According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, temperatures in most parts of the United States will be above average this winter.

The US forecast for a warm winter eased the rise in oil and gas prices caused by supply and global energy tensions, followed by a fall in oil prices from three-year highs and a slight decline in natural gas.

The price of oil is down, but the rest of the time is bullish.

Oil and gas prices hit a three-year high of $86 a barrel on Thursday, but then tumbled by $2 as US forecasts for a warm winter this year curbed a rise in oil prices driven by global supply shortages and energy tightening.

Winter temperatures in most parts of the United States will be above average, according to a report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Bob Yawger, director of Mizuho American Energy Futures, said the report showed that drier and warmer winters in the south and east of the United States were putting pressure on the overall climate in the United States, Reuters reported.

Oil prices fell $2.31 to $83.51 after hitting $86.10, the highest since October 2018, at 11:37 et (15:37 GMT). West Texas Intermediate fell $2.40 to $81.02.

Traders who set $86 as the selling price have taken the opportunity to make a profit, so oil prices have plummeted, says Louis Dickson of Ruizide energy management consultancy.

Oil prices are also under pressure from falling coal and natural gas prices. In china, coal prices continued their decline last week, falling 11% as Beijing hinted that it might intervene in prices to cool the market.

Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at brokerage OANDA, said that as coal and natural gas prices fell, the technical aspect of the relative strength indicator was still in an overbought area, and the possibility of a substantial fall in oil prices was still on the rise. Still, some analysts are calling for a further rise in oil prices as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC+) is likely to stick to its plan to gradually increase production, while demand is expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.

Ruizide Energy Management Consulting said oil prices were bullish for the rest of the year, and Giovanni Staunovo of UBS said in a report that he expected Brent crude to trade at $90 a barrel in December and March next year.

Lower demand for natural gas in warm winter

Natural gas prices edged higher early on October 22nd after the market closed up 0.62 per cent after falling on weather forecasts for a warm winter and higher-than-expected natural gas reserves last week.

At 08:24 GMT on October 22nd, December natural gas futures traded at $5.379, up $0.033.

Winter temperatures in most parts of the United States will be higher than average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. As La Nina has lasted for a second winter, temperatures in the southern and most eastern parts of the United States are above average.

Warm winter conditions in the east may minimize heating demand, while higher-than-average winter temperatures in the south require neither heating nor cooling.

The outlook for final rationing prices and deliverability risks of natural gas depends on how cold the winter is, and if natural gas prices are to remain stable and demand is normal, the winter must now be 10 per cent colder than normal, or be noticeably cold at the beginning of the winter, Energy Aspects said.