share_log

“顶流”周应波四季报出炉:重仓股大换血,4000字详解投资策略

"Top flow" Zhou Yingbo four Seasons report: heavy stocks change blood, 4000 words explain the investment strategy in detail.

智通財經 ·  Jan 22, 2022 18:48

China Europe Innovation, jointly managed by Zhou Yingbo, Zhou Weiwen, Shao Jie and Liu Jinhui, will release its fourth-quarter performance report on the closed operation of hybrid securities investment funds in the next 18 months. By the end of the fourth quarter, the size of the fund had reached 11.246 billion yuan, an increase of about 6 per cent. During the reporting period, the net return on fund shares was 5.96%, and the benchmark rate of return on performance in the same period was 0.97%.

After stepping down as fund manager of several funds in December, Zhou Yingbo, a star fund manager, was left with the only fund managed by CEIBS Innovation Future. Zhou Yingbo wrote a "small composition" of more than 4000 words in his quarterly report, expounding in detail the investment framework formed after more than six years as a fund manager and his thoughts on the main line of future stock market investment.

High position operationThere are only three of the top ten heavy stocks left.

In terms of equity positions, CEIBS maintained a high position in the next 18 months in the fourth quarter of last year, with equity investment accounting for 95.99% of the fund's total assets, up slightly from 95.52% at the end of the third quarter. By the end of last year, the net asset value of the fund was 11.246 billion yuan.

From the perspective of industry configuration, Zhou Yingbo increased his holdings in consumer electronics and media stocks in the fourth quarter, while reducing the allocation proportion of financial, non-ferrous chemicals and new energy vehicle-related stocks to a certain extent.

Specific to heavy stocks, the top ten stocks at the end of the third quarter to the end of the fourth quarter, only three are still on the list.Specifically, $Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $is still the largest stock with a slight reduction in its holdings.Lixun Precision has been increased its position.It jumped to the second largest stock at the end of the fourth quarter, while Huayou Cobalt reduced its holdings of more than one million shares, ranking fifth.

According to the report, the top 10 heavy stocks of the fund are Shunyu Optics, Lixun Precision, Salt Lake, Wentai Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Blue cursor, Mango Supermedium, Desai Battery,$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $, Pengding Holdings.

图片.png

The main adjustments in the allocation of the Fund include:First, it has greatly reduced the allocation position of Hong Kong stocks and focused on A-share investment; second, in terms of industry configuration, the allocation proportion of consumer electronics and media has been increased due to the optimism of automobile intelligence, metamosmos and other industries. at the same time, it reduces the allocation proportion of finance and non-ferrous chemical industry from the perspective of "preventing macro risks", and reduces the allocation proportion of new energy vehicles and medicine from "reducing the risk of crowded trading direction". Third, adhere to the focus on individual stocks, to understand the certainty of growth, trusted management to continue to "entrust the important task".

Zhou Yingbo also stressed that the overall investment strategy has been consistent since the establishment of the Innovation Future Fund in October 2020. one is to pay close attention to the fund contract and really focus on the related industries with the theme of "innovative future", and the other is to focus on mining "differentiated growth stocks" in general, focusing on new energy, TMT and other areas that the fund management team is relatively good at. The third is to attach importance to the duration constraints of fund holders during the 18-month closed period, combined with the investment goal of absolute income, to shield "ranking anxiety" and cling to "money-making goals".

The importance of Hong Kong stock allocation is lowered in the fund portfolio.

Zhou Yingbo believes that it is relatively short-sighted to observe the market or predict the style from a quarterly perspective. If you look back at the whole year of 2021, the differentiation pattern of the industry boom is very clear. Power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, iron and steel are five industries with an increase of more than 40% in 2021. 2021 is recognized as the first year of the "energy revolution era". The technological maturity of the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industry has promoted large-scale promotion, and the global demand for "double carbon" has further promoted the recognition of the capital market-such a process. In the fourth quarter, the Hong Kong stock market continued to weaken, especially Hang Seng Technology and some consumer stocks fell more, while stable industries such as public utilities showed a strong trend.

In the fourth quarter, the Hong Kong stock market continued to weaken, especially Hang Seng Technology and some consumer stocks fell more, while stable industries such as public utilities showed a strong trend. Judging from the experience of the past few yearsFor Zhou Yingbo, the Hong Kong stock market has the following remarkable characteristicsFirst, in the offshore market, liquidity is affected by both the mainland and the world, and the market fluctuates greatly between optimism and pessimism; second, it is highly market-oriented, attracting a number of domestic leading enterprises in the new economy to list on the list. in terms of the supply of high-quality listed companies, it is a market that can not be ignored. Third, the investment experience of domestic institutional investors is still inadequate. judging from our practice in the past four years, the effect of investing in Hong Kong stocks is not very satisfactory.

At the same time of the above summaryIn terms of investment strategy, we have lowered the importance of Hong Kong stock allocation in the fund portfolio.And hopes to accumulate more solid research experience of Hong Kong stock companies in the next few years. Charlie Munger said that "determining the boundary of our ability is the most important thing." now Xiangjiang is still a very important boundary of our ability.

