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7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally

7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally

為即將到來的風險反彈買入的7只股票
InvestorPlace ·  2022/03/08 07:20

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the terms risk-on and risk-off into play as investors try to figure out the best stocks to buy in such a volatile market.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭帶來了冒險避險當投資者試圖在如此動盪的市場中找出最適合買入的股票時,這些股票正在發揮作用。

A war of such magnitude is a headwind for stocks. As such, they're currently considered risk-on assets. In times like these, investors look for risk-off assets such as gold, U.S. dollars, dollar-denominated bonds, and even Bitcoin (BTC-USD).

如此規模的戰爭對股市來説是一股逆風。因此,它們目前被認為是風險資產。在這樣的時期,投資者尋找避險資產,如黃金、美元、以美元計價的債券,甚至比特幣(比特幣-美元)。

The reality is that, try as we may, there is no such thing as a risk-off or risk-on asset. There are only assets, good and bad, depending on what an investor is trying to accomplish.

現實情況是,不管我們怎麼努力,都不存在避險或冒險資產這回事。資產只有好的和壞的,這取決於投資者試圖實現的目標。

For example, if you are risk-averse, in times like these, U.S. Treasury bills are an excellent example of an asset that is risk-off. However, if you're trying to grow your assets, T-bills are very much a risk-on play due to the ravages of inflation.

例如,如果你厭惡風險,在這樣的時期,美國國庫券是規避風險的資產的一個很好的例子。然而,如果你試圖增加你的資產,由於通貨膨脹的破壞,國庫券是一個非常冒險的遊戲。

InvestorPlace readers tend to be individuals looking to grow their assets. The challenge at the moment is figuring out when stocks are risk-on and risk-off.

InvestorPlace讀者往往是希望增加資產的個人。目前的挑戰是找出股票何時冒險和何時避險。

I would argue that if your investment horizon is 10 years or longer, stocks are risk-off assets despite the current state of affairs. That said, the price you pay for a stock matters.

我認為,如果你的投資期限是10年或更長時間,股票就是避險資產,儘管目前的情況如此。也就是説,你為一隻股票支付的價格很重要。

The Shiller PE Ratio is currently 35.4x, which except for December 1999, is higher than it's ever been. U.S. stocks are the third-most-expensive out of 43 global markets. Only Ireland and Denmark are more so.

希勒市盈率目前為35.4倍,除1999年12月外,這一比率比以往任何時候都要高。美國股市在全球43個市場中排名第三。只有愛爾蘭和丹麥更是如此。

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When the war comes to an end, however it ends, and the world gets back to normal, there will likely be a risk-on rally. Here are seven stocks to buy for when it happens:

當戰爭結束時,無論它如何結束,當世界恢復正常時,很可能會出現一場冒險反彈。以下是發生這種情況時可以買入的七隻股票:

  • Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B)
  • Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA)
  • Stellantis (NYSE:STLA)
  • LVMH (OTCMKTS:LVMUY)
  • Equinor (NYSE:EQNR)
  • Fresenius SE (OTCMKTS:FSNUY)
  • CK Hutchison Holdings (OTCMKTS:CKHUY)
  • 伯克希爾哈撒韋紐約證券交易所代碼:BRK.B)
  • 派拉蒙全球(納斯達克:段落)
  • 史泰蘭提斯紐約證券交易所代碼:STLA)
  • 路易威登(OTCMKTS:LVMUY)
  • Equinor紐約證券交易所代碼:EQNR)
  • 費森尤斯SE(OTCMKTS:FSNUY)
  • 長和控股(OTCMKTS:CKHUY)

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

風險拉昇股票買入:伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
消息來源:喬納森·韋斯(Jonathan Weiss)/Shutterstock.com

I'm sure you're wondering why I would include a defensive stock such as Berkshire Hathaway in a list of stocks to buy for a risk-on rally. It's simple; Warren Buffett's holding company generates a ton of free cash flow (FCF). In addition, if the risk-on rally doesn't last, BRK.B remains a fortress against the unknown.

我相信你一定在想,為什麼我會把伯克希爾哈撒韋這樣的防禦性股票列入冒險反彈買入的股票名單中。這很簡單;沃倫·巴菲特的控股公司產生了大量的自由現金流(FCF)。此外,如果冒險反彈不會持續,BRK.B仍然是抵禦未知的堡壘。

The past year was one of Berkshire's best years in recent memory, up 29.6%, 90 basis points higher than the S&P 500 index. It was the best return since 2013. The stock is a good mix of offense — it received $785 million in dividends in 2021 from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) along with 34% capital appreciation — and defense — the float from its insurance business has grown from $19 milli0n in 1967 to $147 billion in 2021.

