Under the influence of multiple factors of "housing speculation" and "three red lines", real estate stocks, once the "leading brother", experienced a difficult time in 2021.

However, after being in the doldrums for a whole year, the valuation advantage of real estate stocks has gradually become prominent. with the recent policy warm wind and good news, the Hong Kong stock market, the real estate sector has ushered in a strong rebound in the near future. Industry insiders saidAt present, the real estate sector has ample room for upward valuation and has the advantage of being able to defend and attack.

Huaxi Securities said that at present, the real estate sector valuation is still relatively low, strong performance certainty, high dividends, worthy of attention.

Citic Construction Investment believes that the current industry policy has bottomed out and has improved, while the fundamental data are in the process of continuing to decline and have not yet entered the recovery period. The fundamental data from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 are likely to continue to decline, and the policy warmth will be more obvious, which is the best time to allocate the real estate sector.

Galaxy Securities believes that at present, real estate is in the combination of "basic bottom" and "policy bottom", and the current characteristics of "low valuation, low position and high dividend" have sufficient margin of safety and flexibility.

Core point of view

The year-on-year decline in sales expanded in December and was positive for the second month in a row.

In December 2021, the sales area of new homes in 30 cities grew by-22.79% compared with the same period last year, with a month-on-month growth rate of 16.16%. In terms of first -, second-and third-tier cities, in terms of the same period last year, the increment of transaction area in the first, second and third lines in December was-20.56%, 9.52% and 45.30%, respectively; in terms of month-on-month comparison, the growth rates in the first, second and third lines were 12.44%, 27.29% and 1.78%, respectively. Judging from the current policy statement, demand and supply-side support has been strengthened to underpin the fundamentals of "stall", but considering that it takes time to digest risk events and restore confidence in buying houses, the recovery of sales is also a little longer than in the past. it is expected to stabilize in the second quarter of next year, and the growth rate of national commercial housing sales in 22 years is about-7.7% compared with the same period last year.

The removal cycle decreases slightly, and the overall inventory is not high.

The stock-to-sales ratio of the top ten cities was 11.16, compared with-0.54 last month, and the month-on-month ratio of the elimination cycle was-4.62%, which was + 12.61% compared with the same period last year. With the repair of market sales, the elimination cycle decreased slightly. The stock-to-sales ratio of first-tier and second-tier cities was 8.69 and 13.37 respectively, which was-0.46 and-0.55 respectively compared with the previous month. 4.20 .

The bottom of the policy has passed and the warm wind is blowing slowly.

Since September, the policy has made a consistent and warm statement on real estate, and we think that the bottom of the policy has passed. the future policy landing has the following aspects: 1) the tone of "housing speculation" remains unchanged, and it is difficult to reproduce the loose style of "releasing water"; 2) strengthen credit support for first and improved housing, or adopt an one-city-by-city policy in terms of down payment ratio, interest rate, purchase rules, etc.; 3) strengthen financing support for real estate enterprises 4) all localities will have greater autonomy to make policy adjustments, and in the future, "limit rise" and "limit fall" will go hand in hand, and "regulation" and "adjustment" will go hand in hand.

Central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises have good financial health and strong credit.

From a financial point of view, the overall risk indicators of the industry are healthy, and high-quality leading housing enterprises perform well under the measurement of risk indicators; from the perspective of debt repayment pressure, the debt repayment pressure will decrease in the next three years, and the debt repayment pressure will be greater in the first half of 2022. There will be a slow release in the second half of the year, and the credit stratification logic of real estate enterprises will be strengthened.

Property management: from universal growth to differentiation and from dependence to independence

From the point of view of the 22 key tracking companies, the 21H1 performance continues to increase, and the growth rate is not obviously linked to the volume; the high joint management ratio shows the certainty of performance; the proportion of third-party extension continues to increase, gradually moving towards independent operation. The property management plate is still a golden track, and the 21-year M & A boom also indicates that the industry scale expansion and resource integration have entered a new stage. The development of value-added services continues to empower high growth, and the relaxation of real estate policy brings layout opportunities.

Investment suggestion

Short-term dimension:Warmer policies have pushed valuations higher. At present, it is in the combination of "basic bottom" and "policy bottom", and the policy support is gradually strengthened, gradually from the credit side to the demand side, and the key factors that suppressed valuation have been slowly released. the current characteristics of "low valuation, low position and high dividend" have sufficient margin of safety and flexibility.

In the short term, the impact of policy on the flexibility of plate valuation is greater than that of performance on valuation, and plate valuation generally begins to rise at the bottom of the "basic bottom" + "policy bottom". We believe that the best window for configuration is from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022.

Medium-and long-term dimensions:Concentration accelerated + earnings stabilized expectations, good for the "three good housing enterprises". At present, the risks of the industry have not yet been exposed, and although there are labor pains in the accelerated clearing stage, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages for long-term development. After the industry clearing is over, the concentration will be further enhanced, and the credit pattern will also be reshaped. At the same time, the decline in land premium rate has also brought profit stabilization expectations. We believe that in the medium to long term, the "three good housing enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium.

Property management:The property management plate is still a golden track, and the 21-year M & A boom also indicates that the industry scale expansion and resource integration have entered a new stage. The development of value-added services continues to empower high growth, and the relaxation of real estate policy brings layout opportunities. The industry attributes of light assets, low debt ratio and stable cash flow provide support for valuation, while high performance guidance and corporate brand strength create imagination space for valuation improvement. With the intensification of competition and the improvement of business efficiency, the high-quality property management companies with strong brand power, strong business development ability and high operating efficiency will usher in market recognition.

We suggest that we should pay attention to the leading stocks in the quality housing development industry:Vanke A, Poly Real Estate, Jindi Group, China Merchants Shekou, Metro Holdings, Jinke sharesIt is recommended to pay attention to quality property management companies:Investment Promotion surplus, Country Garden Services Holdings, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, Xuhui Yongsheng Service, Jinke Service, New Dazheng.

Risk hint

The risk that the risk event is higher than expected, the development of the epidemic is uncertain, and the improvement of the financing environment is less than expected.