Larry Summers Says There's Still a 'Real Possibility' of a Fed Move Higher: 'Would Be an Inappropriate Act to Cut Rates' at June Meeting
Larry Summers Says There's Still a 'Real Possibility' of a Fed Move Higher: 'Would Be an Inappropriate Act to Cut Rates' at June Meeting
The stock market largely took a stronger-than-expected March job report in stride, but an economist warned on Friday that the data could dampen hopes of rate cuts.
3月份的就業報告基本上強於預期，但一位經濟學家週五警告說，該數據可能會抑制降息的希望。
Neutral Rates: The U.S. payrolls gain in March suggests the economy is re-accelerating, said former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers in a Bloomberg interview last week. Considering other factors such as the "epic" loosening in financial conditions, "it seems to me the evidence is overwhelming that the neutral rate is far higher than the Fed supposes," he said.
中性利率：前財政部長勞倫斯·薩默斯上週在彭博社採訪中表示，美國3月份的就業人數增長表明經濟正在重新加速。他說，考慮到其他因素，例如金融狀況 “史詩般的” 放鬆，“在我看來，有大量證據表明，中性利率遠高於聯儲局的預期。”
A neutral monetary policy rate is one which is neither stimulatory nor restrictive to growth.
中性貨幣政策利率既不刺激也不限制增長。
The median estimate for the neutral policy rate issued by Fed officials following the March meeting was 2.6%, while Summers estimated it be at 4% or higher. The Fed funds rate is currently at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. Summers, a professor at Harvard University, suggested that the current policy rate has only a slight element of restriction.
聯儲局官員在3月會議後發佈的中性政策利率的中位數估計爲2.6％，而薩默斯估計爲4％或更高。聯邦基金利率目前處於22年來的最高水平，爲5.25％-5.50％。哈佛大學教授薩默斯認爲，目前的政策利率只有一點限制因素。
The economist also took exception to not having a neutral rate target.
這位經濟學家還對沒有設定中性利率目標表示異議。
Saying 'we don't need to know what the neutral rate is' is like saying you should drive your car on feel, without looking at the speedometer ... It is just a mistake," he said.
說 “我們不需要知道中性速率是多少” 就像說你應該在不看車速表的情況下憑感覺開車...這只是一個錯誤，” 他說。
The Bloomberg report noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Stanford University event recently that the question of what the neutral rate will be going forward doesn't matter for policy today.
彭博社的報道指出，聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近在斯坦福大學的一次活動中表示，未來中性利率的問題對今天的政策並不重要。
Summers, however, said, "There's no way to judge what policy is without knowing what would be a neutral policy."
但是，薩默斯說：“如果不知道什麼是中立的政策，就無法判斷政策是什麼。”
Rate Outlook: Delving into the monetary policy trajectory, Summers said, "I don't want to make a prescription for monetary policy in June, but on current facts and current trends, I think it would be an inappropriate act to cut rates" at that meeting.
利率展望：薩默斯在深入研究貨幣政策軌跡時說：“我不想在6月開出貨幣政策的處方，但根據目前的事實和當前的趨勢，我認爲在那次會議上降息是不恰當的行爲”。
My best guess is that the right thing to do is going to be to stick where we are for considerably longer than the Fed dot-plot supposes," the economist said, adding that while it's "certainly more likely than not that the next move will be down and should be down" in rates, there's still "a real possibility that it should be up."
我最好的猜測是，正確的做法是保持現狀的時間比聯儲局的點陣圖所設想的時間長得多。” 他補充說，儘管下一步利率下調的可能性肯定更大，而且應該降低”，但是 “確實有可能提高利率”。
The probability of a rate cut, going by the CME FedWatch tool, is 4.8% at the May meeting, 53.2% at the June meeting, 72.5% at the July meeting.
根據芝加哥商品交易所聯邦觀察工具，降息的可能性在5月份的會議上爲4.8％，在6月的會議上爲53.2％，在7月的會議上爲72.5％。
The financial markets have priced in about three cuts this year, with some bullish analysts even flagging more than three, premising their expectation on inflation resuming its downtrend.
金融市場對今年約三次降息進行了定價，一些看漲的分析師甚至宣佈了三次以上的降幅，前提是他們預計通貨膨脹將恢復下降趨勢。
The $iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP.US)$, an ETF tracking the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, ended Friday's session unchanged at $106.68, according to Benzinga Pro data.
這個 $通脹債券指數ETF-iShares (TIP.US)$Benzinga Pro的數據顯示，追蹤由受通脹保護的美國國債組成的指數的投資業績的ETF，週五收盤維持在106.68美元。