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LIVE MARKETS-Indian summer: CPI, mortgage rates put the heat on

LIVE MARKETS-Indian summer: CPI, mortgage rates put the heat on

直播市場-印度夏季:CPI,抵押貸款利率升温
reuters ·  2021/10/13 10:44

* Dow, S&P 500 red; Nasdaq gains

*道瓊斯指數,標準普爾500紅色;納斯達克上漲

* Financials weakest S&P sector; tech leads gainers

*金融類股是標準普爾板塊中最弱的;科技股領漲

* Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.6%

*Euro STOXX 600指數上漲約0.6%

* Gold up; dollar, crude, bitcoin fall

*金價上漲;美元、原油、比特幣下跌

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.54%

*美國10年期公債收益率~1.54%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

歡迎您收看路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以通過market.Research@thomsonreurs.com與我們分享您的想法

INDIAN SUMMER: CPI, MORTGAGE RATES PUT THE HEAT ON (1042 EDT/1442 GMT)

印度夏季:CPI,抵押貸款利率升温(美國東部時間1042/格林威治時間1442)

Leaves are falling - and even snow in some parts of the country - but consumer prices and mortgage rates are pushing the mercury higher.

樹葉正在飄落,該國部分地區甚至下雪,但消費者價格和抵押貸款利率正在推高水銀。

The prices U.S. urban consumers pay for a basket of goods

美國城市消費者購買一籃子商品的價格

USCPI=ECI rose by 0.4% in August, an acceleration from the previous month and hotter than the 0.3% consensus.

USCPI=ECI 8月上升0.4%,較前月加快,且高於0.3%的普遍預期。

"We need to bifurcate and see where the inflation is," writes Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors. "It's not a one-size fits all answer."

Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁奧利弗·普爾舍(Oliver Pursche)寫道:“我們需要分叉,看看通脹在哪裏。”“這不是放之四海而皆準的答案。”

Fair enough, so let's delve deeper into the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report. A 6.4% drop in air fares - a predictable adjustment following the spikes in early summer - was more than offset by gains in housing, new cars and gasoline, among others.

這很合理,所以讓我們更深入地研究勞工部的消費者物價指數(CPI)報告。機票價格下降6.4%-這是初夏飆升後的可預見的調整-被住房、新車和汽油等方面的上漲所抵消。

Core CPI USCPFY=ECI , which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at 4% year-over-year, inline with expectations.

剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心CPI USCPFY=ECI同比上漲4%,符合預期。

As to whether this report is likely to accelerate or have little effect on the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected timeline for tightening its monetary policy, opinions differ.

至於這份報告是否可能加速或對美國聯邦儲備委員會(美聯儲,FED)收緊貨幣政策的預期時間表影響不大,各方意見不一.

"It reassures the Fed because there were no surprises," Pursche adds.

“這讓美聯儲放心,因為沒有什麼意外,”珀舍補充道。

But Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, isn't quite so sure.

但斯巴達資本(Spartan Capital)首席市場經濟學家彼得·卡迪羅(Peter Cardillo)就不那麼確定了。

"Inflation is going to be more long-lasting than the Fed expects," Cardillo says. "In my opinion this accelerates the tapering move and we’ll probably get an announcement next month."

卡迪羅説:“通脹將比美聯儲預期的更為持久。”“在我看來,這加快了縮減量化寬鬆的步伐,我們可能會在下個月收到一份聲明。”

Minutes from the central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting could shed light in that direction.

央行最近一次貨幣政策會議的會議紀要可能會揭示這一方向。

Core CPI, shown along with other major indicators in the graphic below, continue to soar well above the Fed's average annual 2% inflation target:

與下圖所示其他主要指標一起顯示的核心CPI繼續飆升,遠高於美聯儲年均2%的通脹目標:

Separately, demand for home loans eked out a nominal gain last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), despite yet another uptick in rates.

另外,根據抵押貸款銀行家協會(MBA)的數據,儘管利率再次上升,但上週對住房貸款的需求勉強維持了名義增長。

The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI grew by 4 basis points to 3.18%, marking the third consecutive weekly gain.

平均30年期固定合約利率USMG=ECI上漲4個基點至3.18%,為連續第三週上漲.

Even so, applications for loans to purchase homes

即便如此,購房貸款申請

USMGPI=ECI jumped by 1.5%, a gain that was nearly completely offset by a 0.5% decline in refi demand USMGR=ECI , which constitutes the bulk of the total.

USMGPI=ECI跳升1.5%,這一漲幅幾乎完全被再融資需求下降0.5%所抵消,再融資需求USMGR=ECI佔總需求的大部分。

"Mortgage rates reached their highest level since June 2021, but application activity changed little this week," notes Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at MBA.

MBA負責經濟和行業預測的副總裁喬爾·坎(Joel Kan)指出:“抵押貸款利率達到了2021年6月以來的最高水平,但本週申請活動變化不大。”

Nancy Vanden Hauten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, believes this data points to resiliency in the housing market and suggests home sales could bounce back in September from August's drop.

牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)首席經濟學家南希·範登·豪滕(Nancy Vanden Hauten)認為,這一數據表明房地產市場具有彈性,並表明9月份房屋銷售可能會從8月份的下降中反彈。

"We expect the housing market to continue to be buffeted by the crosscurrents of strong demand, limited supply and high prices," Hauten writes. "While mortgage rates remain relatively low on a historical basis, the recent backup in mortgage rates will take an added toll on homebuying affordability at the margin."

豪騰寫道:“我們預計房地產市場將繼續受到強勁需求、有限供應和高價格的逆流衝擊。”“雖然抵押貸款利率在歷史上保持在相對較低的水平,但最近抵押貸款利率的回升將對購房負擔能力造成額外的影響。”

Wall Street appeared to be dancing the same tango it's been doing over the last few sessions - starting strong then steadily running out of gas.

華爾街似乎在跳着過去幾個交易日一直跳的探戈--開始強勁,然後逐漸耗盡汽油。

Most recently, all three major U.S. stock indexes were well off their opening highs.

最近,美國三大股指都遠低於開盤高點。

The S&P 500 and the Dow were dragged into negative territory by weak financial stocks .SPSY , while a meager gain in tech

標準普爾500指數和道瓊斯指數受疲軟的金融股.SPSY拖累跌至負值區域,而科技股小幅上漲.

.SPLRCT is helping to keep the Nasdaq modestly green.

.SPLRCT正在幫助納斯達克指數保持適度綠色。

(Stephen Culp)

(斯蒂芬·卡爾普)

*****

*****

INITIAL U.S. STRENGTH FADES, INDEXES TURN MIXED (1005 EDT/1405 GMT)

美國最初的強勢消退,指數漲跌互現(美國東部時間1005/格林威治時間1405)

After an opening push higher, Wall Street's main indexes have turned mixed. This as investors are digesting a solid rise in monthly consumer prices, and a dip in bond yields. .N

在開盤走高之後,華爾街主要股指漲跌互現。與此同時,投資者正在消化月度消費者價格指數(CPI)的穩步上漲和債券收益率的下降。.N

The Dow .DJI and S&P 500 .SPX are now trading down on the day. The Nasdaq .IXIC , although already off its early high, is being boosted by tech stocks .SPLRCT , and is still in positive territory.

道瓊斯指數.DJI和標準普爾500指數.SPX目前正在下跌。Nasdaq指數.IXIC雖然已經脱離早盤高位,但正受到科技股.SPLRCT的提振,仍處於正值區間.

Of note, the major indexes, as well as the S&P tech sector, have all fallen three-straight days.

值得注意的是,主要股指以及標準普爾科技股都連續三天下跌。

Meanwhile, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR back down to the 1.54% area, financials .SPSY are taking the biggest hit among S&P sectors.

與此同時,隨着美國10年期公債收益率US10YT=RR回落至1.54%區域,金融股.SPSY在標普板塊中受到的打擊最大.

Here is where markets stand in early trade:

以下是市場在早盤交易中的立場:

(Terence Gabriel)

(特倫斯·加布里爾)

*****

*****

NASDAQ 100 TRIPLE-Qs: GOING WITH THE FLOW (0907 EDT/1307 GMT)

納斯達克100三季度:隨波逐流(美國東部時間0907/格林威治時間1307)

The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.O , which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index .NDX , is down around 6% from its early September high. In so doing, it has also violated a monthly support line from its March 2020 low.

追蹤Nasdaq 100指數.NDX的景順QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.O較9月初高點下跌約6%。在這樣做的同時,它也突破了從2020年3月低點開始的月度支撐線。

Meanwhile, one indicator that incorporates both price and volume, the Money Flow index (MFI), continues to track within converging trendlines:

與此同時,一個同時包含價格和交易量的指標--貨幣流動指數(MFI)--繼續在趨同的趨勢線內追蹤:

On a monthly basis, and since early 2018, the MFI has been trapped between a resistance line from its 2014 high and a support line from its 2009 low.

按月計算,自2018年初以來,MFI一直被困在2014年高點的阻力線和2009年低點的支撐線之間。

After once again topping shy of the resistance line this past August, the MFI appears on track for another test of the support line. Another test of that support line could suggest risk for greater QQQ weakness.

在過去的8月份再次跌破阻力線後,MFI似乎走上了再次測試支撐線的軌道。對該支撐線的另一次測試可能暗示QQQ更疲軟的風險。

However, if the support line can continue to work its magic, and the MFI can bottom, a significant QQQ low may once again be found.

然而,如果支撐線能夠繼續發揮它的魔力,MFI可以觸底,QQQ可能會再次出現顯著的低點。

Conversely, an MFI support line break will end what has been a consistent pattern, and instead suggest potential that QQQ weakness may become a waterfall slide.

相反,MFI支撐線的突破將結束一貫的模式,轉而暗示QQQ疲軟可能會變成瀑布下滑。

(Terence Gabriel)

(特倫斯·加布里爾)

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FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0907 EDT/1307 GMT - CLICK HERE:

有關美國東部時間0907/格林威治時間1307之前週三現場市場的帖子,請單擊此處:

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ QQQ10132021 Earlytrade10132021 Inflation MBA

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Terence Gabriel是路透社的市場分析師。本文僅代表其個人觀點。)

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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