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Inflation 2022 | Do you pay more for your auto-insurance?

Inflation 2022 | Do you pay more for your auto-insurance?

通脹2022年|你會為你的汽車保險支付更高的費用嗎?
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2022/02/13 22:39
By Thomas Gryta 
託馬斯·格里塔(Thomas Gryta)著

Inflation is seeping through American business, hitting companies in unexpected ways beyond higher prices for materials, shipping or wages.

通貨膨脹正在滲透到美國企業,以超出材料、運輸或工資價格上漲的意想不到的方式打擊公司。

It is adding to legal costs for the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, driving up the bill for auto repairs at $Allstate(ALL.US)$, prompting people to pay less of their credit-card balances and stoking concerns of shrinking ad spending at social-media companies.

這增加了萬寶路香煙製造商的法律成本,推高了汽車維修費用$好事達(ALL.US)$這促使人們減少支付信用卡餘額,並引發了人們對社交媒體公司廣告支出縮減的擔憂。

While companies have been sounding the alarm on inflation for the past year, economists were mostly playing down the rising prices as a temporary disruption caused by the reopening of the economy. Instead, inflation has persisted and recently hit its highest rate in four decades, pushing the Federal Reserve to accelerate its plan to raise interest rates.

儘管企業在過去一年裏一直在敲響通脹警鐘,但經濟學家們大多將不斷上漲的價格淡化為經濟重新開放造成的暫時幹擾。相反,通脹持續存在,最近達到了40年來的最高水平,推動美聯儲(Federal Reserve)加快了加息計劃。

To preserve profits, companies are passing along more price increases to customers as inflation shows no signs of slowing down.

為了保住利潤,隨着通脹沒有顯示出放緩的跡象,企業正在將更多的漲價轉嫁給客户。

"It kind of cascades from initially a small set of goods to a much larger set of goods," said Chester Spatt, who was chief economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission from 2004 to 2007 and is now a professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University.

切斯特·斯帕特(Chester Spatt)在2004年至2007年擔任美國證券交易委員會(Securities And Exchange Commission)首席經濟學家,現在是卡內基梅隆大學(Carnegie Mellon University)金融學教授。

Rising prices aren't the main problem with inflation, he said; it is that prices are rising by different amounts at different times. As some prices rise more than others, companies and consumers might change their spending plans, something that can affect the economy as a whole.

他説,物價上漲不是通脹的主要問題,而是物價在不同時期上漲的幅度不同。由於一些價格的漲幅超過其他價格,企業和消費者可能會改變他們的支出計劃,這可能會影響整體經濟。

"If all prices moved by the same amount that would be cause for some concern, but it would be neutral," Mr. Spatt said. "Inflation is also an indication that there is a lot of relative variability in pricing."

斯帕特説,“如果所有價格的變動幅度都一樣,那將會引起一些擔憂,但這將是中性的。”“通脹也表明,定價存在很大的相對變異性。”

Car and home insurer Allstate cited inflation, specifically the surge in used-car prices, for the increased costs of auto-accident claims. Used-car values started climbing in late 2020 and accelerated in 2021 to rise 68% since the beginning of 2019, Allstate said when it reported earnings this month. The higher prices are reflected in insurer payments for totaled vehicles.

汽車和家庭保險公司好事達(Allstate)將汽車事故索賠成本增加的原因歸因於通脹,特別是二手車價格飆升。好事達本月公佈財報時表示,二手車價值從2020年末開始攀升,2021年加速攀升,自2019年初以來上漲了68%。較高的價格反映在保險公司對總計車輛的支付上。

In the first half of 2021, Allstate's profit from auto-insurance underwriting was more than $1.7 billion because a drop in accident frequency offset the rising severity of claims. The number of accidents rose toward pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, and the cost of claims continued to rise, resulting in a more than $450 million underwriting loss over the period.

2021年上半年,好事達來自汽車保險承保的利潤超過17億美元,因為事故頻率的下降抵消了日益嚴重的索賠。今年下半年,事故數量上升到大流行前的水平,索賠成本持續上升,導致這一時期的承保損失超過4.5億美元。

Glenn Shapiro, president of Allstate's property-liability business, said the supply-chain problems and chip shortages that are driving up prices aren't expected to clear up this year. Meanwhile, the growth in used-car prices should calm down in future quarters, he said. Used-car prices rose 40.5% in January from a year earlier, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department.

好事達房地產責任業務總裁夏皮羅(Glenn Shapiro)説,正在推高價格的供應鏈問題和芯片短缺預計今年不會好轉。與此同時,他表示,二手車價格的增長在未來幾個季度應該會平息下來。美國勞工部週四公佈的數據顯示,1月份二手車價格同比上漲40.5%。

"There's likely some sort of structural maximum that used-car prices go to," Mr. Shapiro said on the company's earnings call. "They probably won't end up exceeding new cars' prices."

夏皮羅在公司財報電話會議上説,“二手車價格可能會達到某種結構性上限。”“它們最終可能不會超過新車的價格。”

Allstate started raising auto rates in the second half of 2021. It is a reversal from earlier in the pandemic when it was sending refunds to customers as Americans in 2020 were hunkered down in homes.

好事達在2021年下半年開始提高汽車費率。這與疫情早些時候的情況發生了逆轉,當時該公司向客户退款,因為2020年的美國人都呆在家裏。

A Wall Street Journal analysis of 280 companies that had reported quarterly earnings as of Feb. 4 showed that 79% had some discussion of inflation in their conference calls.

