RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Treiber reiterated the Sector Perform rating on BlackBerry Limited (NYSE:BB) with a price forecast of $3.

BlackBerry will report the fourth-quarter results on April 3 after market close.

Treiber foresees BlackBerry to report fourth quarter revenue down 12% quarter over quarter, in line with guidance.

In light of cost reductions, BlackBerry may guide to breakeven FY25 adjusted EPS, above consensus, the analyst writes.

However, the FY25 revenue guidance may fall short of expectations, given ongoing headwinds in its Cybersecurity segment and delayed EV transitions and next-gen vehicle rollouts weighing on IoT growth, Treiber notes.

The analyst forecasts -$15 million adjusted EBITDA (consensus at -$13 million). Treiber sees $(0.04) adjusted EPS.

However, an upside could be possible on lower opex following the recent restructuring.

The analyst forecasts IoT revenue to be up 16% quarter on quarter to a quarterly record $64 million in the fourth quarter.

However, the analyst sees cybersecurity revenue down 25% quarter on quarter to $85 million in the fourth quarter (down 3% year over year), given the sustained challenges shown by soft KPIs last quarter.

In addition to reduced EV production at domestic automakers, Chinese EV manufacturers have also reduced EV production.

While BlackBerry has nominal revenue from China, the cuts are another sign of the near-term headwinds facing the development of EVs and next-generation vehicle platforms, the analyst flags.

Price Action: BB shares are trading higher by 1.41% to $2.790 on the last check Thursday.