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Evaluating Our Megatrends of 2021

Evaluating Our Megatrends of 2021

評估我們2021年的大趨勢
InvestorPlace ·  2021/12/22 10:56

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On Jan. 5, 2021, I identified three megatrends I believed would produce great investment opportunities in 2021.

2021年1月5日,我確定了我認為2021年將產生巨大投資機會的三大趨勢。

Source: Dmitry Demidovich / Shutterstock.com
消息來源:Dmitry Demidovich/Shutterstock.com

So now that the year is drawing to a close, let's go back and revisit those influential trends.

現在,這一年已經接近尾聲,讓我們回到過去,重新審視那些有影響力的趨勢。

You can read the full article that was published in January here, but for now, here's a condensed version of the three megatrends I saw leading the charge in 2021 — and how they performed this year.

你可以在這裏閲讀1月份發表的完整文章,但現在,這裏是我看到的2021年引領潮流的三大趨勢的濃縮版本-以及它們今年的表現。

2021 Trend No. 1 — The Battery Metal Boom

2021年趨勢1--電池金屬熱潮

Beginning-of-Year Thoughts: The first major trend that could produce investment winners in 2021 is what I have been calling the "Second Electric Revolution" — the massive worldwide transition from combustion-based modes of power generation to renewable modes that feed an array of electric and battery-based technologies.

開年思緒:2021年可能產生投資贏家的第一個主要趨勢是我一直以來所説的“第二次電氣革命”--即全球範圍內從燃燒發電模式向可再生能源發電模式的大規模轉變,這種模式為一系列電力和電池技術提供了支持。

Because of this revolution, the upcoming decades will require spectacular volumes of nickel, copper, manganese, lithium and other battery metals.

由於這場革命,未來幾十年將需要大量的鎳、銅、錳、鋰和其他電池金屬。

Simple Strategy That Could Beat the Dow by 4X

可能以4倍的速度擊敗道瓊斯工業平均指數的簡單策略

Unlike traditional internal combustion vehicles, EVs are essentially batteries on wheels… and batteries are basically just hunks of metal.

與傳統的內燃機汽車不同,電動汽車本質上是帶輪子的電池…電池基本上只是一大塊金屬。

The average plug-in electric vehicle requires about 200 pounds of copper, which is nearly four times what a midsized internal combustion vehicle requires. Depending on the exact battery chemistry, these vehicles also contain about 50 pounds of nickel, along with meaningful quantities of manganese, aluminum and/or lithium.

一輛插電式電動汽車平均需要大約200磅銅,幾乎是中型內燃車所需銅的四倍。根據電池的確切化學成分,這些車輛還含有大約50磅的鎳,以及大量的錳、鋁和/或鋰。

Day by day, these "metal hogs" are gaining in popularity and taking market share from internal combustion vehicles.

一天比一天,這些“金屬豬”越來越受歡迎,並從內燃機上搶走了市場份額。

In 2018, the global electric vehicle market totaled about $40 billion. But according to Wintergreen Research, that number will soar 40-fold by 2025 to reach $1.5 trillion in annual sales — and these eye-popping projections seem to grow by the day.

2018年,全球電動汽車市場總額約為400億美元。但根據温特格林研究公司(Wintergreen Research)的預測,到2025年,這一數字將飆升40倍,年銷售額將達到1.5萬億美元-而且這些令人瞠目結舌的預測似乎每天都在增長。

But the EV industry is not the only new source of battery metal demand. Most of the world's major economies are accelerating their clean-energy plans and doing so with technologies that are increasingly metal-intensive, like energy storage.

但電動汽車行業並不是電池金屬需求的唯一新來源。世界上大多數主要經濟體都在加快他們的清潔能源計劃,並利用越來越多的金屬密集型技術(如能源儲存)來實現這一目標。

Clean energy has become a massive business worldwide — one that measures itself in the trillions of dollars. That's why select mining stocks could shine brightly in 2021.

清潔能源已經成為全球範圍內的一項龐大業務-一項以萬億美元衡量自身的業務。這就是為什麼精選的礦業類股可能在2021年大放異彩的原因。

One prominent example is Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX). Although the stock has doubled this year [i.e., in 2020], I expect it to continue moving higher in 2021. But Freeport won't be alone. Many other "battery metal" plays could dazzle investors over the next 12 months.

一個突出的例子是自由港麥克莫蘭(紐約證券交易所代碼:FCX)。儘管該股今年翻了一番[也就是説,在2020年],我預計2021年它將繼續走高。但自由港不會孤軍奮戰。在接下來的12個月裏,許多其他的“電池金屬”遊戲可能會讓投資者眼花繚亂。

UPDATE: That megatrend played out exactly as expected.

更新:這一大趨勢完全符合預期。

The battery metal sector charged ahead throughout the year — powering Freeport stock to gains as high as 70%. Many of the other battery metal plays I recommended in my investment services — like ERAMET S.A. (OTCMKTS:ERMAY) and Nickel 28 Capital (OTCMKTS:CONXF) — delivered even larger gains.

