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LIVE MARKETS-Turkish banks: cap raises on the horizon?

LIVE MARKETS-Turkish banks: cap raises on the horizon?

活市場-土耳其銀行:上限上調在即?
reuters ·  2021/11/25 06:00

* European shares up 0.2%

*歐股上漲0.2%

* Utilities leads sectoral gainers

*公用事業引領行業贏家

* Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving

*華爾街因感恩節休市

Nov 25 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

11月25日-歡迎來到家裏,接受路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以通過market.Research@thomsonreurs.com與我們分享您的想法

TURKISH BANKS: CAP RAISES ON THE HORIZON?

土耳其銀行:上限上調在即?

The Turkish lira is licking its wounds following this week's historic drop to records lows but despite the apparent calm, local banks will face difficulties.

土耳其里拉在本週歷史性跌至創紀錄低點後正在舔傷口,但儘管表面上平靜,當地銀行仍將面臨困難。

Credit Suisse has taken a fresh look at the sector and even though it says all banks under its coverage "appear comfortable" on the liquidity front, it expects some banks to need capital injections or forbearance measures for capital ratios.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)重新審視了該行業,儘管它表示,其覆蓋範圍內的所有銀行在流動性方面“看起來都很舒服”,但它預計,一些銀行將需要注資或對資本比率採取忍耐措施。

"The regulator is likely to redefine the solvency related forbearances in a more favourable way, in case the depreciation pressure on TL continues. We no longer expect the regulator to allow dividend distribution from 2021 earnings," writes Ates Buldur, analyst at the Swiss investment bank.

這家瑞士投行分析師阿特斯·布爾杜爾(Ates Buldur)寫道:“監管機構可能會以更有利的方式重新定義與償付能力相關的準備金,以防TL繼續面臨貶值壓力。我們不再預計監管機構會允許從2021年盈利開始派息。”

"For state banks, another round of capital injection may be considered as well. We do not rule out the possibility of well-capitalized private banks carrying out rights issues to maintain sizeable buffers," he adds in a note.

他在一份報告中補充稱:“對於國有銀行來説,可能也會考慮新一輪注資。我們不排除資本充足的私人銀行進行配股以維持相當大緩衝的可能性。”

Every 10% depreciation in the lira has a negative impact on the banks' capital ranging for 25 to 80 basis points, according to Credit Suisse calculations based on management guidance.

根據瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)基於管理層指引進行的計算,里拉每貶值10%,對銀行資本的負面影響在25至80個基點之間。

In the snapshot you can see how Turkish banking stocks have underperformed the MSCI World Bank index.

在這張快照中,你可以看到土耳其銀行股的表現如何遜於摩根士丹利資本國際世界銀行指數(MSCI World Bank Index)。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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THE BULL MARKET IS NOT YET OVER (0949 GMT)

牛市尚未結束(格林威治時間0949)

Despite European stocks .STOXX are on track for their second-best annual returns since the 2008 financial crisis after year-to-date gains of more than 20%, analysts are not calling time out yet on the rally.

儘管歐洲股市.STOXX在今年迄今漲幅超過20%後,有望創下2008年金融危機以來第二好的年度回報,但分析師尚未呼籲漲勢暫停。

Joining fellow European market bulls from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas, strategists from Societe Generale are also optimistic on the European markets outlook for next year.

與摩根士丹利和法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)看漲歐洲市場的同行一樣,法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)的策略師們也對明年的歐洲市場前景持樂觀態度。

They predict a 9% upside to European stocks from current levels by end-2022, mainly driven by solid earnings growth in the backdrop of a supportive macro environment with cost inflation likely to peak soon.

他們預計,到2022年底,歐洲股市將從目前的水平上漲9%,主要是在成本通脹可能很快見頂的支持性宏觀環境下強勁的收益增長推動的。

Their top calls: Long European Green Deal basket, Long banks, Long European Capex, Long European buy backs index.

