The Zhitong Finance app learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that on December 17, NIO CEO Li Bin livestreamed the range of the 150 kWh ultra-long battery pack. The results show that the NIO ET7 consumes about 13 kWh of energy for the full 1044km 100 kilometers, and still has 3% remaining electricity. The remaining CLTC mileage is expected to be 30km+. In addition to the NIO ET7, 2024 will usher in a wave and a half of solid-state battery loading and verification. It is recommended that close attention be paid to the actual usage results of the application side, or it may continue to catalyze the upward trend in the lithium battery sector.

Solid-state battery technology innovation covers all aspects of the industry, and the bank suggests following the layout of the entire industry chain. 1) The traditional system of positive and negative electrode materials is still applicable. Established leaders can continue to maintain their advantages through cooperation with battery companies. It is recommended to focus on Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ), Encyclopedia Technology (688005.SH), Betray (835185.BJ), Puterai (603659.SH), etc.; 2) Electrolytes are the core key of solid-state batteries. New variables in difficult fields are large, and enterprises with stronger R&D capabilities have greater potential. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on polyfluoride (002407.SZ) and Star Source 5 materials (30000) 68. SZ), Shanghai Xiba (603200.SH), Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ), etc.; 3) The capital strength of the battery sector is sufficient, and leading companies with deep R&D technology accumulation are expected to establish a leading edge. It is recommended to focus on Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) (non-ferrous group coverage), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ), Ningde Era (300750.SZ), etc.

The views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Incident: On December 17, NIO CEO Li Bin livestreamed the range of the 150kWh ultra-long battery pack. The results show that the NIO ET7 consumes about 13 kWh of energy for the full 1044km 100 kilometers, and still has 3% remaining electricity. The remaining CLTC mileage is expected to be 30km+.

Semi-solid-state batteries are expected to cause a reduction in dimensions. The 150 kWh battery pack tested this time is currently the largest battery pack in the domestic passenger car sector. The product was first released on NIO Day 2021. It uses a semi-solid battery solution. The battery cell energy density is as high as 360 kWh/kg, and the battery pack density is 260 Wh/kg (Ningde Kirin battery density 255 Wh/kg); it can still achieve a range of thousands of kilometers during the cold tide, which is enough to prove that the energy density and low temperature performance of semi-solid state batteries are ahead of mainstream liquid lithium-ion batteries. In addition to this, the safety of semi-solid state batteries will also be improved across the board. The product is expected to be mass-produced in April next year and is suitable for all NIO models, which will significantly enhance the competitiveness of car companies.

Semi-solid state batteries are the preferred transition option. All-solid-state batteries are the ideal next-generation lithium battery technology, but the current technology still faces two major bottlenecks: 1) Solid-state electrolytes with comprehensive performance standards have not been found; 2) Solid-solid contact interface problems have not been solved well. Moreover, all-solid-state batteries have had a huge impact on the industrial chain pattern (the diaphragm link has completely disappeared, and the electrolyte chain will also face major changes), so semi-solid-state batteries that are compatible with current materials and industrial systems have become the preferred solution. We expect to see large-scale commercialization of all-solid-state power batteries in 2030, while semi-solid-state batteries are expected to be mass-produced and installed in the power market in 2024.

There are many layout players. According to the Electric Vehicle 100 People's Forum, NIO's 150kWh battery pack supplier may be Weilan New Energy. It is backed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and is a leading semi-solid battery startup in China. Similar companies include Qingtao Energy. There are also traditional established battery companies with a similar layout in the field of solid-state batteries in China, such as Ningde Times, which released condensed batteries on April 19; upstream companies, such as Ganfeng Lithium, which released semi-solid “Vanguard” batteries on September 5.

Loading verification accelerated. In addition to the NIO ET7, 2024 will usher in a wave and a half of solid-state battery loading verification, such as Cyrus (Ganfeng Lithium) and SAIC Motor Zhiji (Qingtao Energy). It is recommended that close attention be paid to the actual usage results on the application side, or it may continue to catalyze the upward trend in the lithium battery sector.

Investment advice

Solid-state battery technology innovation covers all aspects of the industry, so it is recommended to follow the entire industry chain for layout. 1) The traditional system of positive and negative electrode materials is still applicable. Established leaders can continue to maintain their advantages through cooperation with battery companies. It is recommended to focus on Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ), Encyclopedia Technology (688005.SH), Betray (835185.BJ), Puterai (603659.SH), etc.; 2) Electrolytes are the core key of solid-state batteries. New variables in difficult fields are large, and enterprises with stronger R&D capabilities have greater potential. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on polyfluoride (002407.SZ) and Star Source 5 materials (30000) 68. SZ), Shanghai Xiba (603200.SH), Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ), etc.; 3) The capital strength of the battery sector is sufficient, and leading companies with deep R&D technology accumulation are expected to establish a leading edge. It is recommended to focus on Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) (non-ferrous group coverage), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ), Ningde Era (300750.SZ), etc.

Risk warning

The risk that solid-state battery technology breakthroughs and industrialization progress falls short of expectations; the risk that marketing falls short of expectations; the risk that mainstream liquid lithium-ion battery technology and other alternative battery technologies are developing rapidly, and the performance exceeds that of solid-state batteries.