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LIVE MARKETS-Late on your BoE homework? Here's a cheat sheet

LIVE MARKETS-Late on your BoE homework? Here's a cheat sheet

直播市場-英國央行的家庭作業遲到了?這是一張小抄
reuters ·  2021/11/04 05:44

* STOXX, DAX hit all-time highs

*STOXX,DAX創歷史新高

* Fed tapers without tantrums

*美聯儲在沒有發脾氣的情況下縮減資產購買規模

* Eyes on BoE policy decision

*關注英國央行的政策決定

* U.S. stock futures up after record close

*美國股指期貨在創紀錄的收盤後上漲

Nov 4 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

11月4日-歡迎來到家裏,接受路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以通過market.Research@thomsonreurs.com與我們分享您的想法

LATE ON YOUR BOE HOMEWORK? HERE'S A CHEAT SHEET (0934 GMT)

京東方的家庭作業遲到了嗎?這是一張小抄(格林威治時間0934)

If you haven't managed yet to prepare for possible market reactions to the crucial Bank of England policy announcement at 1200 GMT today, this cheat sheet from Vanda Research macro strategist Viraj Patel may turn out useful.

如果你還沒有準備好應對今天格林威治時間1200時英國央行(Bank Of England)關鍵政策聲明可能出現的市場反應,萬達研究(Vanda Research)宏觀策略師維拉傑·帕特爾(Viraj Patel)的這份小抄可能會被證明是有用的。

Patel says on Twitter: "Positioning for hawkish BoE trades is crowded now especially front-end & $GBP. No BoE hike or dovish hike will see big squeeze in short duration trades".

帕特爾在Twitter上表示:“現在,對英國央行鷹派交易的頭寸非常擁擠,尤其是在前端&1英鎊。無論英國央行加息還是鴿派加息,短期交易都不會受到很大擠壓。”

Beyond the "hike or no hike" issue, Patel says there are many moving parts and that trading will be volatile. In detail, he says investors should watch out for:

帕特爾説,除了“加不加”的問題外,還有許多活動部件,交易將是不穩定的。具體而言,他表示,投資者應該注意以下幾點:

1. MPC dissenters (2/3 expected if BoE hikes)?

1.貨幣政策委員會持不同政見者(如果英國央行加息,預計會有2/3)?

2. Early end to QE? (ends in Dec)

2.提前結束量化寬鬆?(12月結束)

3. Pace of hikes "gradual & limited"

3.加息步伐“漸進而有限”

4. GDP growth downgrades?

4.GDP增速下調?

5. Inflation persistence beyond 1H22?

5.通脹持續時間超過1h22?

More reading here:

更多信息請點擊此處閲讀:

BoE faces decision day, caught between inflation and slowdown risks

英國央行面臨決定日,夾在通脹和經濟放緩風險之間

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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DAX RE-JOINS THE RECORD HIGH CLUB, VOL DROPS (0842 GMT)

DAX重新加入創紀錄高位的俱樂部,銷量下降(格林威治時間0842)

European shares are off to a positive start and among the highlights are the DAX .GDAXI re-joining the club of indices at record highs and the euro zone's volatility gauge .V2TX falling further to its lowest since mid-June.

歐洲股市開局積極,其中一個亮點是DAX指數.GDAXI重新加入創紀錄高位的指數俱樂部,歐元區波動率指數.V2TX進一步跌至6月中旬以來的最低水平.

The message from the Federal Reserve was taken on the dovish side and now investors can focus on riding corporate earnings strength without worrying too much about the next move at the world's most powerful central bank.

美聯儲(Fed)發出的信息被認為是偏向鴿派的,現在投資者可以專注於利用企業盈利優勢,而不必太擔心世界上最強大的央行的下一步行動。

In the UK, the FTSE 100 .FTSE edged up 0.3% ahead of a truly crucial policy decision at the Bank of England.

在英國,富時100指數(FTSE 100)小幅上漲0.3%,英格蘭銀行(Bank Of England)將做出真正關鍵的政策決定。

Here's your opening snapshot:

以下是你的開場快照:

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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DOVISH FED TAPER, NOW HAWKISH BOE? (0746 GMT)

鴿派美聯儲縮減量化寬鬆,現在鷹派英國央行?(格林威治時間0746)

Well done Mr. Powell! The Federal Reserve Chair looks to have managed to sell the dialling back of the bank's massive stimulus programme as a dovish taper and investors can now return to the joys of stock markets at record highs.

幹得好,鮑威爾先生!美聯儲(Fed)主席似乎已成功地將美聯儲大規模刺激計劃的回調推銷為鴿派縮減規模,投資者現在可以重返創紀錄高位的股市。

The U.S. policy package contained no nasty surprises — the $15 billion reduction in monthly purchases was consensual and the inflation is "transitory" message was reiterated.