"actively looking for new vivid energy", the transformation of the economic structure has reached the stage where the old kinetic energy has receded and the new kinetic energy has stood on the foreground in an all-round way. in addition to the "energy revolution," we have noticed that the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality (meta-universe) and synthetic biology is also approaching maturity, and the related industrial chain is beginning to grow rapidly, which is a noteworthy investment opportunity in the future. At the very beginning, the new opportunities in the new era are always budding, difficult to calculate and full of uncertain paths, but their most fundamental characteristic is full of vitality. We firmly believe that the next 10 years will be a decade of scientific and technological growth. China's scientific and technological growth industry will profoundly change the social life and economic system of China and even the world. The first clue is the "low carbon-energy revolution" line established in 2020-2021, and there will be a second and third clue.

A systematic exposition of the investment framework

In the quarterly report, Zhou Yingbo also systematically expounded our understanding of the investment framework.

The first angle is "change and immutability". What remains unchanged is that as a fund manager, he should have the goal of putting the interests of the holders first, maintain a diligent and responsible work attitude, and do research in a realistic and pragmatic manner. What has changed? the investment framework and investment concept are not meant to solve the problem by reading a few sentences, let alone following several formulas at home and abroad. First, according to the national conditions and the background of the times, the corporate system can be traced back to about the 16th-17th century, and the stock market has appeared in the world for only 200 years, taking into account the different development trajectories of various economies since the 20th century. national conditions and background of the times are not only an important basis for the development of industries and enterprises, but also an inseparable basis for investment in the capital market. The second is to combine the capital attributes of the managed products and talk about the investment framework and ideas without the "time scale". As emerging institutional investors in emerging capital markets, they often mention to learn the classical theories of many investment masters in Europe and the United States. but a very important constraint is the "time scale" of capital sources of asset management products, both fund managers and fund sales channels have a long way to go. Third, the essence of fund investment is a kind of trust of holders to fund managers and the whole fund company team. the starting point for fund managers to iterate and apply their own investment framework is not how exquisite and outstanding the investment framework is, but from the point of view of being responsible to the holders and from the advantages and disadvantages of the fund management team itself, to formulate investment strategies suitable for specific scale, fund duration and holder structure.

The second point of view is that we should focus on "the medium-and long-term value growth of the enterprise". Whether it is an individual fund manager or a fund company investment research team with different management scale, the energy and ability circle are limited. In the face of the complex and broad capital market, they should have their own choices, and it is impossible to have everything. Although there are various opportunities for short-term thematic investment, technical analysis, policy information, etc., the main energy of institutional investors should focus on "medium-and long-term value growth of enterprises". First, from the point of view of the nature of things, the source of value growth in the stock market is brought about by the value growth of enterprises, and it is also necessary to reduce the consumption and wear of a large number of intermediate transactions and financial commissions. Second, from a professional point of view, this is the only thing that institutional investors can do well, studying enterprises well in certain areas that they are good at, and examples at other levels, such as trading capacity, technical analysis, and inquiry policies. can not be regarded as "icing on the cake" but almost like a monkey play. Third, despite a round of macroeconomic fluctuations and the ups and downs of the industrial boom, it seems to be a matter of switching between 1 and 2 years. However, if we look a little longer at the companies that really come out through time and create great growth value, 100% rely on the improvement of their own performance and value center, which brings about the growth of the reflected value of enterprises in the capital market. Both global and domestic investment institutions that seize such investment opportunities can far outperform the market in the long run.

The third angle is the growth stocks we hope to grasp, and our understanding is to seek "differentiation". Whether it is Coca-Cola Company's taste, Herm è s's mental positioning, or the uniqueness of Apple Inc's mobile phone iOS ecology, they all represent the great differentiation created at the level of consumer goods, bringing the company's long-term lead in profit margins and business growth. There are differences in natural endowments, such as the historical brand of Maotai, the formula of Coca-Cola Company, as well as the huge advantages of technological consumer goods created by technology research and development and management. At the level of China's manufacturing industry, we used to see a growth miracle caused by huge differences in cost control and production organization and management. from basic assembly to now gradually entering the core industrial chain links such as chip manufacturing and precision parts matching, a large number of enterprises with strong competitiveness and long-term vitality have emerged, in which there are regional (labor) advantages. There is more value brought by the long-term efforts of differentiated management. A small part of the "differentiation" we hope to seek is natural endowment, but the most important thing is that excellent corporate management, long-term R & D investment and even correct corporate values are the main sources of differentiation. " The historical brand of "still water flowing deep" can create shareholder value, but it really promotes historical progress, the improvement of social living standards, and brings huge growth from scratch, which must be innovation-driven and entrepreneurial spirit-driven "ride the wind and waves".

Looking back on the fund management over the past six years, what I remember most is the mistakes and lessons I made in the investment. In the vast capital market, there are long slopes and thick snow as well as desert sand and dust. we often imagine our investment framework as a "round rolling stone that can stick to thick snow", but countless times we have found that it is only a "funnel for filtering gravel". Confucius said, "you know what you know, you don't know, you don't know, you know." Charlie Munger said, "determining the boundaries of your abilities is the most important thing." the greatest achievement of fund management over the years is to know a lot of things that you are not good at and can't do well. Looking to the future, there are more and more companies with core competitiveness and endogenous sustainable value growth in China's capital market, which is the basis for us to invest in growth stocks. We hope to continue to be realistic and pragmatic and look for good "differentiated growth stocks" in long-term promising new energy, TMT, high-end manufacturing and pharmaceutical innovation, so as to create returns for investors.

Edit / Ray

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment