Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Midea Real Estate Holding Limited (HKG:3990) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Midea Real Estate Holding
What Is Midea Real Estate Holding's Debt?
As you can see below, Midea Real Estate Holding had CN¥53.1b of debt at June 2022, down from CN¥57.1b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥33.4b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥19.7b.
SEHK:3990 Debt to Equity History September 9th 2022
How Healthy Is Midea Real Estate Holding's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Midea Real Estate Holding had liabilities of CN¥195.2b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥40.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥33.4b and CN¥34.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥168.1b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥11.2b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Midea Real Estate Holding would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Midea Real Estate Holding has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Sadly, Midea Real Estate Holding's EBIT actually dropped 8.9% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Midea Real Estate Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Midea Real Estate Holding created free cash flow amounting to 9.0% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
Mulling over Midea Real Estate Holding's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Midea Real Estate Holding's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Midea Real Estate Holding .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
傳奇基金經理理想汽車·盧曾説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到美的置業控股有限公司(HKG:3990)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但這筆債務對股東來説是一個擔憂嗎?
債務在什麼時候是危險的?
債務是幫助企業發展的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼它就只能聽從貸款人的擺佈。資本主義的一部分是“創造性破壞”的過程,破產的企業被銀行家無情地清算。然而,更常見(但代價仍然高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,只是為了支撐其資產負債表。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。當我們考慮一家公司的債務用途時,我們首先會把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對美的房地產控股的最新分析
美的房地產控股的債務是什麼?
如下所示,截至2022年6月,美的房地產控股的債務為人民幣531億元,低於一年前的人民幣571億元。另一方面,它擁有334億加元的現金,導致淨債務約197億加元。
聯交所:3990債轉股歷史2022年9月9日
美的房地產控股的資產負債表有多健康?
從最近的資產負債表可以看出,美的置業有1952億元的負債在一年內到期,406億元的負債在一年內到期。另一方面,一年內有334億加元現金和342億加元應收賬款到期。因此,其負債比現金和(近期)應收賬款之和高出1681億加元。
這一不足給這家112億元的CN公司本身帶來了沉重的負擔,就像一個孩子在一個裝滿書籍、運動裝備和小號的巨大揹包的重壓下掙扎一樣。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。畢竟,如果美的房地產控股今天不得不償還債權人的債務,它很可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
美的房地產控股的債務與EBITDA之比為2.6,這意味着大量債務,但對於大多數類型的業務來説,這仍然是相當合理的。然而,其1k的利息覆蓋率非常高,這表明債務的利息支出目前相當低。遺憾的是,美的房地產控股去年的息税前利潤實際上下降了8.9%。如果盈利趨勢繼續下去,那麼它的債務負擔將變得沉重,就像北極熊看着自己唯一的幼崽的心臟一樣。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定美的房地產控股能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤只是不能削減這一點。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去的三年裏,美的房地產控股創造了相當於息税前利潤9.0%的自由現金流,這是一個平淡無奇的表現。這種疲軟的現金轉換水平削弱了它管理和償還債務的能力。
我們的觀點
考慮到美的房地產控股試圖保持對總負債的控制,我們肯定不熱情。但從好的方面來看,它的利息覆蓋是一個好兆頭,讓我們更加樂觀。總體而言,在我們看來,美的房地產控股的資產負債表確實對該業務構成了相當大的風險。因此,我們對這種動物的警惕幾乎就像飢餓的小貓害怕掉進主人的魚塘一樣:正如他們所説的那樣,一次被咬,加倍害羞。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。為此,您應該意識到3個警示標誌我們發現了美的房地產控股公司。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。