The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that perovskite batteries have a wider range of application scenarios than crystalline silicon, and can be used in many fields such as photovoltaic building integration, vehicle roof photovoltaics, mobile devices, networked sensors, and photovoltaic power plants. In terms of conversion efficiency, the maximum theoretical conversion efficiency of single-junction perovskite batteries is 33%, which is close to the theoretical conversion efficiency limit of 33.7% for single-junction batteries. The conversion efficiency of laminated batteries composed of multi-junction batteries will be further improved. Considering the rapid development of the perovskite industry and the broad market space, it is recommended to focus on companies related to the industry chain, such as Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), GCL Technology (03800), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), and Mannst (301325.SZ).

The views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:

Perovskite is a third-generation solar cell with broad development prospects.

Perovskite batteries are named because their photoelectric conversion layer uses a perovskite structure. It refers to a type of material with the general chemical formula ABX3, which is lightweight, flexible, and has high low light properties. Perovskite batteries have a wider range of application scenarios than crystalline silicon, and can be used in many fields such as photovoltaic building integration, vehicle roof photovoltaics, mobile devices, networked sensors, and photovoltaic power plants. In terms of conversion efficiency, the maximum theoretical conversion efficiency of single-junction perovskite batteries is 33%, which is close to the theoretical conversion efficiency limit of 33.7% for single-junction batteries. The conversion efficiency of laminated batteries composed of multi-junction batteries will be further improved. In recent years, perovskite has developed rapidly, and conversion efficiency has jumped rapidly. According to NREL, the single-junction perovskite battery efficiency record reached 26.1%, and the sales record for crystalline silicon-perovskite laminated batteries reached 33.9%.

The perovskite preparation process has not yet been standardized; coating and coating are the core equipment.

There are four main types of equipment involved in the perovskite production process, including coating equipment, coating equipment, laser equipment, and packaging equipment. Among them, coating equipment accounts for the highest value, and laser equipment has the strongest process certainty. Take a single-junction perovskite battery with a trans structure as an example. The main processes for the perovskite layer, hole transport layer, electron transport layer, and electric grade layer are slit coating, magnetron sputtering (PVD), reactive plasma plating (RPD), and magnetron sputtering (PVD), respectively. The preparation process of perovskite batteries usually requires four laser procedures. The main function is etching and edge cleaning. The damage defects and flatness of the laser process directly affect the battery life and conversion efficiency, so the accuracy requirements are high. Judging from current industrial practice, there are differences in the preparation process of each enterprise. Usually, there is a trade-off between quality and economy, and the final plan has not yet been standardized.

Perovskite batteries have outstanding potential for industrialization, and large-scale preparation and stability still need breakthroughs.

1) Industrialization advantages. Compared with crystalline silicon, the manufacturing chain is significantly shortened, and production efficiency is significantly improved. It only takes about 45 minutes to produce perovskite from raw materials to finished components, while crystalline silicon components take about three days from silicon to finished products. On the other hand, the preparation conditions for perovskite are mild, and the process temperature does not exceed 150℃, which can effectively reduce production energy consumption.

2) Industrialization difficulties. Perovskite materials have long-term stability problems. Currently, their lifespan is relatively short. The theoretical service life is about 5-15 years, which is significantly lower than 25 years for crystalline silicon components. On the other hand, there is a loss in efficiency in preparing large area perovskite batteries, and the manufacturing process is difficult.

3) Cost and efficiency are expected to continue to break through. According to Electro-Solar Energy, the manufacturing cost of perovskite components in 100 megawatt production lines is about 1.5-1.6 yuan/W, which is still high compared to crystalline silicon modules. Perovskite is in the early stages of industrialization. Later, costs can be further reduced through technological progress and scale-up. It is estimated that the cost may drop to about 0.9 yuan/W at the GW scale; it is expected that it may drop further at the 10GW scale.

The gradual penetration of perovskite technology is expected to drive rapid growth in the equipment and perovskite component market.

1) Equipment market space. Assuming that the penetration rate of perovskite gradually increases from 0.2% to 15.5% in 2024-2030, and the investment in perovskite equipment drops to about 500 million yuan/GW after large-scale mass production, we expect the new global market space for perovskite equipment will reach 83.06 billion yuan by 2030, and the CAGR is about 80% in 2024-2030.

2) Market space for perovskite components. We expect the global perovskite module market space to reach 181.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of about 108% from 2024-2030. Perovskite lamination may be the ideal path. Currently, companies mainly use 100 megawatt pilot lines. The development path of perovskite batteries is expected to transition from a single-layer structure to four-terminal lamination, and stacking at both ends may become an ideal technology route for the future. Among them, perovskite/HJT laminates have the advantages of low process temperature, compatibility of the process route with crystal silicon, high conversion efficiency, or a better solution for the future.

Currently, various enterprises are mainly 100 megawatt pilot lines. Domestic pilot lines for 100 megawatt perovskite components, such as GCL Optoelectronics, Senna Optoelectronics, and Joden Solar, have been completed and put into operation. Many companies, such as Zhongneng Optoelectronics and Guangjing Energy, have begun construction of 100 megawatt pilot lines. In addition, a number of GW-class production lines are being planned and advanced. It is expected that GCL Optoelectronics and Electro-Solar's GW production lines will be put into operation one after another in 2024.

Risk warning: Terminal demand falls short of expectations, production capacity expansion falls short of expectations, perovskite penetration falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, related estimates are somewhat subjective, etc.