他們最看好的是:做多歐洲綠色交易籃子,做多銀行,做多歐洲資本支出,做多歐洲回購指數。

(Saikat Chatterjee)

(Saikat Chatterjee)

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TECH, FOOD, LUXURY AND BIG PHARMA TO THE RESCUE (0850 GMT)

科技、食品、奢侈品和大型製藥公司出手相救(格林威治時間0850)

A bounce in tech and heavyweight food, healthcare and luxury stocks is helping the STOXX 600 .STOXX bounce with somewhat more conviction today after yesterday's volatile session.

科技股和重量級食品、醫療保健和奢侈品類股的反彈,幫助STOXX 600指數在經歷了昨日的震盪後,今天反彈得更有信心。

Investors pondering risks associated with a resurgence of COVID cases in Europe and policy tightening in the U.S. are opting this morning for a defensive tilt, while the cyclical banks and oil stocks are seeing pressure to the downside.

考慮到歐洲COVID病例捲土重來和美國收緊政策相關風險的投資者今天上午選擇了防禦性傾斜,而週期性銀行和石油類股則面臨下行壓力。

The pan-European equity benchmark was last up 0.5% with shares such as chip firm ASML, drugmakers Roche and Astrazeneca, LVMH, and food giant Nestle all ranking among the top positive weights to the index, as you see in the snapshot.

泛歐股指上一次上漲0.5%,芯片公司ASML、製藥商羅氏(Roche)和阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)、路易威登(LVMH)和食品巨頭雀巢(Nestle)等股票都位居該指數正值最大的股票之列,正如你在快照中看到的那樣。

Well-received results from cognac maker Remy Cointreau and radiation therapy equipment maker Elekta also provided support, being their shares up 10% and 7% respectively.

白蘭地製造商人頭馬君度(Remy Cointreau)和放射治療設備製造商Elekta的業績也提供了支撐,這兩家公司的股價分別上漲了10%和7%。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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AMERICANS CAN GIVE THANKS (0812 GMT)

美國人可以感恩(格林威治時間0812)

It's Thanksgiving and the United States indeed has cause to celebrate. Data released on the eve of the holiday showed robust consumer spending, jobless claims at the lowest levels since 1969 and a 4.1% monthly rise in the core PCE inflation index.

今天是感恩節,美國確實有理由慶祝。假期前夕公佈的數據顯示,消費者支出強勁,初請失業金人數降至1969年以來的最低水平,核心PCE通脹指數月度上升4.1%。

The figures reinforced the picture of an economy speeding away from the rest of the world still struggling with COVID-19 fallout. So much so that anxiety about rising inflation has taken root at the U.S. Fed, minutes from its last meeting showed also on Wednesday .

這些數據強化了這樣一幅圖景:中國經濟正在加速遠離世界其他地區,仍在努力應對“新冠肺炎”的影響。同樣在週三,美聯儲上次會議的會議紀要顯示,對通脹上升的擔憂已經在美聯儲生根發芽。

It's a piquant contrast with Europe, where data just showed inflation and surging coronavirus infections hitting German consumer morale which is back at June lows . Japan's economy meanwhile contracted 3% in the third quarter -- a contrast with the U.S. 2%-plus third quarter expansion

這與歐洲形成了鮮明的對比,歐洲的數據剛剛顯示通脹和冠狀病毒感染激增打擊了德國消費者的士氣,德國消費者的士氣回到了6月的低點。與此同時,日本經濟在第三季度收縮了3%,這與美國第三季度超過2%的增長形成了鮮明對比

L1N2S60MU

L1N2S60MU

Stock markets in Asia and Europe are firmer riding on the coat-tails of Wall Street which ended higher on Wednesday. But one result of the U.S. data beats is a dollar in "beast mode" in the words of the Pepperstone brokerage in Australia. This morning it's just off 17-month highs versus the euro and five-year highs to the yen EUR=EBS JPY=D3 .

