The market is in a once-in-a-decade position for profits
The market is in a once-in-a-decade position for profits
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示
The market insanity is likely to continue this week as traders deal with uncertainty around inflation, but there is reason to believe we could see a bullish pivot by Wednesday. To understand why you need to know about the largest traders in the market and what they are doing.
本週，隨着交易員應對圍繞通脹的不確定性，市場瘋狂可能會持續下去，但有理由相信，我們可能會在週三之前看到看漲的轉向。為了理解為什麼你需要了解市場上最大的交易商以及他們在做什麼。
About half the trading every day in the market is done by the managers behind exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are like the mutual funds people hold in their 401(k) or IRA accounts.
市場上每天大約有一半的交易是由交易所交易基金(ETF)背後的經理完成的。這些就像人們在401(K)或IRA賬户中持有的共同基金。
Every time demand for an ETF's shares outstrips the supply of those shares, the ETF managers will make new shares ("creation") and buy the underlying stocks that they need to back those shares.
每當ETF的股票供不應求時，ETF管理人就會發行新的股票(“創造”)，併購買支持這些股票所需的標的股票。
Conversely, if investors are dumping ETF shares, the fund will absorb them ("redemption") to keep the shares even with the price of the underlying assets that the fund owns.
相反，如果投資者拋售ETF股票，該基金將吸收這些股票(“贖回”)，以保留這些股票，即使基金擁有的標的資產的價格也是如此。
It hasn't always been like this; just a few years ago, the proportion of daily trading done by ETFs was in the single percentages. The change comes with some important risks, but it can also provide some insights we wouldn't have otherwise.
情況並不總是這樣；就在幾年前，ETF每天完成的交易比例還只有1%。這一變化伴隨着一些重要的風險，但它也可以提供一些我們在其他方面沒有的見解。
After last week's extraordinary whipsaw, we need all the information and insights we can get.
在經歷了上週非同尋常的動盪之後，我們需要我們能獲得的所有信息和見解。
A Changing Mindset
不斷變化的心態
The market spiked 3% last Wednesday, only to be followed by a -3.5% decline on Thursday. On Friday, for the fifth week in a row, the market closed down. Although it hasn't dropped as far, this is the longest losing streak since the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.
上週三，股市飆升了3%，但隨後在週四下跌了3.5%。上週五，股市連續第五週收盤下跌。儘管跌幅沒有那麼大，但這是自2020年新冠肺炎危機以來最長的一次下跌。
Despite the decline, the ETF data is telling us something very interesting. Investors are dumping safe-haven ETFs and funds that hold bonds that protect against inflation. The top funds being purchased (created) are junk bond funds, S&P 500 stock funds, and mortgage-backed securities funds – all of these are very high risk.
儘管有所下降，但ETF的數據告訴我們一些非常有趣的事情。投資者正在拋售避險ETF和持有防範通脹的債券的基金。購買(創建)的頂級基金是垃圾債券基金、標準普爾500指數股票基金和抵押貸款支持證券基金--所有這些都是非常高的風險。
What all that means is that, despite high volatility, buyers were more interested in risky assets than safer stocks and bonds.
所有這一切意味着，儘管波動性很高，與更安全的股票和債券相比，買家對風險資產更感興趣.
As you know, we are among the analysts who still see this as a buying opportunity rather than a signal to get out of the market, and the ETF data says that the crowd with our point of view is growing.
正如你所知道的，我們是仍然將此視為買入機會而不是退出市場的信號的分析師之一，ETF數據顯示，與我們觀點相同的人羣正在增長。
What's Coming Up and What to Do
接下來會發生什麼以及要做什麼
The catalyst for the big bullish spike last week was that the Fed softened their stance about short-term rate hikes. Yes, rates are going to still go up, but the Fed has convinced investors that they won't rise as quickly as feared.
上週大幅上漲的催化劑是，美聯儲軟化了他們對短期加息的立場。是的，利率仍將上升，但美聯儲已經讓投資者相信，利率不會像人們擔心的那樣迅速上升。
If the outlook for rate hikes has shifted in a more moderate direction, then this week could unleash the dip-buyers in a big way.
如果加息的前景已經轉向更為温和的方向，那麼本週可能會讓降息買家大獲全勝。
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Those numbers have been astronomical lately, and the smart money is betting that this month's report will be a lot lower.
週三，美國勞工統計局(BLS)將公佈消費者物價指數(CPI)。這些數字最近一直是天文數字，聰明的投資者押注本月的報告將會低得多。
In fact, professional economists are expecting CPI to drop from more than 15% (inflation annualized) to 2%. It won't stay that low, but a drop like that should reset investor sentiment in a much more bullish direction. The next day, on Thursday, another inflation measure from manufacturers will come out, but the CPI will likely overshadow it.
事實上，專業經濟學家預計CPI將從15%以上(摺合成年率的通脹率)降至2%。金價不會一直保持在那麼低的水平，但這樣的下跌應該會讓投資者的情緒重新轉向更加看漲的方向。第二天，也就是週四，製造商的另一項通脹指標將出爐，但CPI很可能會給它蒙上陰影。
When we sent our update last week, we recommended taking advantage of the lows by jumping into quality consumer defensive stocks like $Constellation Brands(STZ.US)$ and $Target(TGT.US)$. Those stocks jumped by 3.5% and 4.9% respectively on Wednesday, May 4. Yes, they gave up their gains when the whole market dropped on Thursday, but we see this as evidence that investors are ready to buy in a big way.
當我們上週發佈最新消息時，我們建議利用低點，跳入優質消費防禦性股票，如$星座品牌(STZ.US)$和$Target(TGT.US)$。5月4日，週三，這兩隻股票分別上漲了3.5%和4.9%。是的，當週四整個市場下跌時，它們回吐了漲幅，但我們認為這證明投資者準備大舉買入。
The Bottom Line
底線
Stocks went for a wild ride last week that extended the market's losing streak by a small percentage. Counterintuitively, the biggest money flows shifted direction towards risky assets.
上週股市大漲，將股市的連跌幅度擴大了一小部分。與直覺相反的是，最大的資金流向轉向了高風險資產。
Combined with an expected temporary drop in the inflation rate this coming Wednesday, we think the market is in a once-in-a-decade position for dip-buyers to profit.
再加上預計本週三通貨膨脹率將暫時下降，我們認為，市場正處於十年一遇的低價買家獲利的境地。.
The post The Market Is in a Once-In-a-Decade Position for Profits appeared first on InvestorPlace.
最早出現在InvestorPlace上的帖子是市場處於十年一遇的盈利狀態。