“華爾街日報”(Wall Street Journal)對280家截至2月4日公佈季度收益的公司進行的分析顯示,79%的公司在電話會議中對通脹進行了一些討論。

For some companies, the increased costs are contractual. Marlboro cigarette maker Altria Group Inc. expects that inflation will increase the amount it pays from a 1998 landmark tobacco settlement, it said last month. The settlement hit cigarette makers with legal liabilities that led to $200 billion in costs over the years.

對於一些公司來説,增加的成本是合同規定的。萬寶路捲煙製造商奧馳亞集團(Altria Group Inc.)上個月表示,預計通貨膨脹將增加其從1998年裏程碑式的煙草和解協議中支付的金額。和解協議給捲煙製造商帶來了法律責任,多年來導致了2000億美元的成本。

Annual payments under the settlement are determined using several components, including an inflation adjustment, which is the higher of either 3% a year or the government's inflation data published in January, according to Altria's regulatory filings. The Labor Department reported Thursday that the consumer-price index rose to a 7.5% annual rate in January.

根據奧馳亞提交給監管機構的文件,和解協議下的年度付款是使用幾個組成部分來確定的,包括通脹調整,通脹調整是每年3%或政府1月份公佈的通脹數據中的較高者。美國勞工部(Labor Department)週四公佈,1月份消費者價格指數(CPI)按年率計算升至7.5%。

Among social-media companies, Twitter Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. played down impact from inflation on their operations but also warned that rising costs affecting other businesses -- such as freight, materials and wages -- could curb advertiser spending.

在社交媒體公司中,推特(Twitter Inc.)和Facebook母公司Meta Platforms Inc.淡化了通脹對其運營的影響,但也警告説,影響運費、材料和工資等其他業務的成本上升可能會抑制廣告商的支出。

"We're hearing from advertisers that macroeconomic challenges like cost inflation and supply-chain disruptions are impacting advertiser budgets, " said Meta Chief Financial Officer David Wehner on a conference call this month.

Meta首席財務官David Wehner在本月的一次電話會議上表示:“我們從廣告商那裏聽到,成本上漲和供應鏈中斷等宏觀經濟挑戰正在影響廣告商的預算。”

Twitter's CFO Ned Segal said inflation could affect the company in a few different ways, including higher wages and brands shifting what goods and services they choose to advertise. "We're not yet seeing real impact from inflation in how our advertising and content partners show up on Twitter," Mr. Segal said.

推特首席財務官內德·西格爾表示,通貨膨脹可能會以幾種不同的方式影響公司,包括更高的工資和品牌改變他們選擇做廣告的商品和服務。西格爾説,“我們還沒有看到通脹對我們的廣告和內容合作伙伴在Twitter上出現的方式產生真正的影響。”

The steep rises in prices paid by consumers for items such as food, gas and furniture might develop into cautious spending, some financial-services firms said.

一些金融服務公司説,消費者為食品、汽油和傢俱等商品支付的價格大幅上漲,可能會演變為謹慎支出。

Credit-card issuer Synchrony Financial said the percentage of customers making payments covering their entire balances or more has dropped slightly, with a growing share making minimum payments or lower.

信用卡發行商Synchrony Financial説,支付全部或更多餘額的客户比例略有下降,支付最低還款額或更低的比例不斷上升。

The company said spending rose in the second half of 2021 and payment rates, or the amount people pay against their balance, began to fall from historically elevated levels. The company also pointed to the expiration of government aid to consumers.

該公司表示,2021年下半年支出上升,支付率,即人們支付的餘額開始從歷史高位回落。該公司還指出,政府對消費者的援助即將到期。

"Elevated consumer spending, lower consumer savings, inflationary pressures and return to full financial obligations has begun to impact the accumulated savings levels by consumers, which we believe will lead to a moderation in payment rate," said Synchrony CFO Brian Wenzel on a January conference call.

Synchrony首席財務官布萊恩·温澤爾(Brian Wenzel)在1月份的一次電話會議上表示:“消費者支出增加、消費者儲蓄減少、通脹壓力以及全額財政義務的迴歸,已經開始影響消費者累積的儲蓄水平,我們認為這將導致支付率的放緩,”Synchrony CFO布萊恩·温澤爾(Brian Wenzel)在1月份的電話會議上表示。

Payments company PayPal Holdings Inc. said the persistence of inflation's effects on personal consumption, along with labor shortages, supply-chain issues and weaker consumer sentiment, have led it to adopt a more-cautious outlook.

支付公司貝寶控股公司(PayPal Holdings Inc.)説,通脹對個人消費的持續影響,加上勞動力短缺、供應鏈問題和消費者信心減弱,導致該公司採取了更為謹慎的前景。

"Our medium-term targets simply did not contemplate inflation at a 40-year high and supply-chain issues not seen in my lifetime," CFO John Rainey said on a conference call this month.

首席財務官約翰·雷尼(John Rainey)在本月的一次電話會議上表示:“我們的中期目標完全沒有考慮到40年來的最高通脹率,以及我有生以來從未見過的供應鏈問題。”

--Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this article.

薩爾瓦多·羅德里格斯對本文也有貢獻。

Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta@wsj.com

寫信給Thomas Gryta,電子郵件:thomas.gryta@wsj.com

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