美國的一攬子政策沒有包含任何令人不快的意外-每月減少150億美元的購買量是雙方一致同意的,通脹是“暫時的”信息被重申。

As a result, European stock futures point to new all-time peaks after Wall Street notched another record close. And with earnings still squeezing out positive surprises and real yields deeply sub-zero, many see no choice but to keep investing in equities.

因此,在華爾街再創新高後,歐洲股指期貨創下歷史新高。由於盈利仍在擠出積極的驚喜,實際收益率嚴重低於零,許多人認為別無選擇,只能繼續投資股票。

With the Fed out of the way, it's D-day for the Bank of England

隨着美聯儲的退出,英國央行(Bank Of England)迎來了諾曼底登陸日

which could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic hit.

這可能成為自冠狀病毒大流行以來世界上第一個提高利率的大型央行。

Poland surprised on Wednesday, with its biggest rate hike since 2000

波蘭週三出人意料地宣佈了自2000年以來最大幅度的加息。

jolting its banking stocks to all-time peaks.

將其銀行類股推高至歷史最高點。

Speaking of banks, Societe Generale saw better-than-expected Q3 profit growth, driven by strong corporate and investment banking revenues and lower bad loans.

談到銀行,法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)第三季度利潤增長好於預期,得益於強勁的企業和投資銀行收入以及較低的不良貸款。

Credit Suisse

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)

on the other hand, posted a 21% fall in Q3 net profit hit by higher taxes and charges to settle allegations of corruption surrounding loans to Mozambique.

另一方面,該公司公佈第三季度淨利潤下降21%,原因是税收和費用增加,以了結圍繞莫桑比克貸款的腐敗指控。

Finally, Ether ETH=BTSP , the world's No. 2 cryptocurrency, scaled another all-time high, rising as high as $4,670.81.

最後,全球第二大加密貨幣Ether ETH=BTSP再創歷史新高,最高漲至4,670.81美元。

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

週四應該會為市場提供更多方向的關鍵事態發展:

* Swiss drugmaker Roche agreed to buy a nearly one-third voting stake held by cross-town rival Novartis in itself for $20.7 billion

*瑞士製藥商羅氏(Roche)同意以207億美元收購跨城競爭對手諾華(Novartis)本身持有的近三分之一有表決權的股份

* Norway Central Bank meeting

*挪威央行會議

* Bank of England announces rate decision

*英國央行宣佈利率決定

* ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnable speak – 1245 GMT

*歐洲央行總裁拉加德和管委會成員伊莎貝爾·施納布爾發表講話-1245GMT

* German industrial output/manufacturing

*德國工業產出/製造業

* Final services PMI everywhere

*各地最終服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)

* Euro zone PPI

*歐元區PPI

* OPEC-plus meeting

*OPEC+會議

* South Africa's medium term budget statement, Czech National Bank meeting

*南非中期預算聲明,捷克國家銀行會議

* U.S. trade balance/weekly jobless

*美國貿易收支/每週失業人數

* Europe earnings: Amundi, Banco BPM, Commerzbank, BT, Euronext, Hannover Re, ING, Societe Generale, Telefonica, WizzAir

*歐洲收益:Amundi、Banco BPM、德國商業銀行、BT、泛歐交易所、漢諾威再保險、荷蘭國際集團、法國興業銀行、Telefonica、WizzAir

* U.S. earnings: Uber, AirBnb

*美國收益:優步,愛彼迎

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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EUROPE: NEW RECORD PEAK IN SIGHT (0734 GMT)

歐洲:創紀錄的峯值在望(格林威治時間0734)

European shares look set to open at fresh all-time highs this morning following another record-breaking session on Wall Street after the U.S. Federal Reserve engineered an orderly start to unwinding its massive stimulus programme.

歐洲股市今天上午開盤似乎將創下歷史新高,此前華爾街股市再次創下紀錄,此前美國聯邦儲備委員會(美聯儲,FED)設計了一個有序的開始,以解除其大規模刺激計劃。

Futures on the DAX rose to an all-time peak and were last up 0.5% and Euro STOXX 50 futures added 0.6%.

DAX期貨上漲至歷史新高,最後上漲0.5%,Euro STOXX 50期貨上漲0.6%。

FTSE futures gained 0.4% ahead of a crucial Bank of England meeting at which it could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic.

富時指數期貨上漲0.4%,隨後英國央行(Bank Of England)將召開一次重要會議,屆時英國央行可能成為自冠狀病毒大流行以來世界上第一家加息的大型央行。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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