過去的一年是伯克希爾哈撒韋公司近年來表現最好的一年之一,上漲了29.6%,比去年同期高出90個基點。標準普爾500指數。這是自2013年以來最好的回報。該股是一個很好的進攻組合-它在2021年獲得了7.85億美元的股息,蘋果納斯達克:AAPL)伴隨着34%的資本增值和防禦,其保險業務的流通股從1967年的1900萬美元增長到2021年的1470億美元。

Here's what Buffett had to say about its insurance business in the 2021 shareholder letter:

以下是巴菲特在2021年的股東信中對其保險業務的評論:

"I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire's float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums," Buffett stated.

巴菲特表示:“我相信,伯克希爾很可能--但還遠不能保證--能夠在不招致長期承銷虧損的情況下維持流通股。然而,我確信,我們將在未來幾年經歷這樣的虧損,可能涉及非常大的金額,”巴菲特表示。

"Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer — and that priority will remain long after Charlie (Munger) and I are gone."

“伯克希爾的宗旨是處理災難性事件,與其他保險公司不同--在查理(芒格)和我離開後,這一優先事項仍將存在很長一段時間。”

I've always said that the actual value of Berkshire will only be determined once every last asset is auctioned off to the highest bidder over a lengthy — decades, not years — divestiture process.

我一直説,伯克希爾的實際價值只會在漫長的(幾十年,而不是幾年)的資產剝離過程中被拍賣給出價最高的人之後才能確定。

Berkshire is a must-own in my opinion, while he's alive and long after he's gone.

在我看來,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司是一個必須擁有的公司,儘管他還活着,而且在他去世很久之後。

Paramount Global (PARA)

派拉蒙環球公司(第1段)

Source: Jer123 / Shutterstock.com
來源:Jer123/Shutterstock.com

The company, formerly known as ViacomCBS, became Paramount Global in mid-February. The company's announcement of the name change was very corporate in its communication.

該公司前身為維亞康姆哥倫比亞廣播公司2月中旬成為派拉蒙全球公司。該公司宣佈更名的消息在溝通上很有條理。

However, it's easy to see why it went with Paramount Global.

然而,很容易理解為什麼它會與派拉蒙全球公司合作。

First, it's trying to grow its Paramount+ streaming service, a business that's expected to deliver significant growth for shareholders.

首先,它正在努力發展其派拉蒙+流媒體服務,這項業務預計將為股東帶來顯著增長。

In Q4 2021, Paramount+ hit 32.8 million subscribers, putting it ahead of several of its competitors, including Discovery's (NASDAQ:DISCA) Discovery+ at 20 million. The company's streaming revenue in 2021 from subscriptions and advertising grew 64% year-over-year to $4.2 billion. It now accounts for 14.7% of its overall revenue, 460 basis points higher than 2020.

2021年第四季度,派拉蒙+的訂户達到3280萬,領先於幾個競爭對手,包括發現號的(納斯達克:DISCA)發現+2000萬。該公司2021年來自訂閲和廣告的流媒體收入同比增長64%,達到42億美元。目前佔其整體營收的14.7%,比2020年高出460個基點。

"We see a huge global opportunity in streaming, a much larger potential market than can be captured by linear TV and film alone," stated CEO Bob Bakish in its press release.

首席執行官鮑勃·巴克什在新聞稿中説:“我們在流媒體領域看到了巨大的全球機遇,這是一個比僅靠線性電視和電影所能佔領的更大的潛在市場。”

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Secondly, and equally important, it puts the company's dreadful past in the rearview mirror. The mere mention of Viacom and CBS brings forth memories of a long-dysfunctional marriage. The name Paramount reaches back to an iconic past while looking forward to the future. It was a no-brainer.

其次,同樣重要的是,它讓公司可怕的過去成為了後視鏡。只要提到維亞康姆和哥倫比亞廣播公司,就會讓人回想起一段長期功能失調的婚姻。派拉蒙這個名字可以追溯到標誌性的過去,同時展望未來。這是不假思索的。

As for PARA stock, it's rather cheap at the moment. It trades at 0.9x sales, and its enterprise value of $35.3 billion is just 5.4x earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), about half its five-year average.

至於Paral股票,目前相當便宜。該公司的銷售額為0.9倍,其353億美元的企業價值僅為息税折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的5.4倍,約為五年平均水平的一半。

Paramount Global is growth at a reasonable price.

