During the Asian session on Monday (August 7), U.S. crude oil surges were blocked. Earlier, they reached a new high of 83.27 US dollars/barrel since April 14, approaching the resistance around the nearly nine-month high of 83.51 set on April 12. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and Russia previously promised to extend production cuts for another month to further tighten the global market and support oil prices. Moreover, Saudi Arabia raised the price of crude oil sold to the US and Asia over the weekend, which also suggests strong demand. However, the oil price has now fallen back to around 82.64 US dollars/barrel, ending with some gains from some bulls near the strong resistance level.
Saudi Arabia extended its plan to voluntarily cut production by 1 million b/d until the end of September on Thursday, adding that the production reduction plan may be extended or deepened. Saudi production will be around 9 million b/d in September.
Russia said on Thursday that oil exports will drop by 300,000 b/d in September. Additionally, a Russian warship was seriously damaged during a Ukrainian Navy drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk Black Sea naval base last week. The port, which handles 2% of the world's oil supply, has resumed operations.
Additionally, weekly data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes shows that in the last week, the number of active oil rigs in the US dropped again, falling by 4 to 525, the lowest level since March 2022. This suggests that US supply may be further reduced, and it also provides support for oil prices.
However, since there is strong resistance around the high of 83.51 on April 12, and the recent benefits on both the supply and demand sides have basically been digested by the market, it is necessary to watch out for the bulls to settle further profits, and furthermore, due to the possibility of a short-term correction in oil prices.
Daily level:Unilateral rise; the MACD fork and KDJ are passivating at a high level. Before falling to the 5-day EMA of 71.76, oil prices still have a chance to rise further, focusing on the resistance around the April high of 83.51. If it can break this resistance, it is expected to open up new upward space. Further resistance refers to the position around the November 10 high of 84.70, and the November 16 high resistance is around 87.48.
However, the resistance around 83.51 is strong, and the MACD also initially sent a top divergence signal. We need to watch out for the risk of oil price shocks reaching a peak or the possibility of fluctuation adjustments. The lower 5-day EMA support is around 81.76, followed by the 10-day EMA around 80.92. The 80 integer mark is also a source of psychological support. If it fails to hold on to this support, it increases the possibility of reaching a peak in the short term; last week's low support is around 78.68. Strong support refers to around 78.19 after the 21-day EMA. If it fails to hold on to this empty support, then increase the bearish market support signal.
Resistance:83.51; 84.70; 85.83; 87.48;
Support:81.76; 80.92; 80.00; 78.68;
Short-term operation recommendations:Be careful and short when it's high; be careful when it's short when it's low.