Most people feel a little frustrated if a stock they own goes down in price. But in the short term the market is a voting machine, and the share price movements may not reflect the underlying business performance. The MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (NYSE:MSM) is down 12% over a year, but the total shareholder return is -8.5% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 23% over the last year. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 0.8% in three years. It's down 12% in about a month. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 11% in the same time.
After losing 5.9% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for MSC Industrial Direct
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the MSC Industrial Direct share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 49%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
We don't see any weakness in the MSC Industrial Direct's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NYSE:MSM Earnings and Revenue Growth September 27th 2022
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling MSC Industrial Direct stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for MSC Industrial Direct the TSR over the last 1 year was -8.5%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that MSC Industrial Direct returned a loss of 8.5% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 23%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 5% for each year. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand MSC Industrial Direct better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for MSC Industrial Direct you should know about.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
如果他們擁有的股票價格下跌,大多數人都會感到有點沮喪。但在短期內,市場是一臺投票機,股價走勢可能不能反映潛在的業務表現。這個MSC工業直銷公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:MSM)一年來下跌了12%,但如果計入股息,總股東回報率為-8.5%。這比去年下跌23%的市場要好。較長期股東的損失沒有那麼嚴重,因為該股在三年內下跌了0.8%,跌幅相對較小。在大約一個月的時間裏,它下跌了12%。但這可能與糟糕的市場狀況有關--股市在同一時期下跌了11%。
在過去一週下跌5.9%後,有必要調查一下該公司的基本面,看看我們可以從過去的表現中推斷出什麼。
查看我們對MSC Industrial Direct的最新分析
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
不幸的是,在MSC Industrial Direct股價下跌的12個月裏,它的每股收益(EPS)實際上提高了49%。過去的增長預期很有可能是不合理的。
公平地説,股價似乎並沒有反映出每股收益的增長。但我們可能會發現一些不同的衡量標準可以更好地解釋股價走勢。
我們沒有看到MSC Industrial Direct的股息有任何疲軟,所以穩定的股息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。從我們看到的情況來看,營收相當持平,所以這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。當然,這可能只是因為它根本沒有達到市場的普遍預期。
該公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。
紐約證券交易所:MSM收益和收入增長2022年9月27日
很高興看到,在過去的三個月裏,出現了一些重大的內幕收購。這是一個積極的消息。另一方面,我們認為收入和收益趨勢是衡量業務的更有意義的指標。如果您正在考慮購買或出售MSC Industrial Direct股票,您應該查看以下內容免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。我們注意到MSC Industrial Direct過去一年的TSR為-8.5%,好於上述股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
儘管MSC Industrial Direct在過去12個月中回報了8.5%的虧損,這令人痛苦,但更廣泛的市場實際上更糟糕,回報虧損23%。當然,長期回報要重要得多,好消息是,在過去的五年裏,該股的年回報率為5%。可能該業務只是面臨一些短期問題,但股東應密切關注基本面。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但為了更好地理解MSC Industrial Direct,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,考慮一下風險。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現2個MSC工業直達警示標誌你應該知道。
還有很多其他公司讓內部人士買進股票。你很可能會這麼做不想懷念這一切嗎?免費內部人士正在收購的成長型公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。