電池金屬板塊全年漲幅居前,推動自由港股價漲幅高達70%。我在我的投資服務中推薦的許多其他電池金屬遊戲-比如伊拉梅特公司(Eramet S.A.)(OTCMKTS:ERMAY)和鎳28大寫(OTCMKTS:CONXF)-實現了更大的收益。

This sector has been taking a breather during the last couple of months, but I'm expecting it to continue powering ahead in 2022.

在過去的幾個月裏,這個行業一直在喘息,但我預計它將在2022年繼續向前推進。

2021 Trend No. 2 — The Worldwide 5G Rollout

2021年趨勢2-全球5G推廣

Beginning-of-Year Thoughts: The burgeoning global 5G deployment should also provide some big success stories in 2021.

開年思緒:蓬勃發展的全球5G部署也應該在2021年提供一些重大的成功故事。

That's because 5G isn't simply the thing that comes after 4G. It is a uniquely powerful investment opportunity that will deliver outsized gains for many years to come.

這是因為5G不僅僅是4G之後的事情。這是一個獨特而強大的投資機會,將在未來多年帶來超乎尋常的收益。

The nascent 5G boom is a powerful megatrend that will provide a wide range of investment opportunities — beginning with constructing the actual 5G infrastructure throughout the world and then continuing with the vast range of technologies and business applications that the 5G infrastructure will enable and supercharge.

新生的5G熱潮是一個強大的大趨勢,將提供廣泛的投資機會-從在世界各地建設實際的5G基礎設施開始,然後繼續5G基礎設施將實現和增壓的廣泛技術和商業應用。

REPLAY NOW AVAILABLE: Eric Fry Just Dropped a Bombshell

現在可以重播:埃裏克·弗萊剛剛丟下了一個炸彈

Trillions of investment dollars will flow toward and through 5G infrastructure over the next several years, no matter how well or poorly the global economy is faring.

未來幾年,無論全球經濟表現如何良好或糟糕,數萬億美元的投資都將流向和通過5G基礎設施。

Simply stated, 5G is the newest of the make-or-break innovations that will accelerate technological advances.

簡而言之,5G是生死攸關的最新創新,將加速技術進步。

No company or country can afford to ignore 5G or to lag behind in constructing and utilizing it. This new network will quickly become the essential oxygen of the coming tech-based economy … and the dollars involved will be astronomical.

任何公司和國家都不能忽視5G,也不能在建設和使用5G方面落後。這一新的網絡將很快成為即將到來的以技術為基礎的經濟…的基本氧氣而且涉及的美元將是天文數字。

UPDATE: Like the battery metal boom, the 5G megatrend also delivered a wealth of investment gains during the year.

更新:與電池金屬熱潮一樣,5G大趨勢在年內也帶來了豐厚的投資收益。

Some of the specific 5G plays I recommended in my investment services — like Ciena (OTCMKTS:CIEN), Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Aviat Networks (NASDAQ:AVNW) — produced gains ranging from 40% to 80%.

我在我的投資服務中推薦的一些特定的5G業務-例如西耶納(OTCMKTS:Cien),諾基亞(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:NOK)和Aviat Networks納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:AVNW)-漲幅從40%到80%不等。

But I believe gains like these are just the "first fruits" of what this trend could deliver over the next few years. The 5G megatrend is still in its infancy, and I'm expecting it to produce big gains in 2022 and beyond.

但我相信,像這樣的收益只是這一趨勢在未來幾年可能帶來的“第一批成果”。5G大趨勢仍處於初級階段,我預計它將在2022年及以後帶來巨大收益。

2021 Trend No. 3 — "Easy Money" Makes Hard Money Shine

2021年趨勢3--“寬鬆貨幣”讓硬通貨大放異彩

Beginning-of-Year Thoughts: The third and final major trend that could pay dividends in 2021 is something we call "easy money."

開年思緒:第三個也是最後一個可能在2021年帶來紅利的大趨勢是我們所説的“寬鬆貨幣”(Easy Money)。

Not to be confused with Eddie Money, the late 1970s rock-'n'-roll star, easy money is a catch-all term to describe a condition of ample — or "excess" — liquidity in the financial system.

不要與埃迪·莫尼(Eddie Money)搞混,他是20世紀70年代末的搖滾明星,輕鬆賺錢是一個包羅萬象的術語,用來描述金融系統流動性充足或“過剩”的狀況。

The term refers to the result of fiscal and monetary policies that combine to cause "excess liquidity" to course through the U.S. financial system.

這一術語指的是財政和貨幣政策結合在一起,導致“過剩流動性”在美國金融體系中流動的結果。

Now Available: 4 Hypergrowth Stocks for 2022

現已推出:2022年4只超增長股票

Often, easy money conditions produce rising inflation, which usually produces a great, big rally in gold and other commodities. That's why the gold market may be offering one of the most promising trades of 2021.

