Source: CITIC study
Author: yuan Jiancong, Yin Xinchi, Li Harrier, Wu Weichen, Teng Guanxing, Huang Yaoting, Ke Mai.
On December 31, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries jointly issued a notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. Among them, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has declined by 30% on the basis of 2021, the current technical indicators remain unchanged, and the scale of subsidies has been liberalized from the original upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the relevant policies are in line with expectations. We continue to maintain the high-profile judgment of the new energy vehicle industry in 2022, and at this point we continue to suggest that we take advantage of the high-quality targets of the global electrified supply chain, especially Tesla, Inc., Ningde era, LG chemical supply chain, and vehicle quality targets.
On December 31, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission issued a circular on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022.
The current technical indicators remain unchanged, and the intensity of subsidy slope reduction is generally in line with expectations.
In 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system for purchase subsidies will remain unchanged: the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, of which 300 km 400 km pure electric vehicles / 400 km pure electric vehicles / plug-in hybrid models will be subsidized by 9100 per cent, 12600 and 4800 yuan respectively (13000 / 18000 pounds per year in 2021) Among them, vehicles that meet the requirements of vehicle models, urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including ride-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express delivery, civil aviation airports and the official fields of party and government organs will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021.
The maximum size of 2 million vehicles has been lifted, and subsidies will run through the whole of 2022.
The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will end on December 31, 2022, after which licensed vehicles will no longer be subsidized. At the same time, the current technical indicators related to the purchase subsidy will remain unchanged in 2022, while the scale of the subsidy will be liberalized from the original upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout 2022. In addition, the policy mentioned that it will continue to strengthen the audit and do a good job in the liquidation and completion of the promotion vehicles in the previous year. We believe that the overall stability of the relevant policy details will promote the continued growth of the new energy vehicle market.
High-quality models continue to lead, and the high growth rate of the industry can be expected.
With the stable landing of the subsidy policy in 2022 and the continuous launch of superimposed high-quality models, the general trend of intelligent electric in the industry will continue to accelerate, promoting electrification and intelligence. Domestically, we maintain our 2022 sales forecast for new energy vehicles, and expect sales for the whole year to reach 4.8 million, an increase of 38 per cent over the same period last year. In Europe, the European market is expected to show rapid growth in the future under the increasingly stringent new rules on carbon emissions. In the United States, the policy environment is warming up, and the electrification process is expected to speed up. We expect sales to reach 300 / 8 million vehicles by 2025 / 2030, with a penetration rate of nearly 20% and a compound growth rate of 50% in 2021-25.
Risk factors.
The sales of new energy vehicles are not up to expectations; the duration of the overseas epidemic is uncertain; the implementation of new energy vehicle policies in various countries is not up to expectations; and the epidemic situation is repeated in some parts of the country.
Investment strategy
The upper limit of subsidy scale is liberalized to enhance the prosperity of the industry, and the upward trend of the industry is clear. The technical requirements of the products remain unchanged, and with the improvement of battery technology, the scale of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to improve. The current time point continues to suggest that we should take advantage of the high-quality targets of the global electrified supply chain, especially Tesla, Inc., Ningde era, LG chemical supply chain, as well as vehicle quality targets, including
1) battery / motor link$Ningde era (300750.SZ) $、$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $(Abach),$billion Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) $、$Xinwangda (300207.SZ) $、$Jingda shares (600577.SH) $Etc.; lithium electric material$German nanometer (300769.SZ) $、$Zhongwei Co. (300919.SZ) $、$Pudailai (603659.SH) $、$Cedar Co., Ltd. (600884.SH) $、$Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ) $、$New Zeus (300037.SZ) $、Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549.SH) $And so on, it is recommended to pay attention toEnjie shares (002812.SZ) $、$Codali (002850.SZ) $、$Divine material (002709.SZ) $；
2) upstream equipment and resources:$Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) $Wait, pay attention to$Hangke Technology (688006.SH) $、$pilot Intelligence (300450.SZ) $；
3) Thermal management supply chain:$Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ) $(thermal Management),Silver Wheel shares (002126.SZ) $(thermal Management),$Top Group (601689.SH) $；
4) the whole vehicle section, we mainly recommend BYD (AYD).$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $/$Great Wall Motor (601633.SH) $，$XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US) $，$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $，$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $，$Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238.HK) $/$Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238.SH) $。
Edit / Jeffy