派拉蒙全球正在以合理的價格增長。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Stellantis (STLA)

風險反彈股票買入:Stellantis(STLA)

Source: Antonello Marangi / Shutterstock.com
消息來源:Antonello Marangi/Shutterstock.com

I was tempted to recommend Exor (OTCMKTS:EXXRF), the Agnelli family's holding company. It owns 14.4% of Stellantis along with investments in a bunch of businesses, including Christian Louboutin, known for its red sole women's shoes.

我很想推薦Exor(OTCMKTS:EXXRF),阿涅利家族的控股公司。它擁有Stellantis 14.4%的股份,並投資了一系列業務,包括克里斯蒂安·魯布托以其紅色鞋底女鞋而聞名。

Stellantis outlined its nine-year strategic plan, Dare Forward 2030, on 4. If you're a Jeep fan, as I am, you ought to be excited about what it had to say about the brand's future.

Stellantis概述了其九年戰略計劃,勇往直前2030如果你是吉普的粉絲,就像我一樣,你應該對它所説的關於該品牌未來的東西感到興奮。

First, the company plans to double revenue to $335 billion by 2030 across all 14 of its brands. It also plans to maintain its North American margin of 16.3%, 610 and 790 basis points higher than General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F), respectively, despite the higher cost to make electric vehicles (EVs).

首先,該公司計劃到2030年將其所有14個品牌的收入翻一番,達到3350億美元。該公司還計劃將北美利潤率維持在16.3%、610和790個基點,分別高於通用汽車(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:GM)和福特紐約證券交易所代碼:F),儘管製造電動汽車(EVS)的成本較高。

To get the job done electrifying the company's EV fleet, it will spend $36 billion over nine years. CEO Carlos Tavares believes money's not the problem; it's executing at a high level.

為了完成為該公司的電動汽車車隊通電的工作,該公司將在9年內花費360億美元。首席執行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯認為錢不是問題,它的執行力很高。

Stellantis' goal is to sell 5 million EVs annually by 2030, with Europe all-electric and North America 50% of the way to electrification. Jeep plans a small SUV for the first half of 2023 with a Wrangler-like SUV and family SUV to follow in 2024.

Stellantis的目標是到2030年每年銷售500萬輛電動汽車,其中歐洲全電動汽車和北美電動汽車的電氣化比例達到50%。吉普計劃在2023年上半年推出一款小型SUV,2024年將推出一款類似牧馬人的SUV和家用SUV。

It might be the underdog in the eyes of many investors. I'm a contrarian. I see a strong road ahead for the company and its stock.

它可能是許多投資者眼中的失敗者。我是個反向投資者。我認為該公司及其股票的前景一片光明。

LVMH (LVMUY)

路易威登(LVMH)

Source: Postmodern Studio / Shutterstock.com
來源:後現代工作室/Shutterstock.com

Rumors surfaced in February that LVMH was in talks to buy Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL). The iconic brand's $8.7 billion enterprise value would be an appetizer for a company as large as the luxury conglomerate — LVMH's enterprise value is 40x Ralph Lauren's — whose corporate name includes three of its major brands: Louis Vuitton, Moet & Chandon and Hennessy.

2月份有傳言稱,路威酩軒集團(LVMH)正在洽談收購拉爾夫·勞倫(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:RL)。對於這家奢侈品集團這樣大的公司來説,這個標誌性品牌87億美元的企業價值將是開胃菜。LVMH的企業價值是拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)的40倍。LVMH的企業名稱包括其三大品牌:路易威登(Louis Vuitton)、酩悦軒尼詩(Moet&Chandon)和軒尼詩(Hennessy)。

Axios first broke the story, suggesting that LVMH wants the Polo brand because it would give it a much larger U.S. footprint. In 2021, the U.S.accounted for 26% of its overall sales. Asia remains LVMH's largest market at 35%.

阿西奧斯首先爆出了這個故事,暗示LVMH想要Polo品牌,因為它會讓它在美國留下更大的足跡。2021年,美國佔其總銷售額的26%。亞洲仍然是LVMH最大的市場,佔35%。

The Axios report makes some excellent points about why the deal has merit.

這個阿西奧斯報告對這筆交易為什麼有價值提出了一些很好的觀點。

Ralph Lauren is 82 years old. He won't be around forever. Given the business is turning a corner, it would be an ideal time to sell off the company that he built from the ground up. In addition, LVMH knows how to turn brands into luxury powerhouses. Ralph Lauren could easily be transformed into a luxury brand with higher price points.

