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TLRY Stock: Why Meme Traders Should Buy the Dip In Tilray

TLRY Stock: Why Meme Traders Should Buy the Dip In Tilray

TLRY股票:為什麼Meme交易員應該買入Tilray中的DIP
InvestorPlace ·  2021/10/28 06:00

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

InvestorPlace-股市新聞、股票諮詢和交易提示

So-called meme stocks have a very bad reputation among experienced investors, and for good reason. However, Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) stock is one meme stock that is much more than a pump-and-dump scheme.

所謂的表情包股票在經驗豐富的投資者中名聲很差,這是有充分理由的。然而,Tilray(納斯達克股票代碼:TLRY)股票是一種表情包股票,它不僅僅是一種哄抬和拋售的計劃。

Source: Jarretera / Shutterstock.com

來源:Jarretera/Shutterstock.com

I recently wrote a story comparing meme stocks GameStop (NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC). I got a lot of grief for my belief that both AMC and GameStop are terrible long-term investments. But just because most meme stocks are garbage investments doesn't mean all of them are.

我最近寫了一篇文章比較了迷因股票遊戲停止(紐約證券交易所代碼:GME)和AMC娛樂公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:AMC)。我認為AMC和GameStop都是糟糕的長期投資,這讓我感到非常悲痛。但是,僅僅因為大多數表情包都是垃圾投資,並不意味着所有的表情包都是垃圾投資。

TLRY stock skyrocketed from under $10 to as high as $67 in a matter of weeks in early 2021. Since that social media-fueled trading frenzy, Tilray shares have pulled back to under $11. They are now down 36% in the past six months alone.

2021年初,TLRY的股價在幾周內從不到10美元飆升至67美元。自從社交媒體引發的交易狂潮以來,Tilray的股價已經回落到11美元以下。僅在過去六個月裏,Tilray的股價就下跌了36%。

I wouldn't recommend buying the dip in most meme stocks. But there are several reasons why investors shouldn't lump TLRY stock in with the rest of the meme stock pump-and-dumps.

我不建議買入大多數表情包股票的下跌。但投資者不應將TLRY股票與其他迷因股票混為一談的原因有幾個。

TLRY Stock Merger Synergies

TLRY股票合併協同效應

Tilray's high-profile merger with Aphria closed in May. The Aphria merger creates unparalleled scale for Tilray among Canadian cannabis stocks. It also creates cost synergies that play an important role in Tilray's important march to earnings before interest, taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) profitability.

Tilray與Aphria的高調合並於5月完成。Aphria的合併為Tilray創造了加拿大大麻庫存中無與倫比的規模。它還創造了成本協同效應,在Tilray實現利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)盈利的重要進程中發揮了重要作用。

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"We anticipate multiple expansion as the potential Tilray/Aphria merger would enable the combined company to build scale, gain efficiencies, combine their cash position, and deliver consistent positive EBITDA," Bank of America analyst Heather Balsky wrote in a research note.

美國銀行(Bank Of America)分析師希瑟·巴爾斯基(Heather Balsky)在一份研究報告中寫道:“我們預計會出現多次擴張,因為潛在的Tilray/Aphria合併將使合併後的公司能夠擴大規模,提高效率,合併現金狀況,並實現一致的正EBITDA。”

Tilray has estimated the merger will create $80 million in synergies. In the first half of 2021, the company had realized only $55 million of those synergies, Balsky estimated.

Tilray估計,合併將創造8000萬美元的協同效應。巴爾斯基估計,2021年上半年,該公司只實現了5500萬美元的協同效應。

"We assume a benefit starting in [the second half of the fiscal year] now that the company has turned through legacy-Tilray inventory," she wrote.

“我們承擔了一項福利,從[本財年下半年]現在公司已經完成了遺留的Tilray庫存,“她寫道。

Bank of America has a "buy" rating and $15 price target for TLRY stock.

美國銀行對TLRY股票的評級為“買入”,目標價為15美元。

International Growth Opportunities

國際增長機遇

Today, Canadian cannabis companies are primarily focused on growing revenue and market share in Canada. Canada legalized cannabis back in 2018. Up to this point, pricing and growth in the Canadian market has been a big disappointment for investors.

今天,加拿大大麻公司主要關注的是在加拿大不斷增長的收入和市場份額。加拿大早在2018年就將大麻合法化。到目前為止,加拿大市場的定價和增長一直令投資者大失所望。

In the years following Canadian legalization, Aphria focused on flower and vape sales. Lately, the company has expanded into edibles. By contrast, Tilray has focused on an asset-light model centered on developing consumer brands with meaningful pricing power.