通常,寬鬆的貨幣環境會導致通脹上升,這通常會導致黃金和其他大宗商品價格大幅上漲。這就是為什麼黃金市場可能會提供2021年最有前景的交易之一。

Although gold has been slumbering for the past several months, it may be reawakening soon… thanks partly to what I show in the chart below.

儘管過去幾個月黃金一直在沉睡,但可能很快就會重新甦醒。…這在一定程度上要歸功於我在下面的圖表中所顯示的內容。

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) just touched a new two-year low, and its price trend is unmistakable: It is heading lower.

這個美元指數(DXY)剛剛觸及兩年來的新低,其價格趨勢是毋庸置疑的:它正在走低。

A weakening dollar is a typical result of easy money conditions… and is typically good news for gold.

美元疲軟是寬鬆貨幣條件下的典型結果…對黃金來説,這通常是個好消息。

At least that's what history tells us.

至少這是歷史告訴我們的。

Before Jan. 1, stocks are headed…

在1月1日之前,股市將走向多倫多證券交易所(…)

If the dollar's downward trend gains momentum, the gold price should continue trending higher — and perhaps a lot higher.

如果美元下跌勢頭增強,金價應該會繼續走高--或許會高得多。

UPDATE: Okay, so two out of three ain't bad!

更新:好的,那麼三個人中有兩個還不錯!

Although this megatrend did blossom like I expected, gold stocks did not. Easy money policies from the Federal Reserve, combined with one of the most spectacular fiscal stimulus campaigns of all time — think "stimulus checks" — produced the highest inflation readings in three decades. And yet, the gold market merely yawned.

儘管這一大趨勢確實如我預期的那樣開花,但黃金類股卻沒有。美聯儲(Fed)的寬鬆貨幣政策,再加上有史以來最壯觀的財政刺激行動之一--想想“刺激支票”--產生了30年來最高的通脹讀數。然而,黃金市場只是打了個哈欠。

Notwithstanding the Fed's recent vow to fight inflation by raising interest rates three times next year and three times more in 2023, I expect inflation to continue heading higher for a while. But if the yellow metal isn't responding to the highest inflation readings in 30 years, will it respond to even higher readings?

儘管美聯儲最近誓言明年加息三次,2023年加息三次,但我預計通脹將在一段時間內繼續走高。但是,如果金價沒有對30年來最高的通脹讀數做出反應,它會對更高的讀數做出反應嗎?

Hard to say. For now, gold may be a better asset to wear around your neck than to put in your portfolio. I'm not counting it out completely in 2022, just not confident in its potential.

很難説。就目前而言,黃金可能是戴在脖子上的一種更好的資產,而不是放在你的投資組合中。我不會在2022年把它完全算出來,只是對它的潛力沒有信心。

Whatever comes our way, 2022 should be an exciting and, yes, profitable year!

無論我們的道路如何,2022年都應該是令人興奮的一年,是的,是有利可圖的一年!

Regards,

向您致敬,

Eric Fry

埃裏克·弗萊

P.S. Louis Navellier, Luke Lango and I just created a simple strategy that could beat the markets by at least 4X or more next year. It's a simple approach that could show you 2022's best-performing and most resilient stocks, BEFORE the new year arrives. Details here.

附註:路易斯·納維利耶(Louis Navellier)、盧克·蘭戈(Luke Lango)和我剛剛制定了一個簡單的策略,明年可能會以至少4倍或更多的速度擊敗市場。這是一個簡單的方法,可以在新年到來之前向你展示2022年表現最好、最具彈性的股票。詳情請看這裏。

On the date of publication, Eric Fry did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

在本文發表之日,埃裏克·弗萊(Eric Fry)沒有(直接或間接)持有本文提到的證券的任何頭寸。

Eric Fry is an award-winning stock picker with numerous "10-bagger" calls — in good markets AND bad. How? By finding potent global megatrends… before they take off. In fact, Eric has recommended 41 different 1,000%+ stock market winners in his career. Plus, he beat 650 of the world's most famous investors (including Bill Ackman and David Einhorn) in a contest. And today he's revealing his next potential 1,000% winner for free, right here.

埃裏克·弗萊是一個獲獎選股人無論是在好的市場還是在壞的市場,都有無數的“10-bagger”電話。多麼?通過發現強大的全球大趨勢…在他們起飛之前。事實上,埃裏克在他的職業生涯中推薦了41位不同的1000%以上的股市贏家。此外,他還在一場比賽中擊敗了650位世界上最著名的投資者(包括比爾·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)和大衞·艾因霍恩(David Einhorn))。今天他將揭曉他的下一個潛在的1000%贏家免費的,就在這裏。

The post Evaluating Our Megatrends of 2021 appeared first on InvestorPlace.

評估我們2021年大趨勢的帖子首先出現在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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