the drag of high mortgage rates would get the upper hand again but the supply shortfall is continuing to dominate.

根據CoreLogic的數據,澳大利亞房地產市場今年年初表現良好,全國房價在前三個月上漲了1.6%。我們曾以爲高抵押貸款利率的拖累將再次佔上風,但供應短缺仍然占主導地位。

Source: CoreLogic, AMP

資料來源:CoreLogic、AMP

Extreme property views

極致的房產景觀

While most economists sit in the middle, there are basically two extreme views amongst "property experts". Some real estate spruikers still wheel out the old "property will double every seven years" line. But property doomsters say it's hugely overvalued and overindebted and so a crash is inevitable. The trouble with the former is that it implies the already high ratio of home prices to incomes will double over the next 12 years! The trouble with the doomsters is that they've been saying that for decades. The reality is that it's far more complicated than the extremes portray it. Here's seven stylised "facts" regarding Australian property.

雖然大多數經濟學家處於中間位置,但 “房地產專家” 基本上有兩種極端觀點。一些房地產狂熱者仍在推行舊的 “房地產每七年翻一番” 的路線。但是房地產界人士說,它的估值被嚴重高估了,負債過高,因此暴跌是不可避免的。前者的問題在於,這意味着本已很高的房價收入比率將在未來12年內翻一番!末日之徒的麻煩在於,他們已經這樣說了幾十年。現實情況是,它比極端情況所描繪的要複雜得多。以下是有關澳大利亞房地產的七個風格化的 “事實”。

First – it's very expensive

首先,它非常昂貴

This has been the case since the early 2000s but it's been getting worse:

自2000年代初以來,情況一直如此,但情況越來越糟:

  • House price to income ratios have doubled since the year 2000.
  • 自2000年以來,房價收入比率翻了一番。

Source: ABS, CoreLogic, AMP

來源:ABS、CoreLogic、AMP

  • The years taken to save a 20% deposit for an average full time wage earner have doubled from 5 years 30 years ago to 10 years now.
  • A measure of house price valuation based on the ratio of home prices to rents (a bit like a PE for shares) adjusted for inflation shows house prices around 36% above their long-term average price to rent ratio.
  • It's also expensive in global comparisons, eg, the 2023 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey shows the median multiple of house prices to income at 8.2 times versus around 5 in the US and UK.
  • 從30年前的5年到現在的10年,平均全職工資收入者存入20%的存款所需的年限翻了一番。
  • 根據經通貨膨脹調整的房價與租金的比率(有點像股票的私募股權)來衡量房價估值的指標顯示,房價比長期平均租金比率高出約36%。
  • 在全球比較中,它也很昂貴,例如,2023年Demographia住房負擔能力調查顯示,房價與收入的倍數中位數爲8.2倍,而美國和英國的平均倍數約爲5倍。

The expensive nature of Australian property and the high level of household debt that goes with it leaves the economy vulnerable should high interest rates or unemployment make it harder to service loans and is leading to rising wealth (and intergenerational) inequality.

如果高利率或失業率使貸款更難償還並導致財富(和代際)不平等加劇,那麼澳大利亞房地產的昂貴性質以及隨之而來的高額家庭債務會使經濟變得脆弱。

Second – it's also very diverse

其次-它也非常多樣化

While it's common to refer to "the Australian property market", in reality there is significant divergence between localities. This has been been seen recently with rapid relative price growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. See the first chart for Perth. This divergence partly reflects a combination of better housing affordability (with prices in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth playing catchup after lagging pre-pandemic) and relative population growth (with Brisbane and Perth benefitting from interstate migration).

儘管提到 “澳大利亞房地產市場” 很常見,但實際上,不同地區之間存在巨大差異。最近,阿德萊德、布里斯班和珀斯的價格相對快速上漲就體現了這一點。參見珀斯的第一張圖表。這種差異在一定程度上反映了住房負擔能力的改善(阿德萊德、布里斯班和珀斯的房價在疫情前滯後後之後迎頭趕上)和相對人口增長(布里斯班和珀斯受益於州際移民)的結合。

The divergence is reflected in measures of valuation. For example, the next table shows the percentage difference between price to annual rent ratios adjusted for inflation relative to their average since 1983. On this basis while houses are 36% overvalued, units are only 9% over valued. And Perth stands out as the least overvalued market in terms of houses and is actually undervalued (by 12%) in terms of units.