在加拿大合法化後的幾年裏,Aphria專注於鮮花和蒸氣的銷售。最近,該公司已經擴展到食品領域。相比之下,Tilray專注於輕資產模式,專注於開發具有有意義的定價權的消費品牌。

Aphria also had a large international distribution business, something that differentiated it from many Canadian cannabis peers. For now, Canadian growth is lagging. Federal cannabis reform in the U.S. has disappointed. International demand outside of the U.S. may be the best growth source for Canadian cannabis stocks like Tilray. In that sense, Aphria could be a critical growth source in the near-term.

Aphria還擁有龐大的國際分銷業務,這使其有別於許多加拿大大麻同行。就目前而言,加拿大的增長是滯後的。美國聯邦大麻改革令人失望。美國以外的國際需求可能是Tilray等加拿大大麻庫存的最佳增長來源。從這個意義上説,Aphria可能會在短期內成為一個關鍵的增長來源。

U.S. Expansion Opportunities

美國的擴張機會

If no for the legalization issue, the U.S. cannabis market would be the biggest and best opportunity in the North American cannabis market. Unfortunately, cannabis remains federally banned in the U.S. All Canadian cannabis companies can do is prepare to enter the U.S. market when and if legalization occurs.

如果合法化問題上沒有,美國大麻市場將是北美大麻市場最大、最好的機會。不幸的是,美國聯邦政府仍然禁止大麻。加拿大大麻公司所能做的就是準備在大麻合法化後進入美國市場。

Tilray took a major step in that direction in August when it acquired convertible notes representing a potential minority stake in U.S. multi-state cannabis operator Medmen Enterprises (OTC:MMNFF).

Tilray在8月份收購了代表美國多州大麻運營商潛在少數股權的可轉換票據,朝着這個方向邁出了重要的一步梅德曼企業(場外交易:MMNFF)。

Morningstar analyst Kristoffer Inton says Tilray's decision to issue undervalued shares to fund the Medmen investment wasn't ideal.

晨星(Morningstar)分析師克里斯托弗·英頓(Kristoffe Inton)説,蒂爾雷決定發行估值過低的股票為MedMen的投資提供資金,這一決定並不理想。

"Nevertheless, we still see the deal as a net positive, accounting for about $1 to our fair value estimate while giving Tilray a toehold into the attractive U.S. market upon a change to federal law, which we view as likely by the end of calendar year 2023," Inton wrote in a research note.

Inton在一份研究報告中寫道:“儘管如此,我們仍然認為這筆交易是一個淨利好,比我們的公允價值估計高出約1美元,同時讓Tilray在聯邦法律修改後進入有吸引力的美國市場站穩腳跟,我們認為這有可能在2023年底之前完成,”Inton在一份研究報告中寫道。

Inton says the U.S. market has the best growth potential of any global cannabis market.

因頓説,美國市場是全球大麻市場中增長潛力最大的。

"We expect federal law will eventually be changed to allow states to choose the legality of cannabis within their borders," he says.

他説:“我們預計聯邦法律最終將被修改,允許各州在其境內選擇大麻的合法性。”

Morningstar has a "buy" rating and $17 fair value estimate for TLRY stock.

晨星對TLRY股票的評級為“買入”,公允價值估計為17美元。

How To Play TLRY Stock

如何打好TLRY股票

If you were trading TLRY stock as a meme stock in February, it's a completely different investment these days. It may not be trending on social media. It may not have bullish momentum. And it probably won't make you rich overnight.

如果你在2月份將TLRY股票作為表情包股票進行交易,那麼如今這是一種完全不同的投資。這可能不會在社交媒體上流行起來。它可能沒有看漲勢頭。而且這可能不會讓你一夜暴富。

But if you are looking for a high-quality play on a high-risk market like cannabis that has massive long-term growth potential, TLRY stock is a top-tier cannabis stock to buy on the dip.

但如果你在大麻這樣具有巨大長期增長潛力的高風險市場上尋找高質量的投資機會,TLRY股票是在低迷時買入的頂級大麻股票。

On the date of publication, Wayne Duggan did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,韋恩·達根(Wayne Duggan)沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. Mr. Duggan is the author of the book "Beating Wall Street With Common Sense," which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market.

韋恩·達根(Wayne Duggan)自2016年以來一直是《美國新聞與世界報道》(U.S.News&World Report)的投資撰稿人,也是Benzinga的專職作家,他在Benzinga撰寫了7000多篇文章。達根先生是“用常識擊敗華爾街”(Bricing Wall Street With Common Sense)一書的作者,該書關注的是投資心理和超越股市的實用策略。

The post TLRY Stock: Why Meme Traders Should Buy the Dip In Tilray appeared first on InvestorPlace.

TLRY股票:為什麼Meme交易員應該購買Tilray的浸漬的帖子首先出現在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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