On November 26-27, the annual meeting and 10th anniversary of the China Chief Economist Forum was held in Shanghai. Liao Qun, chief economist of the Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, attended and participated in the round-table discussion.
Talking about how to view the US economy, a few groups said that the US economy is certain to decline and is still deteriorating, but whether it will decline or not is not certain. He expects the US economy to grow by more than 2 per cent this year. He pointed out that the direct trigger of the US economic downturn this time is that interest rates have been raised too sharply, and the Federal Reserve needs to prevent both inflation and recession, so it will be prudent in raising interest rates and monetary policy to prevent a recession next year. "once the US economy is really going to recession, it is estimated that interest rate hikes will stop."
When will the Fed stop raising interest rates? Few groups think that the increase to around 5% will stop, and now it may be added two or three times, each time 0.5 or 0.25, and should peak by the second quarter of next year. Few groups pointed out that it is impossible for the United States to achieve an inflation rate of less than 2% and an economic growth rate of more than 2% next year.
When it comes to the trend of the dollar, few people believe that the strength of the dollar will continue for some time, and so on, the dollar index will move back, and it is expected that the dollar index will be below 105 by the end of next year.