這種差異反映在估值衡量標準中。例如,下表顯示了經通貨膨脹調整後的價格與年租金比率相對於1983年以來平均水平的百分比差異。在此基礎上,雖然房屋被高估了36%,但單位的估值僅高出9%。就房屋而言,珀斯是最不被高估的市場,實際上,按單位計算,珀斯的估值被低估了(12%)。

Third – mortgage arrears remain low (for now at least)

第三 — 抵押貸款拖欠額仍然很低(至少目前是這樣)

Headlines of excessive mortgage stress have been common for over a decade now. There is no denying housing affordability is poor, household debt is high and some households are suffering significant mortgage stress with the two or three fold increase in mortgage rates. But despite this mortgage arrears rates remain remarkably low as indicated in this chart from the RBA's Financial Stability Review published last month.

十多年來,抵押貸款壓力過大的頭條新聞已經司空見慣。不可否認的是,住房負擔能力差,家庭債務居高不下,抵押貸款利率增長了兩到三倍,一些家庭承受着巨大的抵押貸款壓力。但是,儘管如此,正如澳大利亞央行上個月發佈的《金融穩定報告》中的這張圖表所示,抵押貸款拖欠利率仍然非常低。

Source: RBA Financial Stability Review, March 2024

來源:澳大利亞央行金融穩定報告,2024年3月

The low level of arrears partly reflects strong lending standards in Australia combined with the strong jobs market and a high level of savings buffers coming out of the pandemic. That said, arrears are starting to pick up and the risks will rise as buffers run down, scope to cut discretionary spending is exhausted and if the labour market deteriorates significantly.

較低的欠款水平在一定程度上反映了澳大利亞強勁的貸款標準,以及強勁的就業市場和疫情帶來的高水平儲蓄緩衝。儘管如此,拖欠款項已開始增加,隨着緩衝區的減少,削減全權支出的空間已用盡以及勞動力市場嚴重惡化,風險將上升。

Fourth – interest rates still matter

第四 — 利率仍然很重要

The long sweep of history shows interest rates matter a lot to the property market. The downtrend in mortgage rates since the late 1980s underpinned the surge in property prices over the same period as it enabled buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. And rate hikes have been associated with cyclical price falls (black arrows in the next chart) with rate cuts usually needed for upswings (see the purple ovals).

漫長的歷史表明,利率對房地產市場非常重要。自1980年代末以來,抵押貸款利率的下降趨勢支撐了同期房地產價格的飆升,因爲它使買家能夠借到更多相對於收入的貸款。加息與週期性價格下跌有關(下圖中的黑色箭頭),而上漲通常需要降息(見紫色橢圓形)。

Source: CoreLogic, RBA, AMP

資料來源:CoreLogic、澳大利亞央行、AMP

But of course, the impact of interest rates can be swamped by other factors at times, as has been the case over the last year.

但是,當然,利率的影響有時會被其他因素所淹沒,就像去年一樣。

Fifth – it's chronically undersupplied

第五 — 它長期供不應求

This has been the case since the mid-2000s when immigration levels, and hence population growth, surged and the supply of new homes did not keep up. The pandemic's freeze on immigration provided a brief relief but this was offset by a fall in the number of people per household and the problem has worsened with reopening leading to record immigration levels (of 548,800 people over the year to September resulting in population growth of nearly 660,000). This has pushed underlying housing demand to around 250,000 dwellings pa at a time when home completions are around 170,000 dwellings a year. So, the shortfall of homes is getting worse (and likely to reach 200,000 dwellings by June) and this explains the surprising strength in home prices over the last year.

自2000年代中期以來,情況一直如此,當時移民人數激增,從而導致人口增長,新房的供應跟不上。疫情對移民的凍結提供了短暫的緩解,但這被每戶家庭人數的下降所抵消,而且隨着重新開放導致移民人數創歷史新高(截至9月的一年中,移民人數爲548,800人,導致人口增長近66萬人),問題進一步惡化。這已將潛在住房需求推高至每年約25萬套住房,而房屋竣工量約爲每年17萬套住房。因此,房屋短缺越來越嚴重(到6月可能達到20萬套住房),這解釋了去年房價出人意料地強勁的原因。

The next chart assumes some slowing in immigration levels, but data up to January suggests it remains around record levels. Given home building capacity constraints and the desire to reduce the existing housing shortfall, immigration levels really need to be cut back to around 200,000 a year.