在週三收盤走高的華爾街的支持下,亞洲和歐洲的股市更加堅挺。但美國數據節節攀升的一個結果是,用澳大利亞Pepperstone經紀公司的話説,美元處於“野獸模式”。今早,歐元兑美元EUR=EBS JPY=D3剛剛脱離17個月高位,兑日圓EUR=EBS JPY=D3跌至五年高位.

It's bad news for emerging markets where many countries are seeing eye-popping inflation figures, potentially forcing more interest rate rises. South Korea on Thursday raised interest rates for the second time this year and further upped inflation forecasts.

這對新興市場來説是個壞消息,許多國家都看到了令人瞠目結舌的通脹數據,這可能會迫使更多的利率上調。韓國週四進行今年第二次升息,並進一步上調通脹預估。

Turkey of course is the outlier. President Erdogan's steadfast refusal to countenance higher interest rates has tipped his country into crisis. With the lira down 26% this month versus the dollar TRY=D3 , expect the usual references to Thanksgiving turkeys in news headlines and bank research notes

當然,土耳其是個異類。埃爾多安總統堅定不移地拒絕支持更高的利率,這讓他的國家陷入了危機。隨着里拉兑美元匯率本月下跌26%,預計新聞頭條和銀行研究報告中通常會提到感恩節火雞

.

.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

週四應該會為市場提供更多方向的關鍵事態發展:

-German coalition eyes return to debt limits from 2023, open to EU reforms

-德國聯合政府着眼於從2023年起恢復債務上限,對歐盟改革持開放態度

-Swedish PM resigns on first day in job, hopes for swift return

-瑞典首相上任第一天辭職,希望迅速回歸

-Sweden Riksbank rate decision

--瑞典央行利率決定

-ECB speakers: ECB President Christine Lagarde; ECB board members Frank Elderson, Philip Lane, Edouard Fernandez-Bollo

-歐洲央行發言人:歐洲央行總裁拉加德;歐洲央行董事會成員弗蘭克·埃爾德森(Frank Elderson)、菲利普·萊恩(Philip Lane)、愛德華·費爾南德斯-博洛(Edouard Fernandez-Bollo)

-Emerging markets: South Korea raises rates; Sri Lanka on hold

--新興市場:韓國升息;斯里蘭卡按兵不動

-Remy Cointreau raises annual outlook after H1 profit beat

-人頭馬君度在上半年利潤節節攀升後上調年度預期

; Italy to discuss KKR's move on TIM after binding bid

;意大利將討論KKR在具有約束力的競標後對TIM的行動

(Sujata Rao)

(Sujata Rao)

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EUROPE: STEADYING ABOVE THREE WEEK LOWS (0745 GMT)

歐洲:穩定在三週低點上方(格林威治時間0745)

After edging up just slightly yesterday following a volatile session, European shares look set for a second day of marginal gains that should help the STOXX .STOXX regional benchmark to steady above three-week lows.

在經歷了震盪的交易日後,歐洲股市昨日小幅上漲,似乎將迎來第二個交易日的小幅上漲,這應有助於STOXX.STOXX地區性基準指數穩定在三週低點上方。

Investors are trying to set aside concerns over new restrictions in Europe, even as Germany had record COVID cases, and look past Fed minutes showing more officials are open to speeding up bond-buying taper and move faster to raise rates.

投資者正試圖擱置對歐洲新限制措施的擔憂,儘管德國的COVID病例創下紀錄,但過去的美聯儲會議紀要顯示,更多官員對加快債券購買規模、加快加息持開放態度。

Wall Street will be shut for Thanksgiving, likely curbing activity across the board, but its positive close overnight and gains in Asian tech stocks bode well for risk sentiment here in Europe today.

華爾街將因感恩節休市,可能會全面抑制交易活動,但隔夜收盤積極,亞洲科技股上漲,這對今天歐洲的風險情緒來説是個好兆頭。

European stock futures were last up between 0.1% and 0.3%.

歐洲股指期貨最後一次上漲在0.1%至0.3%之間。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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