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Is Changzhou Almaden (SZSE:002623) A Risky Investment?

Is Changzhou Almaden (SZSE:002623) A Risky Investment?

常州奧瑪登(深圳證券交易所:002623)是風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  02/26 00:37

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002623) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。我們可以看到,常州亞瑪登股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所:002623)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東們可能會一無所獲。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Changzhou Almaden's Debt?

常州阿爾瑪登的債務是什麼?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Changzhou Almaden had CN¥912.6m of debt, up from CN¥548.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.67b in cash, leading to a CN¥752.5m net cash position.

如下所示,截至2023年9月底,常州奧瑪登的債務爲9.126億元人民幣,高於去年同期的5.484億元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但另一方面,它也有16.7億元的現金,淨現金狀況爲7.525億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002623 Debt to Equity History February 26th 2024
SZSE: 002623 2024 年 2 月 26 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Changzhou Almaden's Liabilities

看看常州阿爾瑪登的負債

According to the last reported balance sheet, Changzhou Almaden had liabilities of CN¥1.71b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥533.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.67b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.46b due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥882.3m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,常州阿爾瑪登的負債爲17.1億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲5.334億元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有16.7億元人民幣的現金以及價值14.6億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有8.823億元人民幣 更多 流動資產超過總負債。

This excess liquidity suggests that Changzhou Almaden is taking a careful approach to debt. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Succinctly put, Changzhou Almaden boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種過剩的流動性表明常州奧瑪登對債務採取了謹慎的態度。由於它擁有充足的資產,因此不太可能與貸款人發生麻煩。簡而言之,常州阿爾瑪登擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

Even more impressive was the fact that Changzhou Almaden grew its EBIT by 106% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Changzhou Almaden's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

更令人印象深刻的是,常州亞瑪登的息稅前利潤在十二個月內增長了106%。這種提振將使未來償還債務變得更加容易。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益比什麼都重要,將決定常州亞瑪登未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Changzhou Almaden has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Changzhou Almaden burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。儘管常州奧瑪登的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去的三年中,常州奧瑪登燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Changzhou Almaden has CN¥752.5m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And we liked the look of last year's 106% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Changzhou Almaden's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Changzhou Almaden you should know about.

儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在這種情況下,常州阿爾瑪登擁有7.525億元人民幣的淨現金和不錯的資產負債表。我們喜歡去年息稅前利潤同比增長106%的樣子。那麼常州奧瑪登的債務有風險嗎?在我們看來,情況並非如此。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了一個你應該知道的常州亞瑪登警告標誌。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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