下圖假設移民人數有所放緩,但截至1月份的數據表明移民人數仍在創紀錄的水平附近。鑑於房屋建築能力的限制以及減少現有住房短缺的願望,確實需要將移民人數減少到每年20萬左右。

Source: ABS, AMP

資料來源:ABS、AMP

Sixth – forecasting swings in home prices is hard

第六 — 預測房價的波動很難

Failed property crash calls have been a dime a dozen over the last two decades and forecasting property swings has been hard. For example, RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted last month that "I wouldn't like to predict housing prices...every time we tried...we seem to get it wrong..." So be humble and sceptical when it comes to house prices forecasts.

在過去的二十年中,失敗的房地產崩潰電話一直很普遍,預測房地產波動一直很困難。例如,澳洲聯儲行長米歇爾·布洛克上個月指出:“我不想預測房價... 每次嘗試... 我們似乎都弄錯了...”因此,在房價預測方面要保持謙虛和懷疑。

Finally – it has similar long term returns to shares

最後,它具有相似的長期股票回報率

This can be seen in the next chart which shows the value of $100 invested in 1926 in Australian cash, bonds, shares and residential property with interest, dividends and rent (after costs) reinvested along the way. Over the period both shares and property return around 11% pa. Property's low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for it in investors' portfolios.

這可以在下一張圖表中看出,該圖表顯示了1926年投資於澳大利亞現金、債券、股票和住宅物業的100美元的價值,在此過程中利息、股息和租金(扣除成本後)進行了再投資。在此期間,股票和房地產的年回報率均約爲11%。房地產與股票的低相關性,較低的波動性但較低的流動性使其成爲良好的投資組合分散工具。因此,它在投資者的投資組合中顯然可以發揮作用。

Source: ASX, ABS, REIA, AMP

資料來源:澳大利亞證券交易所、澳大利亞證券交易所、澳大利亞證券交易所、澳大利亞證券交易所

Where to now?

現在去哪裏?

As we noted earlier forecasting property prices is fraught. Particularly now with the opposing forces of a major chronic supply shortfall and high mortgage rates. Our base case is now for 5% or so home price growth this year, down from 8% last year, as still high interest rates constrain demand and along with higher unemployment lead to some increase in distressed listings. However, the supply shortfall should provide support and rate cuts are expected to boost price growth later this year. Delays to rate cuts and a sharp rise in unemployment would signal downside risks whereas the supply shortfall points to upside risk. The key for savvy investors, given the pressure from high interest rates relative to still low rental yields making most property investments cash flow negative, is to look for properties offering decent rental yields.

正如我們之前指出的那樣,房地產價格的預測令人擔憂。尤其是在目前存在嚴重的長期供應短缺和高抵押貸款利率的對立勢力的情況下。我們目前的基本理由是今年房價增長5%左右,低於去年的8%,這是因爲高利率仍然限制了需求,加上失業率的上升導致不良房源有所增加。但是,供應短缺應提供支撐,預計降息將提振今年晚些時候的價格增長。延遲降息和失業率急劇上升將預示着下行風險,而供應短缺則表明上行風險。鑑於高利率帶來的壓力,相對於仍然較低的租金收益率使大多數房地產投資的現金流爲負數,精明的投資者來說,關鍵是尋找租金收益率不錯的房產。

Ends

結束

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, neither National Mutual Funds Management Ltd (ABN 32 006 787 720, AFSL 234652) (NMFM), AMP Limited ABN 49 079 354 519 nor any other member of the AMP Group (AMP) makes any representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor's objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor's objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided. This document is not intended for distribution or use in any jurisdiction where it would be contrary to applicable laws, regulations or directives and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, solicitation or invitation to invest.

重要提示:儘管在編寫本文件時已採取一切謹慎措施,但國家共同基金管理有限公司(ABN 32 006 787 720,AFSL 234652)(NMFM)、AMP Limited ABN 49 079 354 519和AMP集團(AMP)的任何其他成員均未對其中任何聲明(包括但不限於任何預測)的準確性或完整性作出任何陳述或保證。過去的表現不是未來表現的可靠指標。編寫本文件的目的是提供一般信息,沒有考慮到任何特定投資者的目標、財務狀況或需求。在做出任何投資決定之前,投資者應考慮本文件中信息的適當性,並根據投資者的目標、財務狀況和需求尋求專業建議。本文件僅供向其提供的一方使用。本文件不用於在違反適用法律、法規或指令的任何司法管轄區分發或使用,也不構成建議、要約、招標或投資邀請。

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