The China Oral Industry Group Holdings Limited (HKG:8406) share price has softened a substantial 30% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 58% share price decline.
Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking China Oral Industry Group Holdings is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Leisure industry have P/S ratios below 0.4x. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
See our latest analysis for China Oral Industry Group Holdings
How China Oral Industry Group Holdings Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at China Oral Industry Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China Oral Industry Group Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For China Oral Industry Group Holdings?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, China Oral Industry Group Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 44%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 35% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 4.3% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that China Oral Industry Group Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On China Oral Industry Group Holdings' P/S
China Oral Industry Group Holdings' P/S remain high even after its stock plunged. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of China Oral Industry Group Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for China Oral Industry Group Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.