拉爾夫·勞倫現年82歲。他不會永遠在你身邊。鑑於這家公司正在扭虧為盈,現在是出售他白手起家創建的公司的理想時機。此外,LVMH還知道如何將品牌打造成奢侈品巨頭。拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)很容易轉型為一個價位更高的奢侈品牌。

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Through the first nine months ended Dec. 25, Ralph Lauren had operating income of $761.6 million from $4.7 billion in sales. In the same period a year ago, it had an operating loss of $17.9 million from $3.11 billion in sales.

截至12月25日的前九個月,拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)的銷售額為47億美元,營業收入為7.616億美元。去年同期,該公司銷售額為31.1億美元,運營虧損1790萬美元。

If the deal happens, Ralph Lauren should take the purchase price in LVMH stock. In the hands of the French firm, his family will be taken care of for generations to come.

如果這筆交易達成,拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)應該接受LVMH股票的收購價。在這家法國公司手中,他的家人將世世代代得到照顧。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Equinor (EQNR)

風險反彈股票買入:Equinor(EQNR)

Norwegian energy giant Equinor is based in Stavanger, a town I once visited for a wedding of a good friend. Once a sleepy village, it came alive in the mid-to-late 1960s when the North Sea oil field got further developed.

挪威能源巨頭Equinor的總部設在斯塔萬格,我曾去過這個小鎮參加一位好朋友的婚禮。它曾經是一個沉睡的村莊,在20世紀60年代中後期北海油田進一步開發時活躍了起來。

In May 2018, Statoil became Equinor to reflect the fact it was no longer just oil and gas. It's also wind and solar. It expects to grow its renewable energy capacity ten-fold by 2026. By 2030, it will have 12-16 megawatts of net production capacity from renewables.

2018年5月,挪威國家石油公司成為Equinor,以反映它不再只是石油和天然氣的事實。它也是風能和太陽能。預計到2026年,其可再生能源產能將增長10倍。到2030年,它將擁有12-16兆瓦的可再生能源淨生產能力。

In the meantime, its oil and gas business is expected to generate $45 billion in free cash flow between 2021 and 2026. However, that's based on a $60 barrel of oil. For every day oil trades above $100, that adds to the total. (Brent crude was hovering just below $127 as this article went to press.)

與此同時,其石油和天然氣業務預計將在2021年至2026年間產生450億美元的自由現金流。然而,這是基於每桶60美元的油價。每一天油價超過100美元,總交易量就會增加。(本文發稿時,布倫特原油徘徊在略低於127美元的水平。)

In 2021, Equinor had adjusted after-tax net income of $10 billion from the production of 2.08 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and 1,562-gigawatt-hours (GWh). At the moment, its oil breakeven is $35 a barrel.

2021年,Equinor調整了100億美元的税後淨收入,每天生產208萬桶油當量(mboe/d)和1562千兆瓦時(GWh)。目前,其石油盈虧平衡是每桶35美元。

In 2022, it plans to buy back $5 billion of its stock. Its quarterly dividend of 20 cents currently yields 2.4%. EQNR stock is up almost 26% YTD and 69% over the past year. Despite the big gains, a risk-on rally would likely push its stock into the $40s and an all-time high.

2022年,該公司計劃回購50億美元的股票。其季度股息為20美分,目前收益率為2.4%。EQNR的股價今年以來上漲了近26%,過去一年上漲了69%。儘管漲幅很大,但風險反彈可能會將其股價推高至40美元以上,創下歷史新高。

The government of Norway owns 67% of Equinor stock. The country remains in charge of its own energy needs. That's a good thing.

挪威政府擁有Equinor 67%的股份。這個國家仍然控制着自己的能源需求。這是件好事。

Fresenius SE (FSNUY)

費森尤斯SE(FSNUY)

Source: Shutterstock
消息來源:Shutterstock

Fresenius is a German-based healthcare holding company.

費森尤斯是一家總部位於德國的醫療控股公司。

It owns or has an interest in four different businesses: 32% of Fresenius Medical Care (NYSE:FMS), 100% of Fresenius Kabi manufactures hospital supplies and medical devices, 100% of Fresenius Helios, Europe's largest private operator of hospitals, and 77% of Fresenius Vamed, which manages healthcare projects and provides services for hospitals and other healthcare facilities in 95 countries.

它擁有或擁有四項不同業務的權益:32%費森尤斯醫療保健(紐約證券交易所代碼:FMS),100%費森尤斯·卡比生產醫院用品和醫療器械,100%費森尤斯·赫利奧斯,歐洲最大的私營醫院運營商,77%的費森尤斯·瓦米德,該公司管理醫療項目,併為95個國家的醫院和其他醫療機構提供服務。

For all of 2021, Fresenius had 37.5 billion Euros ($41.0 billion) in revenue, 5% higher YOY excluding currency, and 1.87 billion Euros ($2.0 billion) in net income, also 5% higher than 2020.

2021年全年,費森尤斯的收入為375億歐元(合410億美元),不包括貨幣的收入同比增長5%,淨利潤為18.7億歐元(20億美元),也比2020年增長了5%。

Free cash flow, while down in 2021, was still 3.06 billion Euros ($3.35 billion), or 8.2% of its total revenue. Based on a 15.7 billion ($17.2 billion) market cap, it has an FCF yield of 19.5%. I consider anything over 8% to be value territory.

自由現金流雖然在2021年有所下降,但仍為30.6億歐元(33.5億美元),佔其總收入的8.2%。基於157億歐元(合172億美元)的市值,它的FCF收益率為19.5%。我認為任何超過8%的都是有價值的領域。

The company plans to get its net debt to EBITDA ratio down to as low as 3.0x in 2022. It expects 5% revenue growth and low-single-digit growth of net income. Down 24% in 2022, Fresenius is definitely the value play of the seven.

該公司計劃在2022年將淨債務與EBITDA的比率降至3.0倍。該公司預計營收將增長5%,淨利潤將實現較低的個位數增長。2022年,費森尤斯的股價下跌了24%,絕對是七家公司中最有價值的一家。

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Fresenius has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years. It pays out a conservative 20-25% of earnings.

費森尤斯已連續29年增加股息。它支付了保守的收入的20%-25%。

Approximately 27% of the company is owned by the Else Kröner Fresenius Stiftung, a foundation established by Else Kröner, the German entrepreneur who built a massive healthcare business from a small Frankfurt pharmaceutical company.

該公司約27%的股份由Else Kröner Fresenius Stiftung擁有,該基金會由德國企業家Else Kröner創立,他從法蘭克福的一家小型製藥公司創建了一家規模龐大的醫療保健企業。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: CK Hutchison Holdings (CKHUY)

風險反彈股票買入:長和控股(CKHUY Holdings)

Source: Sorbis / Shutterstock.com
來源:Sorbis/Shutterstock.com

A close second to Fresenius as a value play is the Hong-Kong investment company founded and controlled by billionaire Li Ka-Shing. Mr. Li is the 42nd-wealthiest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a net worth of $29.2 billion. He is said to be Hong Kong's wealthiest person.

在價值投資方面僅次於費森尤斯(Fresenius)的是由億萬富翁李嘉誠(Li Ka-shing)創立並控股的香港投資公司。李先生在全球富豪排行榜上排名第42位彭博億萬富翁指數擁有292億美元的淨資產。據説他是香港首富。

Li founded the company in 1950. He led the conglomerate until stepping down in 2018. Li's son Victor took over as chairman from his dad. He remains the chief executive of the holding company.

李於1950年創立了這家公司。他領導這家企業集團,直到2018年卸任。李嘉誠的兒子維克多(Victor)從父親手中接過董事長一職。他仍是控股公司的首席執行官。

The company has five major businesses: Ports and Related Services (12% of EBITDA), Retail (17%), Infrastructure (22%), Telecom (47%), and Finance & Investments (2%). In the six months ended June 30, 2021, the company had revenues of 212.39 billion Hong Kong Dollars ($27.18 billion) and EBITDA of 68.17 billion Hong Kong Dollars ($8.72 billion), good for a 32% EBITDA margin.

該公司有五大業務:港口和相關服務(佔EBITDA的12%)、零售(17%)、基礎設施(22%)、電信(47%)和金融與投資(2%)。在截至2021年6月30日的六個月中,該公司營收為2,123.9億港元(271.8億美元),EBITDA為681.7億港元(87.2億美元),EBITDA利潤率高達32%。

At first look, CK Hutchison looks like a terrible investment. It has an annualized total return of -6.77%.

乍一看,長和似乎是一筆糟糕的投資。它的年化總回報率為-6.77%。

It might not be in Berkshire Hathaway's league, but it's close. However, in recent years, compared to the Hang Seng Index — it is down 24.7% over the past year compared to -6.34% for CK Hutchison — it's doing fine.

它可能不在伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的行列中,但已經很接近了。不過,最近幾年,與過去幾年相比,恆生指數-與長和的-6.34%相比,它在過去一年裏下跌了24.7%-它做得很好。

It might not be in Berkshire's league, but its assets are worth far more than investors are currently valuing them.

它可能不在伯克希爾的行列中,但它的資產價值遠遠高於投資者目前對它們的估值。

On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,威爾·阿什沃斯沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南.

The post 7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally appeared first on InvestorPlace.

為即將到來的Risk-on Rally買入的POST 7股票首先出現在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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